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Bag This Smokin' Burrito

By Alyce Lomax April 24, 2008 Comments (3)

16 Recommendations

Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) (NYSE: CMG-B) may have reported an impressive quarterly profit (complete with beating analysts' expectations), but it looks like many investors decided to pass on the burritos for now.

First-quarter net income increased 38.9% to $17.3 million, or $0.52 per share. And if you want to go for the extra guacamole, that EPS figure beat analysts' expectations by $0.04 per share. Revenue surged 29.3% to $305.3 million. That truly doesn't sound so bad, given the difficult times for the U.S. consumer. It's also a difficult time for many restaurant companies, considering the margin-busting environment of surging commodities costs.

As my Foolish colleague Rick Munarriz pointed out this morning over Breakfast with the Fool, Chipotle also reported something many in the industry would envy: a 10.2% quarterly comps gain. Looks pretty mouth-watering to me.

I'm not quite sure why investors saw fit to bid down the stock today. If I were to air a complaint, it would be that the company's press release didn't contain much meat, other than its income statement -- otherwise it just offered highlights from its balance sheet and cash flow statement. Of course, somehow I doubt that's why the stock's down nearly 6% at my last check.

Like former parent McDonald's, Chipotle's a fine stock idea during these tough times when some of us would probably rather avoid investing in higher priced sit-down restaurant companies like Ruby Tuesday (NYSE: RT), Cheesecake Factory (Nasdaq: CAKE), and P.F. Chang's (Nasdaq: PFCB) -- until the consumer slowdown storm has passed, at least.

After all, Chipotle's simple, tasty menu items won't break the bank, and the company takes pride in using high-quality, sustainable ingredients, giving it the kind of edge Whole Foods Market (Nasdaq: WFMI) has championed with its organic and natural food offerings.

When I took a look at Chipotle's fourth quarter in February, I believed investors who'd had a hankering for the stock were getting a second chance at more reasonable prices. (It was certainly a better-looking opportunity than back in October, when I feared it was overstuffed with optimism.) Indeed, it's still not too late -- Chipotle shares are down 13.5% over the past three months, yet the company's showing great signs of resilience. If you're hungry for some high-quality companies to invest in during these difficult times, Chipotle is a great stock to consider.

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Comments from our Foolish Readers

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  • On April 24, 2008, at 6:11 PM, woolibulli wrote: Report this Comment

    Seems like one of the Chipotle restaurants had a little bout with food poisoning. That usually does a temporary number on the stock price. I don't have the straight story in front of me, unfortunately.

  • On April 24, 2008, at 9:48 PM, TMFLomax wrote: Report this Comment

    Hi woolibulli,

    Thanks for the idea about the stock drop... Perhaps that's it (but just one store, wow, not that that is any consolation to the people it happened to, norovirus is no joke). A reader sent me this article that gives more info:

    http://www.ohio.com/lifestyle/18104499.html

    It seems like the company is trying to make amends for the situation, as well as reinforce policies for employees so it doesn't happen again, which of course IS important.

    Alyce

  • On April 25, 2008, at 8:51 PM, Borisbmx wrote: Report this Comment

    The *B* shares now sell at about 40x trailing EPS of $2.27 and this is drastically lower then the recent 75x -ish high point. Also this trailing 40x pe might be a PEG of 1.0x which would in thoery be a lowish

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