HP Finds Excuses, Not Answers

Why does every earnings leak lead into bad news?

NetApp (Nasdaq: NTAP  ) recently had its earnings report sniffed out an hour ahead of its intended release, and shares immediately tanked because analysts wanted more than they got. Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS  ) did the same dance only weeks before the NetApp fiasco. Just to confirm the rule by providing an exception, Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT  ) saw its earnings leaked almost an hour before intended release earlier this year -- and proceeded to thump estimates with authority.

Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ  ) fell into a similar pattern this week. Originally scheduled to show second-quarter results Wednesday night, HP found an internal memo online that could be seen as hints to what the numbers might be like, so the release was "accelerated" by about 32 hours. No, it's not good news.

The second quarter itself wasn't terrible. With $1.24 of non-GAAP earnings per share on $31.6 billion in sales, the results fell pretty much in line with Wall Street expectations. But that's after adjusting their targets for last quarter's disappointing guidance, and then HP made it worse by lowering its full-year forecast again.

That's why HP shares fell as much as 9.4% in intraday trading yesterday, nearly setting a 22-month low in the process that was only equaled when the Mark Hurd scandal hit the fan last summer. Taking nearly 10% off an $86 billion market cap overnight is no mean feat.

HP explained its dour outlook with fallout from the disasters in Japan, exacerbated by slow sales of consumer PCs and an underperforming enterprise services segment. That leaked memo told HP managers to keep a close eye on costs and new hires, because "another tough quarter" is already under way.

I find the Japanese excuse interesting, because neither Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO  ) nor IBM (NYSE: IBM  ) played the earthquake and tsunami card this quarter. Cisco mentioned a reshuffling of its components inventories to handle Japanese business disruptions and Big Blue gets 11% of its revenue from that nation but saw no reason to complain. Microsoft didn't even mention that event in its earnings call. Did HP suffer from the catastrophe in ways its peers just didn't? Hmm.

Maybe it's just harder to keep bad news under wraps. Perhaps it's just easier to go about your business after finding a shoulder to cry on. Either way, HP shares now trade for 9.3 times trailing earnings and less than seven times next-year forecasts. You almost have to believe that the stock is going to zero if you're not licking your lips over the discounts here -- and HP is both too big and too smart to die.

Fool contributor Anders Bylund holds no position in any of the companies discussed here. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended Walt Disney, Cisco Systems, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool owns shares of International Business Machines and Microsoft. The Fool has created a bull call spread position on Cisco Systems. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended creating a diagonal call position in Microsoft. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. You can check out Anders' holdings and a concise bio if you like, and The Motley Fool is investors writing for investors.


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  • Report this Comment On May 18, 2011, at 4:10 PM, EyeHateFools wrote:

    You know, I am pretty sure IBM and Cisco don't have a huge part of their printer business in Japan, so of course they wouldn't point to Japan as a reason that the next couple of quarters are challenging. HP wasn't pointing to technology sales to Japan as the concern, it's that the internal guts of their printers come from Canon, and is manufactured in Japan. There is some legitimacy for the Japan concern with HP, that don't exist for IBM or Cisco.

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