3 Predictions for the New Week

I went out on a limb last week, and now it's time to see how that decision played out.

  • I predicted that Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT  ) would close lower on the week. The software giant has had a rough time lately, and it seemed as if would prove its out-of-touch ways at Monday's Surface 2 unveiling. I was wrong. It was a generally resilient week for tech, and Microsoft closed 1.5% higher on the week. I was wrong.
  • I predicted that the tech-heavy Nasdaq would outperform the Dow Jones Industrial Average. (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) . This has been a tricky call lately, so how did it play out this time? Well, this was a mixed week for stocks. The Nasdaq moved 0.2% higher, beating the Dow and its 1.2% slide. I was right.
  • My final call was for Lennar (NYSE: LEN  ) to beat Wall Street's income estimates in its latest quarter. The leading homebuilder has been making the most of the housing boom to sell new digs at higher price points. It had come out ahead on the bottom line in each of the past few quarters, and I was banking on a repeat performance. Lennar's profit of $0.54 a share was well above the $0.45 analysts were targeting. I was right.

Two out of three? I can do better than that.

Let me once again whip out my trusty, dusty, and occasionally accurate crystal ball to make three calls that may play out over the next few trading days.

1. Walgreen will close higher on the week
This should be a good week for Walgreen (NYSE: WAG  ) . The drugstore giant reports quarterly results on Tuesday. Yes, Walgreen has come up short on the bottom line in two of the past three reports, but smaller rival Rite Aid posted blowout quarterly results earlier this month.

Strong pharmacy sales helped offset ho-hum performance at the front of the store, and that's an area where Walgreen excels.

My first call is for this Walgreen to close higher on the week.

2.The Nasdaq Composite will beat the Dow this week
Tech has been a big winner in recent years, so betting on tech over stodgy blue chips has been a good bet for me more often than not.

I'm going to stick with this pick. Most of the names in the composite are just too cheap at this point, and tech should be what carries us through this economic recovery. The market is ripe for the tech-stacked secondary stocks to continue to outpace the 30 megacaps that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

3. CalAmp will beat Wall Street's earnings estimates
Some stocks are just flat-out better than others.

CalAmp (NASDAQ: CAMP  ) is a provider of wireless communications solutions. Things have been going well for CalAmp, and on Friday it announced that its mobile resource management portfolio of products and services are faring well in its push for overseas expansion.

Another thing the company does is make analysts look like perpetual underachievers. If analysts say the company posted a profit of $0.16 a share in its latest quarter, I'll argue that it held up better than that. History's on my side!

One of my best tricks to beating the market is finding stocks that perpetually land ahead of the prognosticators. Let's go over the past year of earnings reports.

Quarter

EPS Estimate

EPS

Surprise

Q2 2013

$0.12

$0.17

42%

Q3 2013

$0.12

$0.17

42%

Q4 2013

$0.14

$0.16

14%

Q1 2014

$0.13

$0.16

23%

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Things can change, of course. CalAmp's on pace to grow its top line at an impressive 26% clip this year, but you never know when the market for mobile solutions can run into a lull or CalAmp itself may be outdone by the competition.

However, it's hard to argue against the trend. Everything seems to be falling into place for another market-thumping quarter on the bottom line.

Three more predictions
Well, there are three predictions right there. Let's see how I fare this week.

In the meantime, remember that every good investor wants to build that perfect portfolio that he or she can set and forget forever. Fortunately, it's easier than anyone ever thought. We've uncovered the pillars of such a portfolio today, and we're willing to share The Motley Fool's 3 Stocks to Own Forever. Simply stated, we think they're the best stocks for true long-term investors to know about, and you can uncover them for free today, instantly; just click here now.


Read/Post Comments (2) | Recommend This Article (1)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On September 29, 2013, at 4:43 PM, bluesky64 wrote:

    Rick,

    Thx for the write up. I think sticking with RAD will give better returns I'll even go out on a limb if WAG reports well take the pop and move to RAD. WAG won't double in price. But the consensus is RAD will double in price and still be undervalued to it's peers.

  • Report this Comment On September 29, 2013, at 8:00 PM, johaba wrote:

    I have read the predictions for the week every sunday going on for 2 years now and the 2nd one is always that the nasdaq will beet the dow. It is a boring prediction, why don't you try an predict something else?

Add your comment.

Sponsored Links

Leaked: Apple's Next Smart Device
(Warning, it may shock you)
The secret is out... experts are predicting 458 million of these types of devices will be sold per year. 1 hyper-growth company stands to rake in maximum profit - and it's NOT Apple. Show me Apple's new smart gizmo!

DocumentId: 2659951, ~/Articles/ArticleHandler.aspx, 9/19/2014 6:03:39 AM

Report This Comment

Use this area to report a comment that you believe is in violation of the community guidelines. Our team will review the entry and take any appropriate action.

Sending report...


Advertisement