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Everybody Hates Netflix?

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Where have all of Netflix's (Nasdaq: NFLX  ) glowing five-star ratings gone?

Shares of the DVD rental service fell this morning, after analyst Barton Crockett from Lazard Capital Markets  downgraded them.

Crockett is concerned about the company's ability to keep growing at a healthy pace, predicting that year-end subscribers clocked in at the low end of the company's guidance of 12 million to 12.3 million accounts.

He's not alone.

Citigroup and Merriman Curhan Ford downgraded the stock last month. You have to go all the way back to the summer to find the latest time a major analyst has upgraded shares of Netflix.

In theory, this is just when Netflix likes its analysts. The company has beaten Wall Street's bottom-line targets in each of the six previous quarters, growing recessionary wings at a time when many consumer-based subscription services struggled.

Analysts fear that the company's strategy of spending to widen its library of streaming flicks and television shows will keep margins in check, but I see it as a great subscriber retention tool.

After all, Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL  ) and Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN  ) want to sell or rent out individual titles. Blockbuster (NYSE: BBI  ) and Coinstar's (Nasdaq: CSTR  ) Redbox kiosks want to rent you physical discs, one at a time. There really isn't a worthy competitor taking on Netflix's smorgasbord approach to digital, where unlimited streaming is available at no additional cost to most of the company's subscribers.

In the meantime, Netflix is aggressively padding its celluloid moat. I'm not a big fan of the second-citizenry implications of its recent deal to give Time Warner (NYSE: TWX  ) four weeks of marketing new retail DVD releases before making them available to its members, but I get that it makes financial sense. If Netflix invests those savings into more streaming options -- even if only half of its subscribers are using the service -- it's not just throwing money away. There will come a time when others take on the Netflix streaming buffet model, and it's simply building a bigger and bigger lead.

Along the way, what does it say about Netflix that it has been able to beat analyst expectations save for a few rare quarters? The company, quite frankly, knows how to manage expectations and align its costs to generate applause-worthy profitability.

Hating on Netflix has been a dangerous pastime. It's not likely it will be any different in the future.

Are you growing bearish on Netflix? Share your thoughts in the comments box below.

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Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On January 14, 2010, at 2:42 PM, byhycelo wrote:

    Well, I know David loves Netflix, and until he says to dump it, I consider his passion for the company a good sign.

  • Report this Comment On January 14, 2010, at 2:57 PM, Fool wrote:

    As an enduser who just got onboard the streaming train, I would say both Sony and Netflix have great prospects. I bought the last PS3 in town, and was playing blu-ray and streaming netflix the next day. I have no use for the gaming aspect of the PS3 (though my college age son can't believe I went out and bought one, and can't wait to get home on break)

    I will be watching both NFLX and SNE and will probably buy shares in one or both. No one is offering what NFLX is - it seems a screaming buy both from a consumer's and investor's POV. Asa for SNE, they hit a cross-platform home run with the PS3.

  • Report this Comment On January 14, 2010, at 3:33 PM, fredfoolerly wrote:

    I think Netflix merely suffers from analyst follower knee jerk reaction investing....it was on a roll, the band wagon jumpers got in...a little "concern" and they jump off. I agree with byhycelo...David has a long track record with this company....they see the potential future in growth..It is a good time to add a few shares.

  • Report this Comment On January 14, 2010, at 4:12 PM, SekouMurphy wrote:

    In another write up, the reported noted that analyst Barton Crockett based his recommendation, in part, on comments made by Reed Hastings (that subscriber growth would be 12 million - low end of Netflix' range).

    I watched the interview online and Hastings said 12 million in passing, not as an absolute number.

    I also checked out website traffic on compete.com and wonder whether Crockett is on base for projecting 12 million subs, given that traffic has trended upward since the start of the year. Based on the correlation b/t subs v traffic (total visitors) at the end of '08 to '09, it looks like NFLX will have more than 12 million subs at the end of '09.

    http://www.netflix.com/WiPlayer?movieid=70099615&trkid=1...

  • Report this Comment On January 14, 2010, at 10:14 PM, AlexisMachine wrote:

