Android Is Even Bigger Than You Think

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I want whatever it is my Foolish colleague Hunter Pavela is eating nowadays. Here's what he wrote three weeks ago:

With Android 2.0 devices coming to market, Google will soon be partaking in that windfall. By limiting its killer product to AT&T, Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) allowed an opening for the competition -- an opening that Google seems well-prepared to exploit. I'd say that's a threat.

I would, too, especially after having seen new numbers from Google's (Nasdaq: GOOG) recently acquired AdMob unit. Android had 20% of U.S. smartphone traffic during October, according its report.

But Android may be an even bigger threat to Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM) and Palm (Nasdaq: PALM). Here's a look at the month-over-month numbers:

Operating System

September 09

October 09

Difference (+/-)

iPhone OS

48%

55%

+7

Android

17%

20%

+3

RIM OS

14%

12%

-2

Palm webOS

10%

5%

-5

Windows Mobile

5%

4%

-1

Source: AdMob. Figures are for U.S. traffic share.

Impressive, eh? This is beginning to look like a two-horse race -- the iPhone's Coke to Android's Pepsi, at least here in the States. Nokia's (NYSE: NOK) Symbian is still a serious player worldwide. We should also concede that Motorola's (NYSE: MOT) high-profile rollout of the Droid smartphone has probably given Android a boost in the ratings.

Even so, Microsoft's (Nasdaq: MSFT) Windows Mobile continues to suffer fading influence here and abroad. The OS accounted for just 3% of smartphone requests worldwide during both September and October.

So Hunter had it right; Google's robot army is on the march. And while Apple may be the ultimate target, for now it's the lesser combatants that are sustaining all the collateral damage.

But that's my take. Now it's your turn to weigh in. How big a threat is Android to the iPhone and the rest of the smartphone industry? Please vote in the poll below. You can also sound off using the comments box at the bottom.

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Will Android win the smartphone wars?

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Apple is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor selection. Nokia and Microsoft are Motley Fool Inside Value picks. Motley Fool Options has recommended a diagonal call on Microsoft. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.

Fool contributor Tim Beyers had stock and options positions in Apple and a stock position in Google at the time of publication. Check out Tim's portfolio holdings and Foolish writings, or connect with him on Twitter as @milehighfool. The Motley Fool is also on Twitter as @TheMotleyFool. The Fool's disclosure policy wonders what it would be like to live in a van down by the river.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On November 23, 2009, at 3:33 PM, accelerando wrote:

    The problem for google is that it doesn't really make money from android -- it make money from search. And its search business has zero future.

    Ai based web crawlers are no match for cagey website developers. Google search returns less and less useful info, more and more garbage and there is nothing they can do about it.

    Targeted apps for mobile phones will eliminate the need for search engines. Much, much quicker than most folks think.

    Imagine looking for a restaurant in a new town -- imagine the useless garbage google or yahoo or bing or any search engine will give you. Then imagine how quick and easy this search is from any of twenty apps from your mobile. End of story -- nighty, night google. <yikes, I just talked myself into selling my last remaining shares!!>

  • Report this Comment On November 23, 2009, at 4:06 PM, daveshouston wrote:

    Google gives away Android for free. They make their money from ad revenues when users run Google Apps. So they should benefit just as much when Google apps run on an iPhone as on a Droid or other Android phone.

    Android is mainly a threat to Windows Mobile because that's where Android is scoring. It's long-time Windows Mobile customers like Motorola and HTC who are switching to Android.

    Android is developing into a fragmented market for software applications. Each Android model has custom features so software apps won't just run on every Android model. For example, one Android phone has a physical keyboard and another a touchscreen keyboard. If the app was written to expect a physical keyboard it won't work on the other model. Apple doesn't have this problem.

    Android phones are being sold to unknowledgeable consumers by Verizon and T-Mobile sales people who are claiming it's "just like an iPhone." Most consumers don't realize that App availability should be their the most important consideration when choosing a smart phone. It's Apps that enable you to customize your phone and make it do whatever you want.

