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Why Is Nobody Taking On Netflix?

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Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX  ) hitting a million subscribers in the U.K. and Ireland earlier this week is impressive.

This is the first market where the popular video service has run into real competition. It debuted its streaming platform last year in a market where BSkyB and Amazon.com's (Nasdaq: AMZN  ) LOVEFiLM are entrenched players that have already locked up deals for exclusive content rights.

Now that crowded market is about to get even tighter.

Sainsbury just announced that it was teaming up with Rovi (Nasdaq: ROVI  ) to roll out a digital video service.

For those not familiar with Sainsbury, it's a leading grocery store chain across the pond. Yes, Netflix is now competing with a supermarket in the U.K.!

To be fair, Sainsbury isn't just a "clean-up in aisle four" kind of operator. The foodstuffs retailer has already set up digital storefronts for MP3s and e-books.

However, it's simply remarkable that a grocery store operator, a satellite television juggernaut, and the world's leading online retailer are giving Netflix a run for its money overseas when there's no one really putting up much of a fight closer to home.

Yes, Amazon is giving it the old college try. Leaning on its millions of Amazon Prime shoppers who pay $79 a year for subsidized shipping to introduce streaming of a select catalog at no additional cost is a brilliant strategy. Unfortunately, a limited library and lack of the infrastructure that Netflix has established over the years that makes the process seamless across gaming consoles, set-top boxes, and optical disc players has held Amazon back.

In short, Netflix continues to grow since Amazon's streaming smorgasbord rolled out early last year. There were nearly 24 million domestic streaming subscribers on Netflix's rolls at the end of June.

Redbox parent Coinstar (Nasdaq: CSTR  ) is teaming up with wireless carrier giant Verizon Wireless for a service that should roll out later this year, but Redbox has also been playing up its non-existent digital strategy for two years. Skeptics have a right to believe it only after they see it.

Cable and satellite TV providers have been rolling out streaming services, but they have limited participation to their own customers. Even Blockbuster -- in its head-scratching wisdom -- offers a premium streaming buffet that is only available to the thinning subscriber base of its parent DISH Network's (Nasdaq: DISH  ) namesake satellite service.

Add it all up, and you see a streaming service in Netflix that is now larger than any individual cable or satellite platform in the country.

It wasn't always this way. Likely competitors simply let Netflix run away with the market, and now they're paying the price.

Come on, stateside Netflix alternatives. Even a British grocer is laughing at you.

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The Motley Fool owns shares of Netflix and Amazon.com. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Coinstar, Amazon.com, and Netflix. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz has been a Netflix subscriber and shareholder since 2002. He does not own shares in any of the other stocks in this story. Rick is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early.


Read/Post Comments (8) | Recommend This Article (8)

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  • Report this Comment On August 23, 2012, at 2:14 PM, rhealth wrote:

    If Amazon can't do it who will ? Honestly. $79 a year and free 2 day shipping is a GREAT deal, but I won't do it, correction, I did it on the free trial and got frustrated with the interface within one week.

    I certainly wouldn't want to be some British Piggly Wiggly going up against Netflix, but good on them for having the stones to try.

  • Report this Comment On August 23, 2012, at 4:36 PM, mwilkerson11 wrote:

    I guess its time to short Nettflix

  • Report this Comment On August 23, 2012, at 5:47 PM, mattdavidian wrote:

    NetFlix has a couple of moats that often go unrecognized. First, its huge installed base of devices that get content to consumers TVs. A streaming service that operates in web browsers is great for getting content to computers and mobile devices, but most people are also going to want to watch movies and shows on their big screen too.

    Getting your playback software on game consoles is probably the quickest way to reach a large number of screens, but that isn't going to cover everyone. You need to get the software to play streaming content into TVs, BluRay players and streaming media devices (Roku, Western Digital, etc.). A $99 device is relatively easy to justify vs. buying a game console (and in the case of the Xbox an Xbox Live subscription too).

    This is why I am skeptical about the argument that content owners will just set up their own streaming services and bypass NetFlix entirely. Even if they get over the hurdle of getting their software into all of the devices, are viewers really going to want to navigate potentially dozens of different streaming apps on their TVs to find the content they are after? Are device manufacturers really going to want to support dozens of different software systems for getting streaming content, many of which will have no/few subscribers and thus offer little in the way of marketable features?

    This leads into the second point: aggregation. No one else has aggregated as much content as NetFlix, in fact the recent Redbox comments indicate they are not even going to try to aggregate as much content as NetFlix. The barriers to entry are huge; to attact subscribers, you much have content, to get content, you have to have a lot of money to license it. So either you need to put a lot of capital at risk to get started, or use an established income stream from your subscribers (which you don't have yet! NetFlix got around this by using the income stream from the DVD subscribers they already had). Unless licensing deals are arranged that start out with small costs and scale up as subscribers are added, can anyone really tackle NetFlix with two chicken and egg problems (capital/subscribers to license content, and developing the distribution network)?

