Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) hasn't sung investors a particularly happy tune. Though there's a lot of hope for the newly combined company, it will need every penny it can get from its $400 million of expected synergies, since the companies have collectively racked up more than $1 billion of debt, and both continue to sport bottom lines that are deep in the red. In short, it's a pretty scary picture.
On Motley Fool CAPS more than 4,500 stock-picking members have been following Sirius XM's drama and weighing in on the stock's prospects. Of that group, though, none has read the stock quite as well as former Top Fool TMFEldrehad. Eldrehad has given Sirius the thumbs-down on five separate occasions, was correct all five times, and has nabbed himself 122 points for his troubles.
TMFEldrehad is one of CAPS' All-Stars -- players with a rating of 80 or greater -- and he has managed an impressive stock-picking accuracy of more than 80%, while racking up nearly 7,000 points. Sirius hasn't been his only great call. Here's a look at a few of his other prescient picks:
|
Company
|
Date Picked
|
Call
|
Points
|
CAPS Rating
|
|
Activision Blizzard (Nasdaq: ATVI)
|
6/14/06
|
Outperform
|
127
|
*****
|
|
Walter Industries (NYSE: WLT)
|
11/2/06
|
Outperform
|
98
|
***
|
|
VeraSun Energy
|
10/13/08
|
Underperform
|
89
|
*
|
Data from CAPS.
So what is this investor looking at these days? Here are a few of his most recent calls on CAPS:
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Company
|
Date Picked
|
Call
|
CAPS Rating
|
|
First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR)
|
10/13/08
|
Underperform
|
**
|
|
Evergreen Solar (Nasdaq: ESLR)
|
10/13/08
|
Underperform
|
***
|
|
China Finance Online
|
10/13/08
|
Underperform
|
*
|
Data from CAPS.
While not all of these picks may pan out, they could be a good place to start further research. I decided to take a closer look at solar energy stocks.
Alternative? What alternative?
Avid followers of both the CAPS community and TMFEldrehad know that he has long been a skeptic of alternative energy stocks, and solar in particular. Way back in June 2006, he put his thumb down on Suntech Power (NYSE: STP) explaining:
The problem is economics. There is a huge infrastructure already in place to support energy generation from fossil fuels -- the sunk asset base is simply enormous. What this means for the solar, fuel cell, and other alternative energy players is that in order for them to be economically viable, is not only do they have to be competitive on a total cost basis, alternative energy companies' *total* costs have to be competitive with fossil fuel companies' *marginal* costs.
It appears his opinion hasn't changed much since then, as he's still bearish on Suntech along with Evergreen Solar, First Solar, Canadian Solar, and Trina Solar -- among others.
But for the veracity of Eldrehad's opposition to solar, he still finds himself among the minority on CAPS. Though First Solar and Evergreen Solar may carry unimpressive CAPS ratings, other solar players, such as Suntech -- a current Motley Fool Rule Breakers pick -- and Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE), carry perfect five-star ratings. One of the nearly 3,900 Suntech fans on CAPS is rosborneutah, who recently chimed in with:
[Suntech Power] is solidly entrenched in the world's largest industrial and consumer market (uhhh, China), and has committed to furthering growth in the US. While the current drop in oil prices may detract from the urgency of alternative energy solutions, the solar/wind/geothermal industry has caught momentum and will build over the next few years. A good investment, IMHO, that will … double the performance of the S&P 500
Many bullish CAPS members have also focused on the U.S. presidential election as a driver for solar. CAPS All-Star EcklandCapital gave Suntech a thumbs-up in late October and kept his pitch to one word, "Obama."
So what's your take on solar stocks? Will they blossom as solar goes more mainstream, or will solar get buried as oil prices fall? Get in the action by clicking over to CAPS; it's absolutely free, and it already has more than 120,000 stock pickers working together to find the best stocks out there.
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