  • Report this Comment On November 23, 2009, at 5:02 PM, Gauss77 wrote:

    Daveshouston doesn't seem to be knowledgeable about android apps. I use various android platforms, with and without physical keyboards as part of my job. I've yet to run into an app that relied on something

    Google fairly thoughtfully designed the SDK to eliminate such problems. The only real issue is new features in new releases of the OS, which exists in every platform, even your precious iphone.

  • Report this Comment On November 23, 2009, at 5:17 PM, ReadEmAnWeep wrote:

    I don't think accelerando knows/understands google's business model.

  • Report this Comment On November 23, 2009, at 5:17 PM, InfoThatHelp wrote:

    iPhone OS and Android are divvying up the mobile market impacting both the consumer and the in-house enterprise segments.

    iPhone OS will be used for rapid development which typically takes 1 to14 days of development for rapid deployment. Android will be used to enterprise infrastructural projects typically targeting enterprise specializations exploiting the customization layer of Android allowing enterprises to incorporate their specific hardware and/or software advantages to differentiate their offerings from their competition.

    Android is specifically a major factor in displacing Research in Motion offerings within enterprises because Android being a superior robust platform is a logical and cost efficient and long term strategic choice over the proprietary, closed, limited and very expensive Rim platform.

    iPhone OS and Android complement each other whereas Rim had been a long term stalwart about to be phased out entirely.

    Plus, it is much more enjoyable to develop on iPhone OS and Android than the Rim SDK and platform.

  • Report this Comment On November 23, 2009, at 5:29 PM, BR14 wrote:

    "Android being a superior robust platform"

    Contrary to most ill informed commentators, RIM's OS is the most advanced and secure out there. And thats according to independent auditors. The UI is a different question, but we're talking robust.

    RIM also has carrier based infrastructure that allows data to be compressed securely to the handheld from within your enterprise and means carriers can generally handle 10 times the content of other smartphones for the same cost (but charged at the same rates to the consumer).

    Android doesn't even come close. Cool phones though and definitely catching up to iPhone in the consumer market and among Linux geeks (though have you seen Nokia's Maemo? V.Nice)

  • Report this Comment On November 23, 2009, at 5:37 PM, InfoThatHelp wrote:

    Enterprise email will be displaced as well as being encapsulated by enterprise services and Workflow typically by infrastructures and systems already available executing in many corporations. Microsoft Sharepoint Workflow, SAP Worlflow have emails embedded with the work items and is part of the workflow definition process.

    One of the most adament complaints email users have is the static nature of emails lacking the ability to function like an ASP or JaveScript page allowing dynamic content depending on the context and user input making the email quite limited, incomplete for information needed, and untimely, as well as very hard to manage. Workflow should completely displace email in time, making Rim email quite unnecessary in perform business functions.

  • Report this Comment On November 23, 2009, at 5:45 PM, InfoThatHelp wrote:

    Rim OS is nowhere nearly as robust as Unix OS platforms such as Solaris, HPUX, IBM AIX all of which run on multimillion Unix Servers like the HP Superdome. IBM RoadRunner which cost over $20 million also runs Unix for the US military is definitely more robust than the Rim OS. Even SuSE linux is much more robust than the Rim OS, Apple OSX is another OS much more robust than the Rim OS.

    iPhone OS is a subset of Apple OSX, it is very robust, I will compare it with Rim OS to see if iPhone OS is indeed more robust than the Rim OS but, the fact is iPhone OS and the much weaker Android have heritage from Unix, which is the most robust OS ever, by far much more robust than the Rim OS.

  • Report this Comment On November 23, 2009, at 5:47 PM, InfoThatHelp wrote:

    Super Computers like Cray also runs Unix, not Rim OS (a joke).

  • Report this Comment On November 23, 2009, at 5:53 PM, InfoThatHelp wrote:

    The most secure platforms run with RSA. The company with the highest level of security is NSA, definitely not Research in Motion which is on a JV with RSA with little to show. Dan Brown wrote a novel 'Digital Fortress' about a NSA employee...

    Rim is not secure as you think. In time, iPhone in collaboration with RSA will deliver better and higher performance mobile security.