    Amazon is best positioned to take on NetFlix, but I've also been disappointed with their interface and overall service on both my TV and my computer. Browsing titles in Amazon is painful; titles are listed multiple times in the same category, different seasons of the same show are listed separately, some titles are lacking pictures (on the TV, without any descriptive text!), titles are listed in the wrong genres (e.g. comedies in sci-fi), some show descriptions appear to have been written by someone with limited English skills (or drunk), aside from basic UI usability issues that NetFlix has figured out years ago.

    Given that, we've still spent a lot of money on Amazon's Instant Video, which is the one advantage they have over NetFlix.

    Amazon seems to be right behind NetFlix in terms of device support. If they could expand their catalog and work out the UI issues they could give NetFlix a run for their money. On the other hand, if NetFlix surprises people with new services--starts offering pay per view rentals, more recent TV shows seasons for sale like Amazon, or recently broadcast shows like Hulu, or even a premium tier package that would compete with pay cable channels to license movies sooner (which is the strategy Redbox indicates they are going to take) then NetFlix could be hard to beat in the long run; additional services will increase revenue while making more of the content people want available from a single service.

  • Report this Comment On August 23, 2012, at 5:59 PM, rhealth wrote:

    I believe that time has passed my friend. Best Buy on the other hand...

  • Report this Comment On August 23, 2012, at 6:01 PM, rhealth wrote:

    To short netflix that is.

  • Report this Comment On August 23, 2012, at 6:33 PM, hanks88 wrote:

    Gang,Iam confused, "time to short Netflix" Help?? ,Amazon browsing is very painful. Try the "Search"....... I screw it up every time ! But the free shipping is sweeet.

  • Report this Comment On August 23, 2012, at 8:32 PM, RushingFool wrote:

    Tried Amazon's streaming via Prime, then cancelled. There no way to list only the pre-paid Prime content, instead it is scattered among premium content that requires additional payment. Also, there is no way to get Amazon's streaming without Prime so as to avoid Prime's cut-rate, troubled A1 delivery service. By choosing to not implement the easy solutions, Amazon reveals it is paying more attention to its current bottom line than to what the customers want. Rarely is that a good long-term business strategy.

  • Report this Comment On August 23, 2012, at 11:07 PM, PlayDay wrote:

    Mattdavidian's post pretty sums up the situation in a perfectly rounded sensible way. Everything that he said is why I believe Netflix has a chance to rule, and a chance to fail. If Netflix can add more value to content owner AND subscribers, they have an awesome business case. I want to pay more and watch more. $1 online rentals? $10 buy and add to personal Netflix catalog? Premium service with a decent number of movies rotating every month or so? The key for them is using they $2 billions of buy power effectively and provide good opportunity for content owners to market their content and raise sales. Nobody wants to buy from amazon, or itunes, or even a content-owner system and have dvds, blu rays, some things in itunes, some ultraviolet, and some amazon system that later on may only work on Amazon-mandated device control agenda.

    I will only buy online content from netflix because it works great, works everywhere, is platform independant, is (becoming) global, isn't tied to a platform, doesn't have any lock-in, and complements my library with a lot of other programing I not ready to own.

    Imagine being able to buy a moview (ie. available forever after you watched it regardless of it being in the library in the future). I'd have bought 10 or 12 if there a special price, knowing I still pay a basic fee from month to month to sweeten the deal).

    My fear about netflix is twofold: do they have the right vision for the future? I can't tell from what they've say. Can they negotiate this enhancements and demonstrate to content owners why it's their best option? I believe it's the best option for content owners. But can they be convincing and offer a framework to be trusted? Can content owners see that their real competition are the ones that want to create captive audiences through switching costs? Eg. Amazon kindle's dominate ebooks. Life is happy now. When their market dominance (apple and barnes & nomble are the only contenders) becomes undisputable with impossible barriers to entry: they will realize how abusive the midle man can be.

    One of the reasons Hastings needs to get rid of by mail, is because that model has no upsell, no cross sell, makes no difference from good amazing title ba class B movie. They want to create the right experience and model to please content owners and subscribers/buyers. That's what I think the play is, but none of this can be stated as it's strategy.

    But what if Netflix doesn't know what's next? Ir if in the short term investors don't get it? This is happening today. Buy or sell, we can predict tomorrows operaning for Netlix. And they can't share they true strategy. Which is why I expect hedge funds to be the support, IF they manage to explain (or they assume by themselves) the hidden business case to them.

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