You Can Do Better Than 16%

The cash registers will be ringing this holiday season -- in cyberspace.

Market research giant Forrester is projecting that holiday sales will grow 16% this year, double the 8% pace it had predicted a year ago. It's also more than three times greater than the 5% spurt reported during the 2008 holiday season.

In short, this is going to be the best e-tail shopping season in years.

Investors shouldn't settle for simply keeping up with the pack, though. There are plenty of online retail specialists that will likely grow considerably faster than 16%.

Last week, after Forrester peer comScore announced that e-commerce sales spiked 9% during the third quarter, I took a closer look at several companies that managed double-digit percentage gains. 

Now that we have a tangible growth rate target of 16%, let's see what analysts are projecting for the top-line growth during the holiday quarter for those same seven companies with strong e-tail businesses.

  • Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN  ) : 35%
  • Overstock.com (Nasdaq: OSTK  ) : 13%
  • drugstore.com (Nasdaq: DSCM  ) : 10%
  • Blue Nile (Nasdaq: NILE  ) : 6%
  • Vitacost.com (Nasdaq: VITC  ) : 14%
  • PC Mall (Nasdaq: MALL  ) : 9%
  • PC Connection (Nasdaq: PCCC  ) : 18%

Uh-oh!  Whereas all but Blue Nile were on pace to surpass comScore's third-quarter projection, only Amazon and PC Connection are expected to keep up with Forrester's holiday sales e-tail goal.

Will bricks-and-mortar chains be the big winners this season, or is this simply a sobering realization that Amazon is so enormous that it carries everybody else? 

I would bank on the latter before the former. Amazon is that significant, with the Prime annual loyalty club program that will keep shoppers glued to Amazon.com's page during the next several weeks.

Well-played, Amazon. You now own Christmas. Don't ruin it.

With drugstore.com reporting tonight and the others to follow, is it smart to buy into the e-tail stocks ahead of this year's holiday season? Share your thoughts in the comment box below.

Blue Nile is a Motley Fool Rule Breakers pick. Amazon.com is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor selection. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz has been shopping online since the early 1990s, even before many of these chains were around. He does not own shares in any of the stocks in this article. He is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


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Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On November 11, 2010, at 9:48 AM, jwebbzor wrote:

    "Well-played, Amazon. You now own Christmas. Don't ruin it."

    Haha. That is very true.

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