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Great Investors Go It Alone

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If you've decided that investing is the route for you, a few basics will enhance your ability to take advantage of Mr. Market. Foremost among them: Do your own work.

There are many worthwhile resources available to investors, each providing readers with wonderful starting points. After all, you have to generate your beginning ideas somewhere. But these resources are just tools to help you get started. If you want to surpass the average investor, you'll have to start coming up with your own ideas.

It's all about you    
Different investors have different goals at different times. The Warren Buffett of today, who invests via Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A  ) (NYSE: BRK-B  ) in companies like Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS  ) , Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO  ) , and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC  ) , can't pursue the same investments he did back in the 1950s and '60s.

To fulfill your goals, remember that the best investment gems are usually those still undiscovered -- or better yet, ignored -- by the brains and media of Wall Street. No stock investment is 100% free of risk. But if you can find stocks whose obscurity weights the odds heavily in your favor, and then bet big, you'll maximize your potential gain and minimize your potential pitfalls.

Look at the bottom, not the top
The Wall Street crowd tends to focus on the Cinderella stocks of the day -- companies like Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS  ) or Citigroup (NYSE: C  ) that have recovered strongly from their March lows. Still, although many believe that these companies have put the worst behind them, buyers should heed Buffett's words: "You pay a high price for a cheery consensus." If anything happens to derail the recovery, it could spell disaster for investors who bought into these companies after they made their big rise. Just ask anyone who bought stock in Crocs at 10 times its current price.

The stocks most hotly pursued by analysts and the rest of the Wall Street herd usually enjoy the highest degrees of optimism. Coincidently, they also carry the highest levels of risk that you'll end up buying high and selling low.

By acting alone, you can focus on areas of the market currently unloved by the crowd, without any distracting influences. One of the key tenets of successful investing is being able to buy a stock at the maximum point of pessimism. If you're following the crowd, you'll rarely do so. Had he relied on consensus opinion, Buffett would have never bought American Express in the midst of the so-called salad oil scandal. As history proved, his upside outweighed the possible loss of capital many times over.

Don't forget your circle
Remember to invest only in situations that you completely understand. Unless you first understanding the underlying economics and potential risks, you could set yourself up for a costly mistake.

By understanding your investments cold, you are less likely to be guided by emotional tendencies. Fear won't drive you to sell a stock simply because the price has gone down by 20%, even when nothing has happened to the underlying fundamentals of the business. The herd often likes to equate price volatility with risk. By thinking for yourself, you can outsmart them -- and profit handsomely.

The Steve Jobs Betrayal
You may already know that in the final year of his life, Jobs revealed a stunning betrayal — and told his biographer, "I will spend my last dying breath... and every penny of Apple's $40 billion in the bank to right this wrong." What was it that made Jobs so irate — and why could it make a few in-the-know investors some major profits over the coming months and years?

Enter your email address below to find out what made Jobs so enraged!

Warren Buffett is buying stocks, and we know why. Find out in this article from Morgan Housel whether you should follow the Oracle or walk your own path.

The Fool owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway, which is a Motley Fool Inside Value recommendation and a Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendation. Berkshire Hathaway, American Express, and Coca-Cola are Motley Fool Inside Value recommendations. Coca-Cola is a Motley Fool Income Investor recommendation. Try any of our Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days.

This article, written by Sham Gad, was published Nov. 5, 2007. It has been updated by Dan Caplinger, who owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


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  • Report this Comment On September 24, 2009, at 9:47 AM, spokanimal wrote:

    Nice job with this piece although I have an issue with your Citi/LVS comment.

    As you say, it is essential to find unloved stocks, understand them completely and, I would add, invest in only a handful since it's impossible to intimately follow more than a few.

    Old fears die hard among analysts, however, and in spite of it's promise and the quality/location of it's assets, analysts are loathe to recommend Las Vegas Sands due to residual balance sheet fears so they choose Wynn in the sector instead.

    The reason analysts, in the aggregate, are historically, and statistically wrong more than they are right is because they have much more to lose by being wrong than they have to gain by being right. Therefore, they look for fundamentals that they can verify and use to minimize risk. In gaming, Wynn was higher priced but had a stronger balance sheet so, even though Sand's stock price got killed last winter and they have better Macau exposure in better locations (eg: Singapore), analysts went with sounder fundamentals (Wynn) and collectively lost out on a great turn-around story at Sands. Even today, Sands remains at 1/4 the price with far more than 1/4 the revenue and EPS potential for 2010, but analysts would still rather go with the bird in the hand.

    Spokanimal

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