What Is the Tim Tebow of Stocks?

There may not be a person in sports more polarizing than Tim Tebow. Fans love him, the "experts" can't stand him, but in the face of it all he keeps winning. There must be companies that are similarly hated, loved, and who keep on winning, right?

When comparing Tebow to stocks, I tried to look for similar performance: companies that keep winning, keep outperforming "experts'" estimates, and have rabid fan bases. Here are my top three Tebow stocks.

Sirius XM (Nasdaq: SIRI  )
If you want to spark rage from fans of Sirius XM, all you need to do is write something negative. I found that out the hard way a little over a year ago when I questioned Sirius' staying power. And Sirius XM has outperformed Wall Street's estimates three of the last four quarters as well.

But even with the earnings beats and rabid fan base, investors aren't convinced about Sirius XM. At the end of October, 277 million shares of Sirius had been sold short, the most of any stock on the Nasdaq.

Can Sirius keep winning? Time will tell.

SodaStream (Nasdaq: SODA  )
Until management gave weak guidance after the second quarter, SodaStream's stock was on a roll and everyone was a fan. But the market and its experts fell out of love quickly, including Jim Cramer, after guidance didn't meet expectations.

But the numbers don't lie, and SodaStream came through in the third quarter with another earnings blowout. Doubt all you want, but the last four quarters have looked like Tebow time not just passing expectations but leaving them in the dust.

 

Q4 2010

Q1 2011

Q2 2011

Q3 2011

Analyst EPS Estimates 0.10 euro 0.15 euro 0.22 euro 0.25 euro
Actual EPS 0.25 euro 0.27 euro 0.29 euro 0.42 euro

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

When it comes down to crunch time, SodaStream has all the right moves.

Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX  )
This might be the stock that most closely mimics Tebow's results so far. Netflix has performed extremely well, passing expectations quarter after quarter, but everyone is worried about future failures.

Even the most recent quarter, when everyone began panicking about subscribers fleeing, was a 23.4% earnings beat with earnings per share of $1.16 versus the $0.94 analysts expected.

The Tebow magic at Netflix may have worn off for the time being, but there is reason to believe that international growth and a realization that Qwikster was a terrible idea may be the fourth-quarter adjustment Netflix needs to pull out another unexpectedly good quarter.

Honorable mention
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (Nasdaq: GMCR  ) also gets honorable mention for outstanding growth in the face of expert naysayers. But an earnings miss in the most recent quarter has me wondering if Green Mountain really has Tebow's killer instinct.

Those are my picks, now it's time for you to weigh in. What stock do you think is the Tim Tebow of the stock market? Leave your pick in our comments section below.

Fool contributor Travis Hoium does not have a position in any company mentioned. You can follow Travis on Twitter at @FlushDrawFool, check out his personal stock holdings or follow his CAPS picks at TMFFlushDraw.

Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Netflix, and SodaStream International, as well as creating a lurking gator position in Green Mountain Coffee Roasters. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Read/Post Comments (4) | Recommend This Article (6)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On November 21, 2011, at 4:00 PM, sirifire wrote:

    Yes, Sirius CAN KEEP WINNING AND TIME WILL TRULY TELL THAT IT CAN. It told you this emphatically last year. I was right and you were wrong FROM TODAY'S PERSPECTIVE. And this is not just about being right or wrong. This about understanding the business, its model and its appeal. Sirius is to prosper for years to come. Sirius is going to have the largest margins in radio industry and it will be one of the most profitable companies in industry in principle. People like John Malone knew that three years ago. So far he has made about $4.5B in siri off technically ZERO investment and very reasonable risk. I assume he is much smarter than all analysts put together. This time it may cost him real money to get what he may want. Siri should be vauled today at about $24B taking into account its phenomenal growth in this lousy hysterical economy and unique margins it is starting to produce. In three years this will be a $40B company with about 4B diluted shares. Mark my word!!!

  • Report this Comment On November 22, 2011, at 9:58 PM, tommyretro wrote:

    Do you realize that articles like this can cost new investors a lot of money? I wonder how many people have lost a fortune on Netflix in the past six months due to MF reccs?

  • Report this Comment On November 23, 2011, at 4:24 AM, sikiliza wrote:

    NFLX is a no-go. They are done. GMCR have had their run for the money and SODA is yet to prove that they are not a fad. Not a good collection you have here, mate.

  • Report this Comment On November 30, 2011, at 2:20 PM, Eph415 wrote:

    Some folks should NOT comment before they READ and digest what they are commenting on. The comparison being made is not that these are best bets or that they will always be winning ones, but that they have surprisingly won several times in a row when critics hate them, declaring them to be losers...Like Tim Tebow. This being the case, I believe it is important to ask WHY do they keep winning? Is there a secret to that success? Tim Tebow's success is no secret-he gives the glory to God for the ability to play and win. Do these companies have similar faith, morals or values? If so, I believe that they will almost certainly continue to do well as long as they keep God #1.

Add your comment.

Sponsored Links

Leaked: Apple's Next Smart Device
(Warning, it may shock you)
The secret is out... experts are predicting 458 million of these types of devices will be sold per year. 1 hyper-growth company stands to rake in maximum profit - and it's NOT Apple. Show me Apple's new smart gizmo!

DocumentId: 1593143, ~/Articles/ArticleHandler.aspx, 12/22/2014 12:53:39 PM

Report This Comment

Use this area to report a comment that you believe is in violation of the community guidelines. Our team will review the entry and take any appropriate action.

Sending report...


Advertisement