Where Will Polycom Go Next?

Videoconferencing systems are a hot commodity right now -- and nobody looks hotter than Polycom (Nasdaq: PLCM  ) .

A few months ago, Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO  ) decided to go big in the sector with a $3.4 billion cash offer for Norwegian teleconference specialist Tandberg. That deal is still pending regulatory approval, and Swiss electronics guru Logitech (Nasdaq: LOGI  ) is also buying smaller videoconferencing outfit LifeSize Communications for a paltry $405 million. The sector is ablaze with consolidation.

In the latest evidence of that trend, Polycom is in serious talks with private equity firm Apax Partners to go private for $3.1 billion. According to Financial Times, negotiations have been going on since last November;  Polycom's rising stock price has steadily pushed the price tag northward.

The deal may vaporize in a haze of rising expectations and share prices, but the news that Polycom is thinking about strategic alternatives could open the door for another, deeper-pocketed partner to step in. Antitrust concerns would probably stop Cisco from buying both Polycom and Tandberg, but the gamut of possible buyers could include multinational giants like Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ  ) , Siemens (NYSE: SI  ) , and maybe even Big Blue IBM (NYSE: IBM  ) .

Videoconferencing is an idea whose time has come. Network-powered meetings across nations and continents can make a lot of financial sense when compared with jumping on a plane for every face-to-face powwow. High-definition screens and cameras can make for a very lifelike experience, lacking only handshakes and the occasional spitball fight. The global infrastructure of the Internet has grown up fast, and it can handle impressive feats nowadays.

Polycom generates positive cash flows quarter after quarter, which also makes it attractive to private equity players such as Apax. The rising interest in its industry has doubled its share price in 12 months, with a 54% jump since early November. Whether the company now goes private, joins a larger company somewhere, or stays put, Polycom's shareholders win.