  • Report this Comment On November 23, 2009, at 7:52 PM, VegasMartin wrote:

    I'm a big believer in the Droid. But what the hell is going on with MOT? The stock has beaten down when I thought it was going to hold onto $9.

    http://www.ShootTheBears.com

  • Report this Comment On November 23, 2009, at 7:53 PM, VegasMartin wrote:

    I'm a big believer in the Droid. But what the hell is going on with MOT? The stock has been beaten down to $8.20. I thought it was going to hold onto $9.00. Only up 2 cents on a day the Dow rallies 130 points? Something isn't adding up.

    http://www.ShootTheBears.com

  • Report this Comment On November 23, 2009, at 8:54 PM, xmmj wrote:

    If you really want to compare Android with iPhone OS, I think you need to read thoroughlythe following article from Apple Insider (link below):

    "Inside Google's Android and Apple's iPhone OS as core platforms"

    While I have heard criticism of it being biased, no specific data was noted as being wrong. So until I hear specific arguments against it, I have to say that it lays out a very convincing explanation for why Android is seriously flawed. The most damning points (IMHO) are

    1- hardware fragmentation

    2- severe limitations of the RAM memory space available for apps

    3- lack of any quality control/security over the apps.

    4- Google's motivation behind Android is to stop MS from invading its advert revenue stream - and it has no real commitment to the platform.

    If the points in the article are true, then the very real flaws of Android will at some point become apparent, and the platform will flounder. If that should happen, then Apple will most likely pick up the pieces.

    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/09/11/05/inside_googles...

  • Report this Comment On November 23, 2009, at 8:59 PM, xmmj wrote:

    If you really want to compare Android with iPhone OS, I think you need to read thoroughlythe following article from Apple Insider (link below):

    "Inside Google's Android and Apple's iPhone OS as core platforms"

    While I have heard criticism of it being biased, no specific data was noted as being wrong. So until I hear specific arguments against it, I have to say that it lays out a very convincing explanation for why Android is seriously flawed. The most damning points (IMHO) are

    1- hardware fragmentation

    2- severe limitations of the RAM memory space available for apps

    3- lack of any quality control/security over the apps.

    4- Google's motivation behind Android is to stop MS from invading its advert revenue stream - and it has no real commitment to the platform.

    If the points in the article are true, then the very real flaws of Android will at some point become apparent, and the platform will flounder. If that should happen, then Apple will most likely pick up the pieces.

    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/09/11/05/inside_googles...

  • Report this Comment On November 23, 2009, at 9:03 PM, buynholdisdead wrote:

    I cant understand why anyone would write off Rimm.They are putting 300 million more into R and D from last year. Maybe I am missing something but they have no short term debt and I am thinking they are going to come out with something that is going to keep them in the hunt. One thing I have to say about Apple. At least they didnt make the Iphone propietary like they did the Mac and a co worker was showing the iphone to me and bragging about his gps. The only thing was the gps was run by Google Maps, lol.

  • Report this Comment On November 23, 2009, at 10:00 PM, InfoThatHelp wrote:

    Rimm is a foregone loser because its Rim OS cannot hold candles to Apple's iPhone Unix, and Android Linux. All hardware and software are built on top of the OS. Rimm's OS is very limited, proprietary, closed, small, outdated compared to Unix and Lunux. The comparison of Rim OS to Unix is like comparing a small office building to a 150 story high huge complex like the World Trade Center before its destruction.

    Unix was first designed by the ingenius Al Thompson of Bell Labs at Murray Hills, New Jersey. Unix was then enhanced and improved by hundreds of academia, military, engineering, industrial. communications organizations. Literally trillions of dollars of R&D and generations of human ingenuity and practical usage have made Unix the only universal operating system which have no peers. Rim OS cannot compare to Unix. Rim offerings are based on Rim OS. Rim will be phased out by the Unix offerings now in a very short time frame. There is no Android for Rim blackberrys and Google will not provide one. Rimm is doomed.

