Solar's Not Much Fun

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The solar reporting season started out sunny, but it's ending with a whimper.

A lot of the dreariness has to do with events subsequent to Sept. 30, so the fact that firms like SunPower (Nasdaq: SPWRA) reported early reflects a lot of that optimism. More recent quarterly calls -- like those from JA Solar (Nasdaq: JASO) and ReneSola (NYSE: SOL) -- have revealed solar rot.

Rounding up the third-quarter reports were Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE) last week and Solarfun Power (Nasdaq: SOLF) today. As both firms are Chinese photovoltaic players, a little compare and contrast should serve us well.

In terms of margins, Yingli reported far stronger numbers. Solarfun, on the other hand, took a number of charges, stemming from unusable materials, inventory writedowns, and prepayments considered "at risk." That last issue is exactly why I've previously cast an uneasy eye on rising prepayments as a percentage of firm assets -- though ironically, it was Yingli that had me nervous on that front. Even without the charges, Yingli's margins were still significantly higher than those of Solarfun.

Like Suntech Power (NYSE: STP), Solarfun announced that it's placing further expansion on pause. Yingli, on the other hand, is pushing forward with a capacity expansion to 600 megawatts, due by the third quarter of 2009. Part of Yingli's borrowing base is now a long-term credit facility, in contrast to the usual short-term bank borrowings most often employed by Chinese growth companies.

A comment by Solarfun that the firm expects to be cash flow-positive in the second half of next year wasn't too thrilling, considering that Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) has already hit this milestone. Still, the firm's cash collection does appear fairly strong, with days sales outstanding coming in well below that reported by Yingli.

For now, I'm not crazy about either name, but Yingli appears to be the more sound of the two solar shops. Fools seem to agree, having awarded Yingli five stars in Motley Fool CAPS, versus Solarfun's three. Make an outperform call on your favorite -- Yingli or Solarfun -- today.

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Fool contributor Toby Shute is active in CAPS under the name TMFSmashy, but he doesn't have a position in any company mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On December 02, 2008, at 6:34 PM, Fairhopeguy wrote:

    All of these Analyst commenting on the fact that Solar companies are faltering is a freaking Joke. For the past two years almost every financial blogger has had a bone to pick with the chinese companies when it came to their companies. Yet most of these companies have grown by leaps and bounds while many companies in the U.S. have taking it on the CHIN.

    Where was everyone when STP, SOL and LDK were growing like a wild fire? All anyone wanted to do was knock them for being chinese..

    Have any of you BOZO's analyst looked at the new facility being contructed by LDK for the manufacturing of POLY silicon. (See LDK website for full report) By 2011, LDK and SOL will be able to produce poly at somewhere between $35 and $50 per Kg. At this time they will be able to realize profit margins in the neighborhood of 30 to 35% while increasing the efficiency of the wafers to somewhere over 23%. This gets you to Grid Parity. Buy low sell high.

    I'm so sick of reading about the Bashing of Solar companies while they are growing. What ever happened to long term investing. Buy the best at a low price, build a position and sell in three years when the companies have quadrupled. It's going to happen.

    As for now, Hell yes the companies are struggling, Yet the whole sector is still growing at over 40% per year. Can you idiots name me another sector on the planet that is growing at that rate??? Anyone??

    There isn't one.

    Solar power is the internet of the next two decades. To bad most ANALyst and Financial writers can't see past there keyboards to realize this or maybe they have there heads to far up wall streets ass. BTW wall street knows the chinese are killing it when it comes to Solar Power. Just look on the MFFAIS web site and you will see that the Goldman Sach's and the Merrills and the J.P. Morgans are all acquiring shares of companies like SOL and LDK as we speak. Thank God they don't follow what most of you Bozo's write and have more than a three month outlook on the sectors potential. You people need to get a life and learn to invest.

  • Report this Comment On December 02, 2008, at 8:49 PM, PeterRCarlton wrote:

    I do not believe that the MF site should be posting this type of emotional and sometimes childist comment/rant.

    I've seen worse but this is a fine example of someone that has gotten burnt and crying about it on line.

    These rants, especially those written with any vulgarity should be edited from the site.

    Just my opinion but if anyone agrees, please speak out.

  • Report this Comment On December 03, 2008, at 11:06 PM, Investorlion wrote:

    I think if you skip the emotions from the first commenter's writing and look at the raw facts, you will find a lot of truth. I dont think that person is burnt or anything at all. In fact, if he/she is putting their money where their mouth is, they will reap big rewards in 5 years.

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