7 Reasons to Worry About Next Week

Is the economy still on the road to recovery or did it miss a pivotal turn a few intersections back?

Several market bellwethers have come through with better-than-expected results in recent weeks, but it's not all good news. GDP came in below expectations, making some think a double-dip may be back in the works.

There are still plenty of companies posting lower earnings than they did a year ago. Let's go over a few of the names that are expected to go the wrong way on the bottom line next week.

Company

Latest Quarter EPS (Estimated)

Year-Ago Quarter EPS

My Watchlist

American Tower (NYSE: AMT  ) $0.23 $0.25 Add
Trex (Nasdaq: TREX  ) $0.16 $1.07 Add
Office Max (NYSE: OMX  ) $0.00 $0.12 Add
Activision Blizzard (Nasdaq: ATVI  ) $0.05 $0.06 Add
Garmin (Nasdaq: GRMN  ) $0.66 $0.85 Add
Dean Foods (NYSE: DF  ) $0.17 $0.29 Add
Southwest (NYSE: LUV  ) $0.20 $0.29 Add

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Clearing the table
There will likely be more companies posting lower earnings next week, but these are just a few of the names that really jump out at me.

American Tower operates towers used by radio stations and wireless companies to broaden their coverage. You don't expect terrestrial radio to be a growth industry, but doesn't this sound like a growth industry when it comes to cellular companies? When a carrier attacks a rival's coverage map in a marketing campaign, shouldn't that be sweet music for American Tower? Unfortunately, it doesn't seem that way on the bottom line this time around.

Trex already hit the deck two weeks ago, alerting investors that it would woefully miss the market's original estimates. It's a lousy time for the leading maker of wood-alternative decking to pull up lame. Springtime and early summer are when homeowners do outdoor deck projects. Unfortunately, the soft economy and the iffy ownership scenario for leveraged homeowners are a one-two punch when it comes to home improvement projects.

Office Max isn't the darling of office supplies, but the superstore chain is still a decent bellwether for corporate America. What Office Max's projected financials are saying isn't pretty, since we're looking at a sharp drop in profitability on flat sales.

Activision Blizzard is the country's largest video game operator, even though the $20 billion proposed valuation floating around for Zynga would take the crown when it comes to market cap. Is FarmVille really bigger than World of Warcraft? Can Empire & Allies really defeat Call of Duty?

Activision Blizzard isn't perfect. It did have to kiss its once-gigantic Guitar Hero franchise goodbye. There was a time when gaming software seemed like a recession-proof industry, catering to the homebound and entertainment-starved. Now it's battling social gaming and dirt cheap apps for the attention of casual gamers, as diehard gamers shake their heads.

Garmin isn't a surprise to find on this list. Who is buying dedicated GPS gadgetry these days? Smartphones and smarter cars make it easier to get around without turn-by-turn prompts.

Dean Foods used to be a cash cow in the dairy space. Between milk, creamers, and even organic soy-based milks, Dean Foods seems to be an all-weather performer. Unfortunately, growth isn't a word that investors are likely to "udder" when the dairy giant reports on Thursday morning.

Finally, we have Southwest. The low-cost carrier once stood out from money-losing legacy carriers with its resilient performance. Southwest will thankfully still be profitable come Thursday, but apparently it wasn't able to raise fares quickly enough to offset the rise in jet fuel.

Why the long face, short-seller?
These seven companies have seen better days. The market has rewarded many of these stocks with reasonable gains over the past year, but they still haven't earned those upticks.

The good news here is that Wall Street already expects these companies to deliver shrinking bottom lines. In other words, the bad news is already baked into the shares.

The more I think about it, the less worried I become.

The Motley Fool owns shares of Activision Blizzard and Dean Foods. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Southwest Airlines, Activision Blizzard, and American Tower, as well as creating a synthetic long position on Activision Blizzard and an iron condor position on Garmin. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz wonders if his contrarian heart will ever be happy. He does not own shares in any of the companies in this story. He is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early.


Read/Post Comments (3) | Recommend This Article (3)

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  • Report this Comment On July 29, 2011, at 11:59 AM, ceyhun28 wrote:

    Nice article. Rick if you add the increasingly likely downgrade on our AAA credit rating (even if default is averted), coupled with above mentioned earnings decreases, I can see the market moving significantly lower next week.

    If the S&P 500 breaks through the twice tested 1257 resistance level, a free fall from there will become even more likely.

  • Report this Comment On July 29, 2011, at 12:14 PM, DavL wrote:

    I don't agree with your viewpoint that social games and Big Name games are competing for the same money. People who play those social games are a different type of customer compared to the devoted followers of world of warcraft or call of duty.

  • Report this Comment On July 29, 2011, at 3:34 PM, mlee510 wrote:

    I don't think you did your research on Garmin. As someone who is supposed to be an expert, you certainly didn't present anything that's valuable in your article. If no one is buying stand alone GPS units, how does Garmin wind up with 3 out of 20 hottest selling electronics on Amazon as of today. The list consists quite a few products from Apple who exceeded expectation by a large margin from their most recent quarter. How is it possible for Garmin to be on this list if no one is buying. Smartphone GPS is a threat but has been a threat for a while. The Garmin stock price already reflects this. We don't need editors to cook and recook leftovers. Come up with some new points would you? Otherwise you are no better than a typical spammer on most message boards.

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