3 Things to Watch When Sirius XM Reports

Everything seems to be holding up well as we head into Sirius XM Radio's (Nasdaq: SIRI  ) third-quarter call next week.

Standard & Poor's raised the satellite radio company's credit rating -- from BB- to BB -- yesterday, offering up a stable outlook for a company that gets stronger financially with every passing quarter.

Sirius XM's stock has also not rallied heading up to Tuesday morning's call. Shares have actually fallen by 15% since its second-quarter report. That's a good thing. It's not as if expectations are heightened through inflated appreciation, something that has stung the stock in the past.

In short, the climate is ripe for a healthy move higher if Sirius XM has even a modestly bullish report to offer next week.

Let's take a look at a few of the things worth watching.

1. The bottom line is the bottom line
Sirius XM hasn't been a top-line growth story for some time. Revenue grew a mere 6% in its previous quarter, and that's just what analysts are targeting this time around.

It's the nature of the beast. Sirius XM has more than 21 million subscribers, and most of them come in the form of drivers of cars with pre-installed Sirius or XM receivers. There are a lot of older cars on the road that don't have access to satellite radio and newer cars with dormant receivers, but the addressable market has never been as large as bulls would like to believe. Infrequent drivers or those who actually prefer local content as they drive around may never come around to premium radio.

It won't always be this way.

There may finally be some streaming opportunities at compelling price points. There are still a few marquee terrestrial radio celebrities that would be magnetic draws to satellite radio. However, for now the real growth will be on the bottom line as Sirius XM continues to cash in on its scalable model to deliver faster earnings and free cash flow growth than its top line is mustering.

2. Make sure the upcoming price hike doesn't turn Sirius XM into the next Netflix
Any company entertaining a price increase -- as Sirius XM will come January -- can't ignore Netflix's (Nasdaq: NFLX  ) summertime gaffe. Even though just half of Netflix's subscribers were subjected to the pricing increase -- and only a subset of those users were on the single DVD unlimited plan that was hit with the highest 60% increase -- the public interpreted the move as insensitive. Netflix did a poor job of communicating that it was the ticket to acquire even more streaming content from skittish studios that were tired of seeing their digital vaults practically given away by Netflix.

Sirius XM's basic monthly rates will climb just 12% to $14.49 in a little more than two months. It's the media giant's first base increase in years, though Sirius XM has tacked on music royalty fees and boosted secondary rates since the merger between Sirius and XM was completed three years ago.

The only reason why this may cause some resentment is because the rate hike isn't technically warranted. Sirius XM is posting record profitability. Programming and content costs have actually fallen 7% through the first half of this year, and the decrease is even larger on a per-subscriber basis. Will listeners question why they have to pay more for something that is costing Sirius XM less to deliver?

This is also a sensitive time. Conversion rates -- the percentage of new car drivers continuing to pay for satellite radio after their free trials run out -- have actually fallen through the first six months of the year. Higher rates in an iffy economy may ding conversion rates and bump up churn.

Sirius XM has been discussing a 2012 rate increase for several quarters, but now that it formalized the extent of the hike last month this will be the first conference call where the company can address any initial feedback or resistance that it may be receiving.

3. There has to be more color to the 2012 guidance initiated last month
Despite the 12% pricing increase, Sirius XM is only projecting revenue to climb by 10% next year. If we go with the annual run rate implied by the $784.2 million in revenue that analysts are targeting for this year's fourth quarter -- to gauge Sirius XM's guidance on a more accurate starting line relative to the January price hike -- we're really only seeing a mere 5% top-line increase.

Save for a few instances in 2008, Sirius XM's guidance has been historically conservative. This should be the case here, unless either less than half of its subscribers will be hit with the price increase or subscriber growth will be stagnant.

We live in competitive times on the dashboard. General Motors (NYSE: GM  ) became the latest automaker -- following in the tread marks of Toyota (NYSE: TM  ) and Ford (NYSE: F  ) -- to offer seamless access to Pandora (NYSE: P  ) and other free streaming sites through their car entertainment systems in select new models. A little more clarity on last month's guidance -- or ideally some upward adjustments -- would go a long way to easing concerns about challenging subscriber growth next year.  

It's your turn, Mel Karmazin.

If you want to see how Sirius XM stands up to the stream teams add Sirius XM Radio to My Watchlist.

The Motley Fool owns shares of Ford Motor. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Netflix, General Motors, and Ford Motor. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz calls them as he sees them. He does not own shares in any of the stocks in this story, except for Netflix and Ford. Rick is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early.


Read/Post Comments (5) | Recommend This Article (1)

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Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On October 27, 2011, at 3:20 PM, waterinfo wrote:

    It is time to weigh in again about the fact that "free streaming music services" are not a competitive threat to SiriusXM. In fact, they may actually boost subscriptons to the SIRI services as people get their bills from their smart phone service providers.

    I just came from my favorite store (Costco) with fresh brochures from Verizon and AT&T. Their pricing is surprisingly similar, but the Verizon pamphlet does a much better job of explaining things.

    The key point is that for smartphone users, in addition to the monthly voice access/minutes charges (at least $39.95) there is a monthly data package required (at least $30). The $30 package includes 2 GB of data accesss. The pamphlet does a good job showing how much data various applications consume, and lists Audio Streaming (online radio and music) as consuming 60 MB/hour. Since there are 1000 MB in a GB, the phone will play music for 16.666 hours per Gigabite. The basic $30 package, if you do nothing else, will give you 33.33 hours of music, roughly one hour per day. Thus, for only double the cost of a Sirius or XM subscription (even with their pending price increase included), you can listen to music on your smartphone for an hour per day. Sounds like a dumbphone to me!

    My point above, is that if people get enamored with their "smart dashboards" in new cars, and stream music on their phones for a while each day, I think that when they get their first $100 invoice, they will realize what a bargain Sirius and XM are at $15/month. That will actually stimulate subscriptions.

  • Report this Comment On October 27, 2011, at 4:15 PM, TMFBreakerRick wrote:

    Waterinfo, that is true, but keep in mind that it only applies to NEW AT&T and Verizon customers. Any AT&T customer through June of last year is grandfathered into unlimited data -- even when they upgrade to new phones. Verizon made a similar move a few months later. Sprit is standing out as the one offering unlimited data to new customers. Clearly the end of unlimited data for some people WILL play a role, but there's a reason why Pandora's growing at more than 10x the rate of Sirius these days. Streaming is real.

  • Report this Comment On October 27, 2011, at 7:59 PM, Fredlee009 wrote:

    Error in your article. 1st base price increase in their history, but sure, in years is true too. In years means nothing. Your fomenting theres been others. Im being nice, I could just call you a liar.

  • Report this Comment On October 27, 2011, at 8:02 PM, Fredlee009 wrote:

    A little more clarity on last month's guidance --

    Tell ME how you get clearer than this.

    3.3 Billion in revenue. Is this clearer?

    3,300,000,000 BILLION DOLLARS IN REVENUE. Is that better?

    700 MILLION DOLLARS (US AMERICAN DOLLARS) FOR FREE CASH FLOW. Is that clearer now?

    815 million in EBITDA. Thats in DOLLARS. Is that clearer?

    LOL

    How do u get clearer than exact dollar number?

    You idiot. Wow, ur an idiot.

  • Report this Comment On October 30, 2011, at 9:18 AM, TMFBreakerRick wrote:

    Freedlee, we meet again.

    XM went from $10 to $13 a couple of years before the merger.

    And by "clarity" or "ideally some upward adjustments" it's about clarifying why revenue growth will be well short of the rate hike itself. That is fully explained in the paragraphs leading up to that part.

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