How Many iPad Minis Will Apple Sell This Week?

Yesterday, I took a look at how a lack of "mania" around the iPad Mini's launch was a big factor in Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL  ) 3.3% sell-off on Friday. It's not that there weren't lines forming at Apple stores; it's that the lines were smaller than past launches, such as when the third-generation iPad hit store shelves in March. 

Expectations for the tablet's first week of sales are all over the map. KGI research's Ming-Chi Kuo, who's been relatively accurate with recent looks into Apple's supply chain, reports that the company will ship 850,000 iPad Minis in the tablet's first week on the market. That number is largely due to shortages, as he estimates 950,000 units were created before launch. Across the quarter, Kuo estimates 8.3 million in sales. That's a total that's still well beyond his estimate of 4.5 million Kindle Fire HDs from Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN  ) and 1.9 million Nexus 7 tablets from Google  (Nasdaq: GOOG  ) .

It's important to note that the number could be disappointing. Estimates for opening weekend sales go all the way to 3 million, which is a number anchored from Apple's prior iPad launch. More "reasonable" estimates sit in the million-unit range. Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster, whose analysis on Apple is normally interesting, is pegged at 1.5 million sales. 

In the end, while investors will probably see a strong reaction to whatever opening-week sales Apple either announces or analysts estimate, the big picture continues to be supply constraints holding demand back. The more interesting result will be sales across the quarter. Yesterday I noted how early reviews of the iPad focus on how amazing its 11-ounce weight is. That combined with price point could mean the iPad Mini is most popular in segments such as teens and pre-teens, where the iPod Touch has been popular. That could shift more sales to December, as the tablet would be a popular option come Christmastime. 

My personal calls into local stores showed the tablet sold out early yesterday. However, I'd also like to hear from our readers. Are you buying an iPad Mini? If not, why not? If you are planning on buying one, have your run into shortages? Make sure to leave a comment in the box below. 

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Eric Bleeker has no positions in the stocks mentioned above. The Motley Fool owns shares of Apple, Amazon.com, and Google. Motley Fool newsletter services recommend Apple, Amazon.com, and Google. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Read/Post Comments (7) | Recommend This Article (8)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On November 03, 2012, at 7:27 PM, Shelly2884 wrote:

    The number this weekend is meaningless. The IPAD Mini will be the Holiday gift of choice. Many families are not going to run out this weekend for the purchase.

    As an aside I went to see the Mini - GREAT Product especially for women and kids. My guess is that was why the white unit sold out so fast.

  • Report this Comment On November 03, 2012, at 7:53 PM, Bolarmd wrote:

    Its like every body want Apple not to be successful and they all praise for AMZN, GOOG, MSFT. Why is Apple getting a step child treatment. Sorry analyst whatever it is APPLE is best innovation company.

  • Report this Comment On November 03, 2012, at 8:17 PM, Mathman6577 wrote:

    Did you or anyone else actually do an analysis and determine that the people and institutions selling the stock on Friday did so because the iPad mini lines were supposedly shorter or did they sell because of the continuing negative bias in reporting over the last few weeks? I read one piece yesterday from Marketwatch that was complete junk on this issue.

    I think this type of article really needs to be labelled as "opinion" and not a news story.

    I don't see this type of article involving Amazon to a great extent, which for some reason is a much more beloved company by the financial media and blogosphere (even when it reported it lost money last quarter). My analysis indicates that for every story about Amazon there are 6 stories about Apple and most of them are negative. Even when Apple was in blow-out mode earlier this year most of the stories were negative.

  • Report this Comment On November 03, 2012, at 9:03 PM, Silentcal wrote:

    I am buying my Granddaughter a Ipad mini for Christmas. I will be at the Apple store in December.

  • Report this Comment On November 03, 2012, at 9:06 PM, BigBevo wrote:

    Yes, I pre-ordered a mini and will wait for the LTE model to be delivered as I am very mobile and not always by wifi. As an Apple user since my first mac in 1985, I see the mini as a serious tool in my pocket everywhere I go. I have two iPads and love them dearly, but the size can be cumbersome while quickly wanting to take notes or show someone a picture etc...you are also dead on with the teen and pre-teen market. Both of my kids. Once this hits the house...I doubt I will see it much at night as it will be in one of their rooms. And yes again on Christmas. Once people see this in action, and I have not yet in real life but from what I know about Apple....people will drool when they see the latest technology with the most apps bundled into one hand where video and anything can be viewed in stunning form.

    Tell me you won't be envious when you see someone pull one out and start playing with it and you are 14-16 years old and you will be lying.

    Long AAPL. Have been for a LOOONG time :)

  • Report this Comment On November 03, 2012, at 10:43 PM, Jstacey78 wrote:

    I'm trying to buy a mini here in the Las Vegas area. It is sold out everywhere. The three Apple stores sell out by 8:00 AM. I tried Bestbuy and Sam's Club, again both sold out. Its easier to get an iphone 5 than a mini - and its the wifi only model.

  • Report this Comment On November 04, 2012, at 4:52 AM, amy320 wrote:

    I am 75 year old Australian, who has Phone 5

    and had Original iPad. I ordered mini iPad in advance and it came Friday. It is many times better than I expected, for me it is so light,so easy to use etc. My wife is soon to change her original iPad for the latest model as she use it just for photos and new higher resolution screen will be good.

    My son in California has two girls age 10 and 8, both with iPod touches. They are getting iPad minis for Xmas.

    The mini iPad will be an outstanding success

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