Investors took the "might not" meet subscriber goals warning to mean that Netflix "certainly will not" get anywhere close. And at the end of last week, an independent report from network security vendor Procera Networks showed that Netflix viewing dropped as much as 25% on the first Sunday of the Games. Hence, the shares fell even further.
What's really going on?
Olympic streams -- powered by Comcast
It seems like Hastings jumped the gun. The company now says that streaming traffic has "dipped very occasionally" during the Olympics. The company endorses the traffic analysis gurus of Sandvine, who found that Netflix streams actually grew during that weekend.
Sandvine spokesman Dan Deeth certainly sees no need for Netflix investors to worry: "While it is too early to tell what impact the full two-week event will have on [Netflix's] traffic levels (the first weekend has few marquee events), we would not be surprised to see the Olympics have little to no impact on Netflix and for their traffic to continue to slowly grow organically, even if it might not be growing as fast as other real-time entertainment applications."
As for the troubling Procera report, the company itself has explained that the 25% drop happened in a very limited market sample. "Streaming levels are back to normal," according to Procera.
Why London isn't crushing Netflix
Netflix and live sports go together like salmon and chocolate syrup. Given the on-demand nature of digital video streams, you rarely lose out on a marathon viewing of Breaking Bad just because the Usain Bolt race is coming up. Just hit pause on Netflix and come back later.
Likewise, even live sports events aren't necessarily "live" anymore. Digital video recorders in the TiVo
And don't even get me started on NBC's decision to tape-delay many crucial events, removing the element of surprise as results often become available online hours before hitting the TV screen. NBC will declare the Olympics as a great success, but it's a far cry from perfection.
The Foolish takeaway
The technological entertainment landscape has certainly changed since the Vancouver Winter Olympics, which "had a small negative effect" as far as management could tell. Maybe the prevalence of DVRs dampened the Olympic impact on Netflix and other casual entertainment providers. If so, Hastings should send a thank-you card to TiVo when he hits that magic 7 million new subscribers mark.
Hastings erred on the side of caution this time -- like so many times before. The stock will jump back when it becomes obvious that the Olympics didn't kill Netflix.
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