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Dangers of Shorting Stocks on Display This Year

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"The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
-- John Maynard Keynes 

On the surface, shorting stocks isn't a tough concept to understand. You're simply betting the stock will go down instead of up. All you have to do is look for companies that are performing poorly, and you've got a guaranteed winner, right?

The challenge of shorting stocks is that all sorts of things can get in the way of short-sellers, many of which don't make a lot of sense. The irrational market is much as Keynes identified, and this year irrationality appears to be extraordinarily high in the market.

When terrible stocks go up
The few short trades I've made have been in companies that I think are really terrible fundamentally. This approach reduces the risk of being on the wrong side of a growth stock the market never seems to value logically, but even betting against bad companies has its risks.

Take Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR  ) as a prime example in 2013. The company has lost $1.4 billion in the past year, revenue is declining, and it's drowning in debt, yet the stock is up 215% this year. In this case, investors have been suckered in by the promise of a spinoff including the company's online gaming operations, which themselves don't have any real revenue yet. I don't think the sum of the parts make any sense, but the market says differently.

CZR Total Return Price Chart

CZR Total Return Price data by YCharts

Nokia (NYSE: NOK  ) is a similar story. The company lost $5 billion last year and has no real momentum against smartphone giants Apple and Google. But a sudden offer by Microsoft to buy its handset unit boosted the stock, killing short-sellers in the process. Is Nokia suddenly a good company? No, but that doesn't mean the stock can't go up.

Even betting against bad companies who perform terribly financially can result in massive losses for short-sellers.

Leave logic at the door
The market can be even more maddening for those trying to short stocks they think are wildly overvalued. Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA  ) is worth just under a third of what Ford is worth, or $1 million per car it produces each year, yet the market doesn't bat an eye at what the stock is trading for. Plus, using GAAP, the company hasn't turned a profit yet. Trying to envision how Tesla can live up to its current valuation will leave even the best investing minds scratching their heads.

Stern School of Business professor Aswath Damondaran, a well-respected mind on valuation and finance, Tweeted last week that even if "Tesla grows to have Audi-like revenues ($67 b) & Porsche-like margins (12.5%), I can't get past $70/sh." Take a look at his full argument here and see just how fast Tesla would have to grow to live up to expectations.

Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX  ) and (NASDAQ: AMZN  ) are two popular shorts based on the insane valuations both companies have garnered. Neither seems to be able to make a consistent profit, and in the case of Amazon there doesn't seem to be any real desire by management to make a profit long term.

NFLX Net Income TTM Chart

NFLX Net Income TTM data by YCharts

Yet both stocks continue to rise despite little earnings power. Netflix has at least made a $47 million profit in the past year, earning a 369 P/E ratio, while Amazon is losing money and still has a $134 billion market cap.

Shorting stocks based on valuation can be even more dangerous than shorting bad companies. You never know how long the market is going to give stocks that look overvalued a pass, and it's possible they'll just become more overvalued in the future, even if the value doesn't make any logical sense.

Shorting is a dangerous game
This year is showing exactly why shorting stocks is so dangerous. You have unlimited downside, and when the market becomes irrationally exuberant about an investment you can be left in the dust, even if the company is losing money or has terrible future prospects.

Stick to investments that won't make you broke
While shorting stocks can leave you broke, dividend stocks can make you rich. It's as simple as that. While they don't garner the notability of high-flying growth stocks, they're also less likely to crash and burn. And over the long term, the compounding effect of the quarterly payouts, as well as their growth, adds up faster than most investors imagine. With this in mind, our analysts sat down to identify the absolute best of the best when it comes to rock-solid dividend stocks, drawing up a list in this free report of nine that fit the bill. To discover the identities of these companies before the rest of the market catches on, you can download this valuable free report by simply clicking here now.

Read/Post Comments (5) | Recommend This Article (3)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On September 10, 2013, at 7:34 PM, omarsiddiqi wrote:

    I think your analysis on the shorts that you make is weak specially Nokia. Your conclusion that Nokia is a bad company shows your lack of depthin understanding. I would advise you to look beyond the fundamentals. You should ask me why was I long Nokia all this time and I'll tell you because I see what you can't.

  • Report this Comment On September 10, 2013, at 8:09 PM, spawn44 wrote:

    Your story reminds me of gamblers playing the don't pass line in craps and some old lady comes in and makes 25 passes in a row. You never know.

  • Report this Comment On September 10, 2013, at 8:45 PM, lee654 wrote:

    LOL, Nokia is a great co. & will be #1 again ! Long & will buy more! LS

  • Report this Comment On September 10, 2013, at 10:14 PM, pehong wrote:

    I seriously beg to differ with you regarding NOK. Yes I do think suddenly it is a very good company after the deal, and apparently many other investors out there do too. The handset business they offloaded was a money-losing division with lots of uncertainty and razor-thin margins (now MSFT's problem). NOK received a big pile of cold cash for this unprofitable division and the strongest parts of the company still remain: namely 1) Nokia Solutions & Networks (NSN) - their highly profitable mobile infrastructure equipment & services provider, a leader in 4G-LTE; 2) HERE mapping & location services (in 4 out of 5 automotive navigation systems on the road today and 3) Advanced Technologies division which holds NOK's industry-leading patent portfolio bringing in ~$650M per annum in pure profits. So, your ignorance of what remains of NOK post-deal is glaringly obvious. Its a leaner, stronger and much more viable company now. Moody's & S&P have either upgraded or positively changed the outlook and nothing is preventing the stock to hit fresh 52-week highs as witnessed today. I and omarsiddiqi see what you can't - as do the ratings agencies, several brokerage houses and many others who are clearly excited about the prospects of the new & improved NOK.

  • Report this Comment On September 11, 2013, at 8:36 PM, dennyinusa wrote:

    Short selling should be ilegal.

    It is nothing but gambling, it is not investing.

    If you do not like company.

    Do not buy the stock or sell it if you own it.

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