Marvel Movies Will Dominate the 2014 Box Office

Captain America: The Winter Soldier seems destined to be among 2014's box office leaders. Sources: Marvel Entertainment, Facebook.

Get ready for a three-peat, Marvel fans. Judging by today's numbers, Captain America: The Winter Soldier is on track to be tops at the 2014 box office.

Think what that might mean. Marvel's The Avengers ruled the 2012 box office with a $1.5 billion haul. Iron Man 3 tops this year's charts. A similar win for Winter Soldier would secure Marvel's status as a top-tier Hollywood hitmaker and cement Bob Iger's legacy among the best CEOs in Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS  ) history.

But are the numbers really that good? I'll admit the process is subjective. First, I scoured the 2014 release schedule and singled out likely losers. I then picked what I expect to be the top 10 earners among the wide-release films that remained and organized them by social popularity. Here are the results:

Movie
Facebook Likes
Twitter Followers
YouTube Trailer Views
Rotten Tomatoes Followers

Captain America: The Winter Soldier

9.1 million

37,762

23.4 million

85,672 want to see it

X-Men: Days of Future Past

9.5 million

37,950

22 million

79,065 want to see it

The Hobbit: There and Back Again

3.9 million

223,216

No trailer as of this writing

75,006 want to see it

Transformers: Age of Extinction

27 million

92,903

Trailer due to air during Super Bowl

74,165 want to see it

The Amazing Spider-Man 2

6.9 million

123,437

21.6 million

67,753 want to see it

How to Train Your Dragon 2

5.1 million

371

6.9 million

61,761 want to see it

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay -  Part 1

12.2 million

1,076,921

No trailer as of this writing

57,057 want to see it

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

748,702

7,080

First trailer due on Dec. 18

35,912 want to see it

Rio 2

5.3 million

2,845

60,290

30,130 want to see it

Guardians of the Galaxy

53,506

No official account

No trailer as of this writing

23,204 want to see it

Sources: Facebook, Rotten Tomatoes, Twitter, YouTube.

Winter Soldier ranks highest on Rotten Tomatoes, where more than 85,000 users say they want to see the movie. There are 23.4 million views of its trailer on YouTube while more than 9.1 million "like" Cap on Facebook. I'd expect all these totals to grow exponentially when Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. returns next year with episodes that tease a movie tie-in.

But can we really trust social data as a predictor of financial success? Research by Adobe Systems finds that movies which experience "social buzz" ahead of release tend to outperform at the box office. Winter Soldier already looks like that sort of film.

So does The Amazing Spider-Man 2 and X-Men: Days of Future Past. Just look at the millions of views for each movie's trailer. That's no doubt great news for Sony (NYSE: SNE  ) , which is producing a fast-growing family of Spidey films, and 21st Century Fox, which is building its own interconnected version of the Marvel Universe starring the X-Men and Fantastic Four. Disney, meanwhile, gets to collect producer fees for Fox's X-Men films and merchandise sales tied to Sony's Spider-Man productions.

Several other studios also stand to cash in next year. Time Warner gets the third installment in The Hobbit series, which started off earning $1 billion and could get close to that again with the just-released sequel, The Desolation of Smaug. DreamWorks Animation gets another shot at a blockbuster in How to Train Your Dragon 2 while Lions Gate goes for $1 billion with The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1.

Still, I like Marvel in the 2014 box office race. Why? Even if Winter Soldier isn't next year's biggest film, or Guardians of the Galaxy fails (here's why I think it won't), Marvel has never brought four buzzworthy  properties to screen in a single year. That changes in 2014, and Disney investors should be better off for it.

Now it's your turn to weigh in. What is your pick for the top movie of 2014? Which Marvel movie do you expect to do best? Leave a comment in the box below to let us know what you think.

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Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On December 28, 2013, at 2:19 PM, jokeesmurf wrote:

    I agree that these marvel films will do well in 2014 but there is one title on the list that was failed to be mentioned and can be the sleeper hit of 2014 and that film is GODZILLA !

  • Report this Comment On December 28, 2013, at 3:04 PM, delfra wrote:

    Marvel will definitely have a very strong presence at the box office in 2014. While I certainly don't see an 'Avengers' or 'Iron Man 3' sized hit, there will be big smashes. "The Amazing Spider-Man" has the potential to make the most money of the comic book films in 2014 while "Guardians Of The Galaxy" is a dark horse. I think "Captain America: The Winter Soldier" has the advantage of kicking of 2014 as the first comic book and big film that year. The group of comic books films should generate the most money overall but I think "Mockingjay - Part 1" will be the favorite for biggest domestic box office and "The Hobbit: There And Back Again" will be the favorite for biggest international box office. That being said "TASM", "Transformers: Age Of Extinction", "CA: TWS" and "DOFP" should be in the running as well.

  • Report this Comment On December 29, 2013, at 10:20 AM, Taofactor wrote:

    Godzilla, Spider-man 2, Captain America 2, Guardians of the Galaxy ... in that order

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