The market clearly liked BuffaloWild Wings' (Nasdaq: BWLD) third-quarter results, sending the shares up more than 11% following earnings results after the market close yesterday. They opened today up more than 20%. What's a Fool to make of the very favorable turn of events?
Investors who held the stock since August are now up more than 46%; not bad for a couple of months of performance. Unfortunately, if you haven't been in the stock but were considering a purchase, now may not be the best time. While the company didn't provide forward earnings guidance, analysts are currently projecting $1.45 for full-year 2006 and $1.78 for next year. Those numbers may increase after the dazzling quarterly results, but they currently represent rather lofty P/Es of 34 and 28 for this year and next, respectively.
For the third quarter, Buffalo Wild Wings' total revenue increased 32.1% to $68.3 million, which consisted primarily of $60.8 million in company-owned restaurant sales (representing growth of 32.5%). Same-store sales increased the most at company-owned stores as well, growing 11.8%, while franchised units saw a still respectable 6.4% increase. Diluted earnings jumped an astounding 82%, growing to 40 cents per share from 22 cents in the previous year's third quarter.
Based on the way B-dubs is currently growing, it may continue to post stellar results well into the future, but I would characterize the stock as priced for perfection at this point in time. In hindsight, closer to $30 was clearly a better potential entry point, but there will likely be opportunities to pick up the shares at more reasonable levels. That's because the company isn't overly large, with a market cap of only about $400 million. And it has only been public since 2003.
Those conditions aren't a recipe for disaster, but younger, smaller, faster-growing companies are inherently riskier. As a case in point, the stock was clipped to the tune of 10% after the company missed second-quarter results by a measly penny as investors worried growth was coming to a screeching halt. Plus, the restaurant industry is fickle; consumers can embrace a hot concept one day (for example, B-dubs, Texas Roadhouse (Nasdaq: TXRH), Cheesecake Factory (Nasdaq: CAKE), or P.F. Chang's (Nasdaq: PFCB)) and shun it the next (a la OSI Restaurant Partners' (NYSE: OSI) once-sizzling Outback Steakhouses, or Rainforest Cafe, now owned by Landry's (NYSE: LNY)).
However, Buffalo Wild Wings is proving one of the most dynamic restaurant concepts with continued rapid growth potential; the company's goal is to grow its store base 15% annually, its sales by 20% each year, and its bottom line in excess of 25%. Those metrics are as high as you'll find anywhere, save a growing coffeehouse called Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX). Right now, I don't think there is much of a margin of safety built into the stock at current prices, but that could change at any time going forward, so keep this name on your watch list.
For related Foolishness:
Buffalo
Wild Wings is a Hidden Gems pick, Starbucks is a Stock Advisor selection, and OSI Restaurant Partners is an
Inside Value
recommendation.
Fool contributor Ryan Fuhrmann is long shares of Starbucks but has no financial interest in any other company mentioned. Feel free to email him with feedback or to discuss any companies mentioned further. The Fool has an ironclad disclosure policy.
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