Who Will Win the 4th Quarter in Macau?

• Report this Comment On January 24, 2012, at 3:54 PM, gallerypup wrote:

  The biggest winners are the Junkets. These pure gambling plays do not carry the burdensome overhead and get payed to play - based on volume not winnings - the Best in Class amongst them is AERL Asia Entertainment Resources - and the biggest beneficiary of the growth in Macau.

• Report this Comment On January 24, 2012, at 4:12 PM, cp757 wrote:

  Very cute Travis.This is the most deceptive graph I have ever seen used in an article .To those that do not see through his bias Travis is trying to show revenue growth instead of Total revenue . No analyst would show this kind of representation without an agenda. I am especially disappointed in the author in that he knows what the truth is and decided to mislead the Fool investors. This is the type of journalism that readers should not stand for . Travis you should repost this article with total revenue as well . Very disappointing as well as deceptive. Any reader in the future should be suspicious of Travis .His ethics have been compromised . I hope they taught him that in engineering school.If you just wanted to get more people to read the artical you could have taken a different path.The fool is about telling investors about future growth in a stock price and you know what the future growth is with LVS and you still have done a hack job like this .

• Report this Comment On January 24, 2012, at 5:21 PM, berg80 wrote:

  Travis has a history of misleading and under researched articles on a subject he apparently feels he is an expert on, gaming in Macau. But then journalistic standards at MF are not a priority. Had he taken the time to do some DD he would have learned that the services of top tier junkets are in such demand that they are being offered more generous terms at casinos like the Four Seasons. A continuation of LVS' efforts to boost their VIP business. But that would have meant actually being concerned about factual accuracy. Not a strong point of this author.

• Report this Comment On January 24, 2012, at 8:51 PM, kpwalsh wrote:

  This article is garbage from an unemployed recent MBA graduate in his mid 20s who knows nothing about investing. Has he ever traded, held or shorted shares of any companies that he has written about. Probably not. His analysis is beyond amateurish.

• Report this Comment On January 24, 2012, at 10:22 PM, cp757 wrote:

  Travis three things you might want to research for your next artical would be

  Singapore's pair of casinos likely registered more gambling revenue than the 39 casinos along the legendary Las Vegas Strip.

  http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_A...

  Las Vegas Is On a Comeback Trail

  http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/01/12/l...

  Pennsylvania passes Atlantic City as the nation's No. 2 gaming market

  http://www.lvrj.com/blogs/stutz/Pennsylv...

• Report this Comment On January 25, 2012, at 10:21 AM, stjmacau wrote:

  Wow, this guy is ignorant. I looked at some of his older articles, and it is pure rubbish. He knows less about Macau than he knows about investing...

  Believe it or not, his prior article on junkets was even more of a joke. MF should be ashamed for letting this "fool" publish at all on the topic. His lack of understanding of the Macau market is staggering.

  Maybe he should focus on just quoting others who actually know what they are talking.

• Report this Comment On January 25, 2012, at 12:35 PM, spokanimal wrote:

  Something for you to consider, Travis.

  You have correctly sized up revenue growth among some of the macau concessionaires and it was a well-illustrated "historical" perspective.

  True to form, backward looking investors have played their usual "momentum" game and stocks like Wynn have out-performed LVS over the balance of 2011.

  Read what I said in the last 2 paragraphs again, Travis... that is the essence of "contrarian speak"... which, since it is generally contrarian to the "herd", is seldom the perspective most investors have toward stocks.

  Put more simply, what Sand's market share slide from 24% some 20 months ago to 14% last September means is that, even though the company has outstanding properties, it has fallen on hard times in Macau. The reason, of course, is the Jacobs debacle and Sand's focus on the bottom line (Sands still leads all macau concessionaires in total EBITDA).

  As a contrarian, what your graph means to me is "over-the-shoulder-thinking". What is important is that after losing much, Sands is now positioned with "much to gain". Wynn is at the top of their game... fully functional with nothing in the development pipeline... and it's stock reflects it. Wynn has nowhere to go but dead even or down from here.

  Conversely, Sands is down but is just now completing a $133 Million junket initiative with outstanding, albiet anecdotal, results and is poised to launch 3, mega resorts collectively known as Cotai Central. Sand's stock has been reflecting your graph, Travis, but the company's prospects for rising off of rock bottom look compelling indeed.

  Contrarian investing, as practiced by people like Rothschild, Templeton, Buffett, etc. is all about "anticipation", Travis, not reacting to history. History is only valuable in determining just how contrary a stock's price and past performance IS relative to it's prospects. Once the solid metrics come in, the stock has doubled and it's too late to get in without ending up being yet another "momentum lemming".

  Talk about the FUTURE, Travis... enough with reasoning based on the old news of the past. Don't just report common, historical knowledge...help your readers rise ABOVE the herd... help them visualize the future.

  Spokanimal

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