Is True Religion a Sell?

Should you sell True Religion (Nasdaq: TRLG  ) today?

The decision to sell a stock you've researched and followed for months or years is never easy. If you fall in love with your stock holdings, you risk becoming vulnerable to confirmation bias -- listening only to information that supports your theories, and rejecting any contradictions.

In 2004, longtime Fool Bill Mann called confirmation bias one of the most dangerous components of investing. This warning has helped my own personal investing throughout the Great Recession. Now, I want to help you identify potential sell signs on popular stocks within our 4 million-strong Fool.com community.

Today, I'm laser-focused on True Religion, ready to evaluate its price, valuation, margins, and liquidity. Let's get started!

Don't sell on price
Over the past 12 months, True Religion has risen 17% versus an S&P 500 return of 11.3%. Investors in True Religion have every reason to be proud of their returns, but is it time to take some off the top? Not necessarily. Short-term outperformance alone is not a sell sign. The market may be just beginning to realize the true, intrinsic value of True Religion. For historical context, let's compare True Religion's recent price to its 52-week and five-year highs. I've also included a few other businesses in the same or related industries:

Company

Recent Price

52-Week High

5-Year High

True Religion $21.93 $34.17 $34.20
Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF  ) $56.15 $56.49 $85.80
Joe's Jeans (Nasdaq: JOEZ  ) $1.59 $3.60 $3.60
Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL  ) $112.12 $113.41 $113.41

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

As you can see, True Religion is down from its 52-week high. If you bought near the peak, now's the time to think back to why you bought it in the first place. If your reasons still hold true, you shouldn't sell based on this information alone.

Potential sell signs
First up, we'll get a rough idea of True Religion's valuation. I'm comparing True Religion's recent P/E ratio of 13.0 to where it's been over the past five years.

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

True Religion's P/E is lower than its five-year average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued. A low P/E isn't always a good sign, since the market may be lowering its valuation of the company because of less attractive growth prospects. It does indicate that, on a purely historical basis, True Religion looks cheap.

Now, let's look at the gross margins trend, which represents the amount of profit a company makes for each $1 in sales, after deducting all costs directly related to that sale. A deteriorating gross margin over time can indicate that competition has forced the company to lower prices, that it can't control costs, or that its whole industry's facing tough times. Here is True Religion's gross margin over the past five years:

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

True Religion has been able to grow its gross margin, which tends to dictate a company's overall profitability. This is great news; however, True Religion investors need to keep an eye on this over the coming quarters. If margins begin to dip, you'll want to know why.

Next, let's explore what other investors think about True Religion. We love the contrarian view here at Fool.com, but we don't mind cheating off our neighbors every once in a while. For this, we'll examine two metrics: Motley Fool CAPS ratings and short interest. The former tells us how Fool.com's 170,000-strong community of individual analysts rate the stock. The latter shows what proportion of investors are betting that the stock will fall. I'm including other peer companies once again for context.

Company

CAPS Rating (out of 5)

Short Interest (% of float)

True Religion *** 23.0
Abercrombie & Fitch * 14.2
Joe's Jeans **** 7.3
Polo Ralph Lauren ** 6.2

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

The Fool community is in the middle of the road on True Religion. We typically like to see our stocks rated at four or five stars. Anything below that is a less-than-bullish indicator. I highly recommend you visit True Religion's stock pitch page to see the verbatim reasons behind the ratings.

Here, short interest is at a high 23%. This typically indicates that large institutional investors are betting against the stock.

The last metric I like to look at is the current ratio, which lets investors judge a company's short-term liquidity. If True Religion had to convert its current assets to cash in one year, how many times over could the company cover its current liabilities? As of the last filing, True Religion has a current ratio of 8.27. This is a healthy sign. I like to see companies with current ratios equal to or greater than 1.5.

Finally, it's highly beneficial to determine whether True Religion belongs in your portfolio -- and to know how many similar businesses already occupy your stable of investments. If you haven't already, be sure to put your tickers into Fool.com's free portfolio tracker, My Watchlist. You can get started right away by clicking here to add True Religion.

The final recap

True Religion has failed only two of the quick tests that would make it a sell. This is great, but does it mean you should hold your True Religion shares? Not necessarily. Just keep your eye on these trends over the coming quarters.

If you haven't had a chance yet, be sure to read this article detailing how I missed out on over $100,000 in gains through wrong-headed selling.

Jeremy Phillips does not own shares of the companies mentioned.

Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


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Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On December 14, 2010, at 6:52 PM, stockmover wrote:

    Other financial info which make this stock a winner is a PEG ratio 0.48 indicating great growth prospects and zero long-term debt! The short positions don't worry me because as the TRLG price continues to rise, the shorts will have to cover their position and therefore increase buying pressure on TRLG.

    Rich .. LONG TRLG

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