3 Predictions for the New Week

went out on a limb last week, and now it's time to see how that decision played out.

  • I predicted that Netflix  (NASDAQ: NFLX  )  would move lower on the week. After soaring nearly 30% in May I figured that the leading premium video streaming service provider was due for a breather. Bulls thought otherwise, pushing the reborn market darling even higher on the week. The stock closed 2.9% higher. I was wrong.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average  (DJINDICES: ^DJI  )  had been clobbering the Nasdaq Composite through April and early May, but it's been the other way around in recent weeks. My second prediction was for the Nasdaq to beat the Dow on the week. It happened. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 1,9% on the week. The Dow moved 1.2% higher. I was right.
  • My final call was for Ambarella  (NASDAQ: AMBA  )  to beat Wall Street's income estimates in its latest quarter. The provider of video compression chips used to power GoPro wearable cameras, Dropcam surveillance systems, and other products had beaten analyst targets consistently over the past four quarters, and I was banking on a repeat performance. We saw it close out the quarter with a profit of $0.25 a share. Analysts had been projecting net income of $0.21 a share. I was right.

Two out of three? I can do better than that, even though I can't complain about going eight for nine over the past three weeks.

Let me once again whip out my trusty, dusty, and occasionally accurate crystal ball to make three calls that may play out over the next few trading days.

1. RadioShack will lose more than Wall Street is expecting
It isn't easy being RadioShack  (NYSE: RSH  )  these days. The small-box consumer-electronics retailer made a bad bet on emphasizing mobile products, and these days it follows up a head-turning Super Bowl ad with news that it's closing hundreds of stores.

It's against this backdrop that RadioShack is posting quarterly results on Tuesday. Analysts see a deficit of $0.52 a share, but it's easy to bet on more red ink than even that would seem to suggest. RadioShack has missed Wall Street estimates in each of its four previous quarter.

My first call is for the stock to post a larger deficit than the pros are forecasting. 

2. Nasdaq will beat the Dow this week
I've routinely picked the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite to beat the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and it was a bad bet through most of March and April, but it's been rolling in recent weeks. I'm going to stick with it again for a repeat performance. My second call is for the Nasdaq Composite to beat the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the week.

3. Christopher & Banks will beat Wall Street's earnings estimates
Some stocks are just flat-out better than others. Christopher & Banks  (NYSE: CBK  ) is a specialty retailer of clothing for women. It operates 542 stores under the Christopher & Banks, CJ Banks, and MPW monikers.

Another thing it does is make analysts look like perpetual underachievers. If analysts say the company rang up a profit of $0.21 a share in its latest quarter, I'll argue that it held up better than that. History's on my side!

One of my best tricks to beating the market is finding stocks that perpetually land ahead of the prognosticators. Let's go over the past year of earnings reports.

Quarter

EPS Estimate

EPS

Surprise

Q1 2013

($0.07)

$0.02

129%

Q2 2013

($0.02)

($0.01)

50%

Q3 2013

$0.11

$0.23

109%

Q4 2013

($0.93)

($0.01)

67%

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Things can change, of course. The apparel market can be fickle, and retailers are still trying to bounce back after the rough winter weather that stung holiday sales. Christopher & Banks also has been largely ignored by investors over the years. You have to go back more than four years to find the last time that the shares traded in the double digits . 

That's all stuff to keep in mind down the road, but not now. Everything seems to be falling into place for another market-thumping quarter on the bottom line.

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