  • Report this Comment On November 23, 2009, at 11:00 PM, buynholdisdead wrote:

    That makes sense "Info" but who is to say Rimm is going to keep the same os. Unix and Linux are open systems anyone can build their os using it. I think this maybe more interesting than anyone can say. I just cant believe Rimm would let their company fail over an os. I am betting on a turnaround. But willing to run for the hills if it doesnt happen.

  • Report this Comment On November 24, 2009, at 3:19 AM, buynholdisdead wrote:

    Dang where is the delete button.

  • Report this Comment On November 24, 2009, at 9:24 AM, jengelsma wrote:

    Droid is indeed helping the Android numbers. Check out this data from AdMob:

    http://www.androidcentral.com/admob-report-shows-android-gro...

  • Report this Comment On November 24, 2009, at 11:53 AM, InfoThatHelp wrote:

    Rim hardware and software offerings are all extremely hardwired to the Rim OS. Which is why Rim offerings are impossible to renovate. Rim cannot replace the Rim OS because there are thousands of Rim client corporations already spent millions of dollars of investments into Rim OS based offerings, it's impossible nor feasible for them to forego the investments just because Rim wants to replace the OS which would invalidate all of their sunken investments. The costs of rewriting the Rim OS based on Unix are prohibitively high on top of having to rewire the entirely line of products and software which makes the idea of replacing the OS an impossibility. Another issue is Rim does not have the technical or managerial capabilities nor the resources. Google is also unwilling in producing an Android OS for Rim. There is no place for Rim to go. Rim is indeed doomed as we all knew.

  • Report this Comment On November 24, 2009, at 6:00 PM, timjones17 wrote:

    One of the reasons why Windows is on 90% of desktops is that it runs on many kinds of machines- from UMPC's and netbooks, to tricked out gaming monsters. Android runs on many kinds of mobile devices made by different manufacturers, and that will help it overtake Symbian as the most popular smartphone OS.

  • Report this Comment On November 24, 2009, at 8:08 PM, InfoThatHelp wrote:

    75%+ of all the data and information in the world are stored and managed in the IBM ZOS mainframe computers, if not more.

    IBM mainframe computers run the entire world, from governments to private enterprises. These mainframe computers execute 7/24 non-stop with all the Social Security Numbers in the world, all the bank accounts, utilities info, financial info, FBI, personal info, taxation, traveling info, industries, traffic systems, just about every facet of our societies, even Vatican uses IBM mainframe computers. Without IBM mainframe computers running our nations and communities, the world as we know today, would be the end of the whole world.

    IBM mainframe computers are entirely made by IBM, there are no different hardware, software, firmware, devices, OS versions, languages, concepts, facilities, cultures; and that's what make the IBM mainframe computers the foundation of the entire world, ruling all the rulers in the world, king of all kings.

  • Report this Comment On November 25, 2009, at 3:21 AM, InfoThatHelp wrote:

    So many blackberry wielding fanatics are oblivious to the fact that comparing a blackberry to an IBM mainframe is akin to comparing a firefly to the Sun. Yet, instead of making use of the mainframe in doing their business functions, they rely on the blackberry emails for business information in performing their jobs!! No wonder our enterprises failed, and as long as these blackberry addicts keep on using blackberry emails for doing jobs, their enterprises will fail even more. Perhaps that is part of our destiny.

  • Report this Comment On November 26, 2009, at 4:16 AM, jakerome wrote:

    Really? You've accepted the AdMob report as gospel, despite all the disclaimers that Admob themselves put on the report? That's just awful. A good writer would conduct some independent research & analysis, and figure out that some platforms skew higher because it includes ads serving within applications. A really good writer would go further, and try to figure out why Palm usage spiked in September; maybe you'd learn that they had a bug in the code, who knows?

    But then again, this is the Motley Fool, and I don't expect to find good writers here.

  • Report this Comment On November 26, 2009, at 11:18 AM, TMFMileHigh wrote:

    Hello jakerome,

    Thanks for the comment.

    >>You've accepted the AdMob report as gospel, despite all the disclaimers that Admob themselves put on the report? That's just awful.

