Rising Star Buy: Powering Ahead

This article is part of our Rising Star Portfolios series.

When I first started buying shares last November of inverter-manufacturer Power-One (Nasdaq: PWER  ) for my Messed-Up Expectation portfolio, a whopping 32% of the float was sold short. This reflected the market's fear that the European Union, and Germany especially, would not be adding a lot of solar power capacity. That, in turn, would cut demand for Power-One's inverters, which change solar panels' and wind farms' DC electricity into the AC that power grids use.

That grim scenario has pretty much played out. In the third quarter of last year, Power-One shipped 867 MW of inverters, bringing in $228 million. These numbers climbed to $263 million and 932 MW in Q4, before plunging to $152 million and 609 MW in the first quarter.

But in the second quarter, Power-One's downward slide reversed, as the company increased shipments to 718 MW for $180 million by expanding its presence and shipments in North America and Asia. It built a new manufacturing facility in Arizona and started manufacturing inverters in China. Power-One expects to supplant any decline in Europe with growth in China, India, and North America.

Both Power-One and SMA Solar -- the global leader in inverter shipments, just ahead of Power-One -- see a huge opportunity in India. The country plans to develop 1 GW of solar power by 2013 and increase that to 20 GW by 2022. China is expected to reach 2 GW of solar power by the end of this year, and by 2015, its solar power could be no more expensive than that generated by coal.

The market seems to have recognized this shift away from Europe in global solar demand. The number of shares of Power-One sold short has dropped by 50% since the end of last year. Several other solar-related companies have either seen their short interest remain fairly steady or drop over the same time period.

Company

Short interest, Dec. 31 2010

Short interest, Aug. 31, 2011

Power-One 38.2 19.3
Advanced Energy Industries (Nasdaq: AEIS  ) 2.2 3.0
First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR  ) 16.4 16.9
JA Solar (Nasdaq: JASO  ) 24.2 12.9
Sunpower (Nasdaq: SPWRA  ) 13.6 7.9
Suntech Power (NYSE: STP  ) 18.8 19.3
Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE  ) 12.6 14.6

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. Short interest is millions of shares sold short as of the given date.

Obviously, a drop in the short interest is not reason enough to buy shares of a company. However, Power-One's move away from Europe as the primary supporter of inverter sales will only become greater as China, India, and even the U.S. increase use of solar energy to supply electricity to their populations. Power-One is well positioned for that road.

The fears associated with European macroeconomic worries are creating quite a headwind for Power-One and holding the share price down, but as I plan to hold shares for several years, I believe this is actually creating an opportunity for us to get shares more cheaply than otherwise. Tomorrow, the MUE port will purchase another allotment of shares of Power-One.

For other investment ideas in the energy sector, get our free special report, "The Only Energy Stock You'll Ever Need."

This article is part of our Rising Star Portfolios series, where we give some of our most promising stock analysts cold, hard cash to manage on the Fool's behalf. We'd like you to track our performance and benefit from these real-money, real-time free stock picks. See all of our Rising Star analysts (and their portfolios).

Fool analyst Jim Mueller owns shares of Power-One. He's an analyst for the Motley Fool Stock Advisor newsletter service.

The Motley Fool owns shares of Power-One. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of First Solar. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool's disclosure policy is never messed up.

 

Read/Post Comments (7) | Recommend This Article (7)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On September 07, 2011, at 1:15 PM, reeshau wrote:

    Jim,

    There is an issue with your table. I can only speak to FSLR, but on Aug 15, FSLR has 16.9M shares sold short, or 35% of the float. Likewise, the short volume last December was 16.4M shares, not 16.4% It seems you have the wrong column, or wrong unit of measure.

  • Report this Comment On September 07, 2011, at 1:18 PM, Brettze wrote:

    It is the Inconventional Truth , stupid, not economy anymore!!

    Look at our air, water, etc.. The Gop still call it "BIG GOVERNMENT" Wait ten years later, you will understand.. The environment will get a lotta worse and GOP will have no government to talk about..

  • Report this Comment On September 07, 2011, at 1:20 PM, Brettze wrote:

    Solar energy is not all about cleaniness ... The air will still be as dirty as before .. We need solar energy to keep our lights on or they will go out.. It is that simple... Big OIl, Gas and Coal are drilling and digging all day and night yet they cannot keep up with our demands around the world so they just keep getting richer and richer... Thank you!! You still refuse to conserve energy even solar energy whatever... So we will keep paying more, more, more if not lavishing so much money on energy... It is not the economy , stupid!

    It is the waste, stupid!

  • Report this Comment On September 07, 2011, at 1:23 PM, Brettze wrote:

    GOP wastes more energy in dollar value that our BIG government can waste money... We are wasting, lavishing too much money on energy any sort.. We burn way too much oil, gas, coal, etc.. than we really need to.. We are doing this because we want to grow our economy faster by wasting as much energy as we can get away with... as if we dont know what else to do with our money but just fill er up!

    There is better places to spend money than making frequent visits to the pumps... Start carpooling now!! Be wise with your money.. Suzy Orman would never , in her wildest dreams , suggest that you start carpooling.. Never!! She is just a gas whore herself..

  • Report this Comment On September 07, 2011, at 1:30 PM, NEMnyWtch wrote:

    Hey now Brettze, I'm the biggest dirt worshipping tree hugger on this site, which is in major conflict with my lifetime's work with investments, and although I appreciate the "Bush" reference, name calling is really not needed to get one's point across. Perhap's you should consider an investment in WM?

  • Report this Comment On September 07, 2011, at 4:35 PM, TMFGebinr wrote:

    reeshau,

    Thank you for your eagle eyes. I misinterpreted what the data from Capital IQ was displaying. It is indeed as you say (instead of %, it's millions of shares) and that will be corrected.

    Thanks for reading,

    Jim

  • Report this Comment On September 07, 2011, at 8:44 PM, plsolar wrote:

    I think is so sad that anyone would short solar or other "world saving" energy stocks. They are in it for greed and should be ushered off this beautiful planet of ours to the middle of some other solar system.

    Get a life!

    plsolar

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