Ignore the Financials; This Was Zynga's Best Quarter Ever

Social gaming company Zynga (NASDAQ: ZNGA  ) surprised investors last Thursday by releasing its fourth quarter and full-year results a week ahead of schedule. Shares were up over 20% aftermarket as the market responded to some surprisingly good news. What brought on this boost of optimism?  

It wasn't the financials. Zynga reported revenue of $176 million for the quarter, which fell a bit short of the $186 million consensus estimate from analysts but marked the first quarter-on-quarter revenue since mid-2012. The company did beat analyst expectations of a $0.04 loss per share by one cent.  

But the financial metrics weren't the real story in the fourth quarter report. 

Mobile gaming acquisition
Zynga announced an agreement to acquire mobile gaming company NaturalMotion for $527 million in cash and equity. NaturalMotion currently has the top mobile titles CSR Racing and Clumsy Ninja. CSR Racing made $12 million in the first month following its 2012 release and remains a top racing app for iOS.

But the big news in this deal is the technology that comes with the acquisition. 

NaturalMotion owns the Euphoria game animation engine, which was used in the development in Clumsy Ninja but also has a strengthening presence in console games. Euphoria has been used in Grand Theft Auto IV, Red Dead Redemption, and reportedly in the record-breaking fall release Grand Theft Auto V.  Those games all come from Take Two Interactive  (NASDAQ: TTWO  ) subsidiary Rockstar Games and are some of the biggest titles in recent years.

The purchase doesn't mean Zynga's going to leap straight into console games. But the Euphoria engine will help distinguish the look of future Zynga titles from the often flatly cartoony look of the company's freemium games from its competitors. 

Zynga expects the NaturalMotion acquisition to add $70 million to $80 million in bookings and adjusted EBITDA of $15 million to $25 million this year. But this was an incredibly smart buy that should payoff in interesting ways in the future. 

Why does Zynga need a big change?
The company isn't doing the best job with player retention. Zynga reported 27 million daily active users, or DAUs, in the fourth quarter, which was down 52% compared the previous year's quarter and down 12% from the third quarter. The silver lining is that mobile DAUs made up almost half of that number. Why does that matter? Mobile monetization is a difficult task that was hard for even Facebook to manage. A slow growing mobile segment for Zynga at least shows that the company can attract players in that format.  Monthly active users fell 62% year over year and 17% from the previous quarter. 

Average daily bookings per DAU, or ABPU, were up 19% year over year and 10% from the prior quarter. I've written at length about how this is Zynga's key metric because it shows how well the company is monetizing its games. But the caveat is that ABPU can drive up because DAUs drop, which was what happened here. 

The majority of online game revenue still comes from only three titles: Farmville 2, Zynga Poker, and FarmVille.  And it's worth mentioning again that Zynga Poker will soon turn seven years old.

What's next for Zynga?
Keep an eye out for any announcement about how Zynga's utilizing NaturalMotion. This technology could reinvent Zynga's development style and push the company back to the top of the casual games market. And standing out in the crowded field could help with user attention and drive the ABPU to organic growths.  

Zynga has relied too heavily on sequels or near replicas of existing games. And that strategy has obvious limits or so few games wouldn't account for so much revenue. But the NaturalMotion acquisition could push Zynga toward being a legitimate content innovator. And that would prove a total game-changer. 

Foolish final thoughts
The fourth quarter report wasn't phenomenal from a numbers standpoint, but the NaturalMotion acquisition is one of the smartest moves Zynga has made in...possibly the entire company history. 


Read/Post Comments (2) | Recommend This Article (0)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On February 05, 2014, at 1:51 PM, speculawyer wrote:

    Zynga is flailing. It is pretty much hit or miss. If they manage to get hit game like Candy Crush they'll do great. If they can't find that super hit game, they'll drop.

  • Report this Comment On February 05, 2014, at 1:58 PM, z06forum wrote:

    Great Article,

    alwasy nice to read other input especially if the author "Gets it" . Nice not to rehash the past as future direction.

    Don seems methodical and well known to be historically sucessful on all fronts. He is not a one trick pony.

    He is a winner and wants winners on his team.

    Love what he is doing thus far and I am putting my money on him and the rest of the team with confidence..

Add your comment.

Sponsored Links

Leaked: Apple's Next Smart Device
(Warning, it may shock you)
The secret is out... experts are predicting 458 million of these types of devices will be sold per year. 1 hyper-growth company stands to rake in maximum profit - and it's NOT Apple. Show me Apple's new smart gizmo!

DocumentId: 2825104, ~/Articles/ArticleHandler.aspx, 11/27/2014 1:41:32 PM

Report This Comment

Use this area to report a comment that you believe is in violation of the community guidelines. Our team will review the entry and take any appropriate action.

Sending report...

Apple's next smart device (warning, it may shock you

Apple recently recruited a secret-development "dream team" to guarantee its newest smart device was kept hidden from the public for as long as possible. But the secret is out. In fact, ABI Research predicts 485 million of this type of device will be sold per year. But one small company makes Apple's gadget possible. And its stock price has nearly unlimited room to run for early-in-the-know investors. To be one of them, and see Apple's newest smart gizmo, just click here!


Advertisement