    Of course not, and ... really? Sorry, but this strikes me as a bogus complaint. If you have a beef with the AdMob report, then you have a beef with the entire history of AdMob's reporting since the methodology hasn't changed.

    Let's be clear on what AdMob is and what it measures. AdMob is the world's largest mobile ad market, and is now owned by Google. As such, it measures requests served by applications that exist on smartphones -- in other words, the traffic that matters most to marketers, advertisers, and software developers.

    Let's also remember that we're seeing these numbers as Android and iPhone OS continue to attract substantial interest from coders:

    http://www.fool.com/investing/high-growth/2009/11/25/how-and...

    Palm's numbers will undoubtedly improve as webOS's applications library grows.

    Foolish best wishes for a Happy Thanksgiving,

    Tim (TMFMileHigh and @milehighfool on Twitter)

  • Report this Comment On November 26, 2009, at 12:13 PM, jakerome wrote:

    I do have a beef with their entire history. Admob's metric measure only one thing-- how well are they selling ads. Look at the spike WebOS/Palm had in September. Do you think that was a real phenomenon? I doubt it-- I would bet that they had miscoded their in-application support for WebOS, and they were serving ads 24/7 to background apps, thus skewing the numbers. Now, I don't know that for sure, but it's the kind of question I would expect a reporter to ask when he says ad share fall 50% in one month for a mobile platform that is gaining share daily.

    Did you know that AdMob serves ads within application on the iPhone, Android and WebOS but not Blackberry, Symbian or WinMo? Guess what that means-- the numbers will be skewed to favor those platforms.

    AdMob puts out a press release about their business is doing, and too many financial sites report this as if it's some broad measure of usage. Why not check out statcounter's numbers, which measure browser visits equally on all platforms?

    http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-ww-weekly-200922-200948

    Lots of great data there. Since the point of the report isn't to promote their ad business, they don't put out slanted press releases each month, so you have to dig a little deeper for the data.

  • Report this Comment On November 26, 2009, at 12:13 PM, jakerome wrote:

    I do have a beef with their entire history. Admob's metric measure only one thing-- how well are they selling ads. Look at the spike WebOS/Palm had in September. Do you think that was a real phenomenon? I doubt it-- I would bet that they had miscoded their in-application support for WebOS, and they were serving ads 24/7 to background apps, thus skewing the numbers. Now, I don't know that for sure, but it's the kind of question I would expect a reporter to ask when he says ad share fall 50% in one month for a mobile platform that is gaining share daily.

    Did you know that AdMob serves ads within application on the iPhone, Android and WebOS but not Blackberry, Symbian or WinMo? Guess what that means-- the numbers will be skewed to favor those platforms.

    AdMob puts out a press release about their business is doing, and too many financial sites report this as if it's some broad measure of usage. Why not check out statcounter's numbers, which measure browser visits equally on all platforms?

    http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-ww-weekly-200922-200948

    Lots of great data there. Since the point of the report isn't to promote their ad business, they don't put out slanted press releases each month, so you have to dig a little deeper for the data.

  • Report this Comment On November 26, 2009, at 2:23 PM, InfoThatHelp wrote:

    There are no doubts from anybody over the fact that iPhone is number one in web traffic.

  • Report this Comment On November 26, 2009, at 4:15 PM, jakerome wrote:

    Actually, StatsCounter seems to show that Symbian is still #1, with the iPhone a strong second and RIM leading the rest in 3rd.

    So there are doubts.

  • Report this Comment On November 26, 2009, at 4:25 PM, topsecret09 wrote:

    Mororola has re-Invented themseves before. Anybody underestimating this company and their droid, will miss out on a nice profit In the next couple of years. I green thumbed them at 5 bucks at 1 star, now at 2 stars? I hope the talking heads at the street.com keep dissing them. I will just keep buying It under 9 bucks. http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=278916&t=0...

  • Report this Comment On November 28, 2009, at 12:43 PM, InfoThatHelp wrote:

    iPhone consumes 52% of Internet traffic, nothing else comes close.

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