If you're willing to let Nouriel Roubini think you're "deluding" yourself, or have Charlie Munger call you a "jerk," there remains a precious path to investment gains that might just have your name on it.
In case you haven't noticed, this massive, decadelong bull market in gold and silver continues to march onward -- to the complete befuddlement of long-standing bubble-callers the world over.
One choice is to steer clear of the sector altogether, just as naysayers have advised at every step along the way. However, if gold easily surpasses $2,000 (and silver notches $50) over the next few years, then you will have missed out on an incredibly historic bull market in the miners and related equities.
The sour taste of victory
As an advocate for gold exposure during an era when the mere mention of the metal still draws dismissive ridicule, I have faced an uphill battle getting my outlook and perspective to reach those that I believe need it most. Undeterred, my unpopular macroeconomic outlook and predictions for precious metals has garnered a gradually expanding audience.
You might think I'd be dancing a celebratory jig now that $1,345 gold has vindicated my bullish commentary from the past several years, but nothing could be further from the truth. Gold's rise is for me a somber affair, marking as it does the grossly irresponsible stewardship of our free-floating paper currency.
No one wins when a delevering financial system -- perched as it still is atop a broken foundation of irreparably toxic derivatives -- triggers widespread impoverishment via the competitive debasement of currencies.
I believe we are witness to a tragic chapter of American history. Under the circumstances, dancing about because my investments have risen hardly seems appropriate.
My cards are on the table
While many onlookers have been stymied by each successive wave of rising precious metal prices, not everyone has been wrong about gold and silver.
I advocate a simple, long-term, buy-and-hold approach to precious metals exposure, and I recognize the inherent uncertainty in telegraphing near-term movements. But for investors who sought favorable entry points, I hope that these past assessments have proven valuable.
My relevant stock picks from as early as 2006 -- including 2007 noteworthy performers Agnico-Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM ) and Eldorado Gold (NYSE: EGO ) -- are still active in my primary Motley Fool CAPS portfolio for all to see. 89% of the stock picks in my subsequent silver miner portfolio have outperformed the S&P 500. So I'm not accused of cherry-picking; all of my calls, good and bad, can be seen on those pages.
Although, stock picking can be relatively easy within a bullish trend of this magnitude, one runaway success -- the 950% appreciation of Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW ) since I issued my value-oriented appeal at $2.51 per share -- has reportedly helped some of my readers to outsized gains within the sector.
In September 2009, after calling for a monster breakout to fresh all-time highs, gold surged 28% over the ensuing three months to reach $1,220 by early December. With gold above $1,200 per ounce, I expressed caution with respect to a potential correction. Over the next two months, gold dipped to beneath $1,060 per ounce. In August of this year, with gold hovering near $1,230, my position was that we were on the verge of a parabolic surge in gold. Here beneath $1,350 per ounce, the move doesn't count as parabolic -- yet.
Last call for the gold and silver rocket
There is a chorus of precious metal investors and commentators who have been on the correct side of this bull market to date, including names like Jim Rogers, Jim Sinclair, Eric Sprott, James Turk, Peter Schiff, John Paulson, and others. What do they all have in common? They each remain resolutely bullish regarding further remaining upside for precious metals.
To be sure, getting involved at this stage of the bull market will be scary, as volatility will be a constant. Absent confidence in the broader trend, gold and silver may still not be for you.
Feel free to go on swallowing all the bubblicious talk about gold being an overcrowded fear trade for a useless, barbarous relic that has no fundamental strength to its outlook. But before deciding not to dabble in straightforward value plays like Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY ) or Pan American Silver (Nasdaq: PAAS ) on the basis of such perspectives, ask whether the weight of prior inaccuracy and persistent befuddlement hangs heavily upon the necks of the precious metal naysayers.
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