Can Sirius XM Stay Above $2 This Time?

The fireworks began early for Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI  ) .

The satellite-radio giant broke above $2 early in Tuesday's abridged trading session, marking the first time Sirius XM has landed north of $1.99 since May 23. The stock's eventual close of $2.04 is the highest investors have seen since May 14.

Something we haven't seen in weeks isn't necessarily news. However, investors have every right to question whether Sirius XM can hold these gains. The stock has closed above $2 during three different stretches over the past 14 months. The periods lasted as brief as a few trading days and as long as a handful of weeks. All three streaks ended the same, with the stock falling back below the $2 mark.

It could be different this time.

For starters, there's the interesting backdrop of Liberty Media's (Nasdaq: LMCA  ) quest for de facto control of the company. It now has an effective 46.2% stake in the company, and if regulators don't grant it control of the company, it's not far away from owning an actual majority stake in Sirius XM.

Liberty Media was victorious in a nearly decade-long dispute with Vivendi, resulting in a $950 million award if Vivendi's appeal is shot down. In other words, Liberty Media will have the money.

However, there are plenty of interesting things that could happen apart from the Liberty Media soap opera in the coming weeks. Sirius XM reports in a few weeks, and there's always the possibility that it can pre-announce good news if it wants to revise its guidance higher or spill the beans on how many subscribers it has tacked on over the past three months.

There's also the recently announced Google TV app. It's easy to laugh off Google's (Nasdaq: GOOG  ) fledgling smart-television platform, but the company is taking plenty of steps this time to make sure its update later this year is cheaper and better. The release later this month of the Nexus 7 tablet and Nexus Q media-sharing orb should also help raise Google's role in consumer electronics, showing that Sirius XM decided to hop on the Google TV platform at a convenient time.

Staying above $2 won't be easy, but the number of potential bullish catalysts outweigh the bearish ones in the near future.

Running of the bulls
I remain bullish on Sirius XM's future. It should come as no surprise that I'm promoting the CAPScall initiative for accountability by reiterating my bullish call on Sirius XM for Motley Fool CAPS.

XM Satellite Radio was a Rule Breakers recommendation before the Sirius XM merger. It's now gone from the scorecard, but if you want to discover the newsletter service's next Rule-Breaking multibagger, a free report reveals all.

The Fool owns shares of Google. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Google. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz calls them as he sees them. He owns shares of Liberty Media and is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


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  • Report this Comment On July 05, 2012, at 9:43 AM, doubting wrote:

    Rick,

    You are asking a legitimate question if siri can stay beyond $2. Unfortunately, it fell under $2 too many times when we thought the procees of going up was irreversible.

    I believe that this month may provide us a final POSITIVE answer. Sirius XM as a corporation is gaining critical mass of positive events plus the situation with liberty is drawing to conclusion.

    Where we can feel very strong is that, arguably, the fundamentals of the company are improving with every passing day. This process is for certain irreversable, and the stock will sooner or later catch up.

  • Report this Comment On July 05, 2012, at 12:45 PM, Brent2223 wrote:

    I wouldn't discount Google TV at all. I've had Apple TV since the 2nd gen came out, and this has replaced my cable movie channels (use Netflix) and I have no need for a cd or dvd player anymore (as iTunes is now completely integrated with my entertainment system). As soon as there is a bit more selection of standard network tv offerings (alot of the networks have apps, but they're not great yet) I'll be getting rid of cable all together.

    As my iPhone simplified my gadget collection (it replaced mp3 player, camera, video camera, gps, portable gaming system etc.), Apple TV, and presumable Google TV, will eventually simplify my entertainment system (one TV, one box, one controller, can you imagine?)

    The convenience of getting Netflix through Apple TV is why I signed up, so don't discount the value of having a SIRI app pop up in Google TV.

    Of course the bear argument for SIRI will be that the availability of 'free' internet radio on Apple/Google TV will eat away at SIRI subscribers - but there are actually some people out there still willing to pay for quality services. People were still using rabbit ears to get free TV up until recently, that didn't stop the cable industry from making some money. Bottled water is another common example. The be all and end all of a successful business is not simply offering something cheaper than your competition.

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