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How Portfolio Diversification Can Save You From the Next Crash

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As the stock market sets new multiyear highs and many stocks are at or near all-time record levels, many investors are getting greedy. But prudent investors look at the recent optimism from a more balanced view, trying to figure out whether the strong advance in the market is sustainable. For them, the protection that portfolio diversification can provide may be what saves them from substantial losses whenever the next downturn strikes.

The basics of diversification
Many people think of having a diversified portfolio as meaning owning a lot of different stocks or funds. But much of the time, investors aren't nearly as diversified as they think they are. Especially among funds, you'll often find the same well-known big-company names prominently displayed on multiple top holdings lists, strongly suggesting that those funds will typically move in the same direction and therefore be useless in providing protection from downturns in those stocks.

Even if you don't own exactly the same stocks, that doesn't mean that you'll avoid the dangers of a concentrated set of investments. For instance, integrated oil company ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM  ) , refiner Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX  ) , and midstream pipeline MLP Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE: KMP  ) have very different focuses, with Exxon taking the broad view across the entire oil and gas field, while Phillips 66 earns its money primarily from refining crude oil into products like gasoline, diesel, and heating oil. Unlike Exxon or Phillips 66, Kinder Morgan's primary business isn't to produce various fuels but rather to deliver them to where they're needed. A portfolio with these three stocks might be slightly better diversified than just owning a single stock in this group, but all three are subject to many of the same factors and will therefore respond in similar fashion to some events that have broad implications for the entire energy sector.

The same is even true across industries in some cases. For instance, you might not think that fertilizer company Terra Nitrogen (NYSE: TNH  ) and electric utility Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK  ) would have anything in common. But both companies use natural gas, Duke increasingly to fuel its power plants and Terra as an input for its nitrogen-based fertilizers. As a result, a change in natural gas prices has an impact on both. They won't necessarily move in exactly the same way, but market-moving news on the natural gas front can push their stocks in the same direction.

How to get diversified
In order to have true diversification, you need to have investments whose movements aren't correlated. For instance, bonds have traditionally been a good counterbalance against stocks, as a booming stock market draws money out of bonds and sends their prices downward, whereas risk-averse investors fleeing stocks when markets fall tend to prefer the safe-harbor status that bonds have historically provided.

That's tougher to accomplish than you might think, because relationships among markets tend to change over time. For instance, international stocks used to give investors much different results than their U.S. counterparts, largely because economic conditions in individual countries differed greatly from nation to nation. With the economy having gotten increasingly global, however, correlations among those markets have gotten greater, and thus they've tended to move much more closely together in recent years -- especially in times of crisis.

Similarly, commodities were once seen as being independent of stocks. But some of the same factors that drive liquidity into the stock market also encourage commodity investing, and with the rise of exchange-traded funds that allow individual investors to take commodity positions easily, commodities have started moving more closely with stocks.

That's not to say that seeking portfolio diversification is a hopeless cause. What it does mean, though, is that you can't count on a particular strategy working forever. It takes constant diligence to make sure you have as much protection as you can find.

Stay smart
Whenever markets are doing well, it pays to take a look to make sure you won't give back all the hard-earned gains you've gotten. Making sure you're truly diversified is an important step toward protecting your portfolio.

Over the long haul, though, protecting against minor market downturns isn't as important. The best investing approach is to choose great companies and stick with them for the long term. In our free report "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich," we name stocks that could help you build long-term wealth and retire well, along with some winning wealth-building strategies that every investor should be aware of. Click here now to keep reading.

Fool contributor Dan Caplinger has no positions in the stocks mentioned above. You can follow him on Twitter @DanCaplinger. The Motley Fool owns shares of ExxonMobil. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Read/Post Comments (1) | Recommend This Article (2)

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Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On October 18, 2012, at 4:36 PM, mikedever wrote:

    Diversification is the one true "Free Lunch" of investing. But this article is correct in mentioning the difficulty in obtaining true portfolio diversification using just long positions in the traditional "asset classes." As a result, unfortunately, what is preached as portfolio diversification often is little more than gambling. I discuss this throughout my book "Jackass Investing: Don't do it. Profit from it." (#1 Amazon Kindle best-seller in the mutual fund category).

    My approach to diversification is quite different from conventional investment wisdom. One concept I think you'll find most interesting is in that I replace asset classes with "return drivers" and "trading strategies" (as I point out in the book, asset classes are simply long-only trading strategies that do not attempt to disaggregate their many separate return drivers). Once viewed in this fashion it is easy to create a truly diversified portfolio, rather than one constrained by the shackles of asset classes.

    I'm pleased to provide a complimentary link to the final chapter of the book, where I present the benefits (greater returns & less risk) of a truly diversified portfolio: http://bit.ly/vxDo6v.

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Dan Caplinger
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Dan Caplinger has been a contract writer for the Motley Fool since 2006. As the Fool's Director of Investment Planning, Dan oversees much of the personal-finance and investment-planning content published daily on Fool.com. With a background as an estate-planning attorney and independent financial consultant, Dan's articles are based on more than 20 years of experience from all angles of the financial world.

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10/23/2014 4:03 PM
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