Technically, Human Genome Sciences (Nasdaq: HGSI) has one drug for sale, but it's between shipments of ABthrax, its anthrax treatment, to the government, so Human Genome's earnings release Thursday was rather dry.
The company recorded a measly $18.8 million in revenue from partnerships with GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) and Novartis (NYSE: NVS) and lost a lot of money, though less than last year. You get the picture.
But don't let the nature of the (mostly) drugless biotech lull you to sleep. Like a good horror flick, there's something lurking in the woods, and it's going to send the stock moving in one direction or the other on the other side of Halloween.
On Monday, we'll get to hear the results from the second phase 3 trial of Benlysta in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients. The suspense has been growing since Human Genome and its partner Glaxo announced the release date a few weeks ago. It's rare that investors get more than an overnight warning of the release of phase 3 trial results. Usually companies want to get them out as soon as the data is compiled.
Just a few months ago, no one gave the drug much chance of working, but the first phase 3 trial was positive and the stock is up more than 500% since then. That success should give investors confidence that the second trial will work, but it doesn't guarantee success, as InterMune's (Nasdaq: ITMN) 50% success rate in phase 3 trials shows.
The risk of failure is also increased because Benlysta treats lupus -- the place where good drugs go to die. Biogen Idec (Nasdaq: BIIB), Teva Pharmaceutical (Nasdaq: TEVA), and BioMarin Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: BMRN) all have drugs in the lupus graveyard, and a new drug hasn't been approved specifically to treat it in decades.
The way I see it, there's less upside potential than downside risk at this point, and I'll take a pass and watch from the sidelines while munching on leftover Halloween candy Monday morning.
Got a different take? Let us know in the comments box below.
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