    I have nothing against Netflix, am not a subscriber nor have I made an investment in this company. The reason for this is that I think that Coinstar, CSTR, through it's Redbox subsidiary offers a better service and overall product than does Netflix and superior investment potential to boot. While I freely admit to being a technological caveman in some ways my greatest reason for seeing Redbox as the superior investment and product lies in one word; Spontaneity. When it comes to renting movies I do not, have not, and will not plan days in advance what movies I would like to watch so I can have them mailed out to me on time for my viewing enjoyment. While Redbox offer's me the ability to get the movie's I want, right away for only $1 a day and the convenience of locating and reserving them online as well as the ability to return the movies to any of the multitudes of Redbox kiosks that exist in my area, Netflix's service to me is wanting by comparison. I like to watch movie's on my big screen TV that despite lacking the HI-DEF qualities of it's newer counterparts will be a fixture in my TV room for years to come. I own neither a PS3 or Blue-Ray DVD player and do not intend to spend hundreds to thousands of dollars to replace everything I have with Blue-Ray compatible electronics. (Thousands if I have to replace my 60" big screen TV with a HI-DEF big screen TV.) My large screen TV makes viewing a movie online via streaming through Netflix on a 17-18" computer screen a poor substitute for watching anything if given a choice so Netflix gains nothing there as far as I'm concerned. While I find the concept of constantly dealing with having to return rentals via the mail and wait for the delivery of new ones through the same process annoying at best and a pain in the arse at worst while costing me more money in the process. I am unlikely to rent more than 5 movies a month at $5 from Redbox that a monthly Netflix subscription would run me, $4.95 a month if I'm not mistaken making Redbox the clear money saving choice without the annoying monthly membership charges of Netflix which also create an annoyance should I change bank account or wish to cancel the service. At nearly 30Xs PE ratios I see neither one of these stocks as selling at any kind of value so personally I am invested in CSTR @ around $25.00 per share for a smaller than normal amount of investment than I would usually make with plans to sell my shares @ or above $35.00 with the next 12 months time. I definitely do not see that kind of ROI potential in shares of Netflix in the next 12 months or even few years so my money is on CSTR. What the rightness or wrongness of my investment depends on is whether I am typical or atypical to the consumer market for movie rentals which I believe I am more likely to typify than not. That's just my own opinion, which with $3.95 will get you a cup of coffee these days at SBUX or CBOU depending on certain details specific to the individual. FULL DISCLOSURE: I also think CBOU a far superior investment prospect than SBUX, do not and have never owned 8 track tapes, Betamax or records of any kind. In addition, I have tossed out most of my cassette tapes and VHS as well, however am very content with my CDs and regular DVDs and am LONG on that position.

    PS. I do not hate Netflix just prefer Coinstar's Redbox business model to that of Netflix's.

  • Report this Comment On January 15, 2010, at 7:40 AM, AlexisMachine wrote:

    My overall outlook for shares of Blockbuster Inc. stocks is that .01 one penny per .0001 one ten thousandth of a share is to steep a price to pay for shares of BBI assuming a minimum 1-2 year holding period for all shares bought at that price as 1,10,100,1000,10000,100000, & even 1,000,0000 times the ending share value of $0.00 leaves not much of a margin for any profits on said investment. While I don't hate Blockbuster per se, I do say stick a fork in BBI because it's all done. Given that fairness requires that all sides of this stocks potential be made mention of I will say that for the % of investors who disagree with my outlook on BBI the value of their investments in 1-2 years time is calculated using the following formula: Put all shares of BBI owned into a paper bag and step on it, that equals what their investment will be worth by the end of the given time period. More people believe that Elvis still lives and that Alien's having mastered the technological ability to travel at the speed of light to have visited planet Earth have done so out of their undying curiosity for the endless possibilities they see in the many discoveries they will unlock by probing the rectal cavities of as many inbred hill-billies as they can abduct to run these important tests on. These same people often believe themselves privy to the true knowledge of Elvis's mortality and to have been probed by ETs who traveled to earth at 185,000 miles per second to poke a metal rod up some moron's keister, them being just one of a cadre of toothless Billy-Bobs whose colon's hold many mysteries for such an unfathomably advanced life form such as these aliens must be to have gotten here in the first place. Given the propensity for such hayseeds to exhibit 10 times more credibility than that of investors LONG on BBI it is statistically specious to waste even a single letter to describe their point of view and as such the opinions of such glittering jewels of human stupidity have been left out of this commentary altogether. I am not hateful of investors in BBI so much as contemptuous of such loathsome stupidity that would make Santa Claus himself vomit with rage.

  • Report this Comment On January 20, 2010, at 9:32 AM, belihe wrote:

    I wish I could catch MF enthusiasm for Netflix. I was looking at it for purchase too as i am very tired of paying Direct TV so much money. Just looked at amazon reviews though and found that of 48 or so reviews they were either very poor and coming from angry customers or they were excellent, no middle of the roads at all which is strange I think. In almost every case of bad reviews the customers commented that they got great service during the trial which depriciated to horrible service, they also complained repeatedly about deceptive practices, poor and rude customer service, faulty dvds and even retention of their credit card account in Netflix system for 2 years regardless when the service was ended. It scared me off. Maybe Netflix is just having growing pains but I will wait till the toddler learns to walk and teaches us we don't have to stand over him while he falters. Their basics sound good, the idea is a great one and I am looking beyond that to the day when each TV channel has its own stream-load from my computer to my TV but meanwhile back at the farm the cow still needs a milkin. :)

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Related Tickers

2/10/2012 4:00 PM
NFLX $123.93 Down -0.91 -0.73%
Netflix CAPS Rating: **
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TWX $37.52 Down -0.19 -0.50%
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BLOKA.PK $0.19 Up +0.01 +0.00%
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