Zumiez Is Going Fakie

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In skater jargon, "going fakie" means traveling in reverse, and that appears to be what Zumiez (Nasdaq: ZUMZ) is doing. It may have pulled off a nice skate trick last month, but alas, that isn't going to hold up during the holiday season, judging by the company's having reduced its full-year guidance.

The retailer for skateboarding and snowboarding gear reported that October same-store sales increased 5.1%, versus a 15.9% increase this time last year. Total sales increased 24.6% to $24.7 million.

Zumiez expects to profit far less for the year than Wall Street had expected. It said it's reducing its fiscal 2007 guidance to $0.92 to $0.94 per share, due to its reliance on seasonal merchandise in the fourth quarter. (That sounds like an odd and vague way to describe the fourth quarter; of course it relies on "seasonal" merchandise.)

What a far cry from last month, when Zumiez's results bucked the retail trends so soundly that it made one think skaters and other board sports enthusiasts just don't give a hoot about macroeconomic trends (which is still arguable among that youthful demographic). And Zumiez supplier Volcom (Nasdaq: VLCM) experienced its own face plant last week.

Rivals' news today was mixed. Pacific Sunwear (Nasdaq: PSUN) actually made investors happy (which hasn't happened too often lately) by lifting its third-quarter guidance, despite a drop in October comps. At Abercrombie & Fitch's (NYSE: ANF) Hollister concept, which also competes with Zumiez in apparel, comps dropped 5% for October.

A quick glance at Zumiez's stock price today -- last I checked it was down 30% -- might give investors with a hankering for this traditionally high-growth stock reason to consider it now. (And Zumiez has a history of getting shredded whenever its results are even the least bit disappointing -- part of why I didn't feel particularly compelled by it despite last month's success.)

Bear in mind that the new guidance means Zumiez will grow earnings by only 27% in 2007 -- significantly lower than the 38.5% analysts previously expected. Although caution's definitely in order, Zumiez stock is beginning to look more reasonably priced than just a month ago -- as long as you still believe it will continue to generate high growth for the long term.