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Great Call on Wal-Mart! What's Next?

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If there were a Cooperstown for the business world, I'm pretty sure we'd see a picture of a smiling Sam Walton hanging there. Not only is the extraordinary success of Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT  ) a good case study for those running businesses, but the massive payout that its stock has delivered is a good lesson for investors.

Of course, not only do we now live in a much different world than when Walton was setting up the first Wal-Mart stores, but we live in a much different world than just a few years ago. While this new world of less debt and more savings is bad for many businesses, it is exactly the kind of environment that brings customers in droves to Wal-Mart.

The members of The Motley Fool's CAPS community haven't totally overlooked Wal-Mart -- there are more than 5,300 outperform ratings on the stock -- but quite a few CAPS members think the stock's current price makes it less attractive than many other stocks out there.

The last laugh so far, though, has been had by the Wal-Mart bulls, and none more so than current Wal-Mart score leader ar97dra. This community member made a smart underperform pick on Wal-Mart in 2006, but then turned positive in the summer of 2007, racking up 50 points between then and the fall of last year, as the stock moved in the opposite direction as the slumping S&P 500.

ar97dra is one of CAPS' All-Stars -- players with a rating of 80 or greater -- and has managed an impressive stock-picking accuracy of 64% while racking up nearly 600 points. Wal-Mart isn't this player's only great call. Here's a look at a few of the other prescient picks:

Company

Date Picked

Call

Points

CAPS Rating

Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX  )

8/24/07

Outperform

177

**

Navteq

8/21/06

Outperform

150

NA

Interstate Bakery

3/13/07

Underperform

73

NA

Data from CAPS.
Navteq was acquired by Nokia (NYSE: NOK  ) and therefore no longer carries a CAPS rating. Interstate Bakery emerged from bankruptcy in February 2009 as a privately held company, and is no longer listed on the public markets.

So what is this investor looking at these days? Here are a few of the most recent calls on CAPS:

Company

Date Picked

Call

CAPS Rating

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ  )

6/1/09

Outperform

*****

MedcoHealth Solutions (NYSE: MHS  )

6/1/09

Outperform

****

Pharmaceutical Product Development (Nasdaq: PPDI  )

5/5/09

Outperform

*****

Data from CAPS.

While not all of these picks may pan out, they could be a good place to start further research. I decided to take a closer look at Johnson & Johnson.

Some health care for your portfolio
It seems pretty obvious from ar97dra's last three picks that this All-Star is looking to ride the health-care gravy train. And what a gravy train it's been. While the S&P 500 index has slumped more than 30% over the past year, the healthcare tag on CAPS has been the best-performing group of stocks, with a gain of more than 50%!

While the overall performance of that health-care grouping has had some major help from small biopharma stocks like Keryx Biopharmaceuticals, even large stocks like Johnson & Johnson and Novartis (NYSE: NVS  ) have played their part by not falling as much as the rest of the market.

But will the outperformance continue? Making statements about the entire collection of health-care stocks is tough because some of them have notched some pretty high valuations as investors fled to their perceived safety. Johnson & Johnson, however, is not among that group.

I gave J&J's stock a thumbs-up back in late January, as the company has a very stable and reliable base of business. The stock not only trades at a low-double-digit multiple, but it also pays a healthy dividend. It'd be silly to expect rocket-ship-type gains from this giant health-care player, but as the tortoise taught us, sometimes slow and steady wins the race.

CAPS member HanumanTMK recently saw many of the things that I did in J&J and joined the 11,574 other bulls on CAPS, pitching:

With a solid dividend, great debt to equity and a place in an industry with a solid future, why not go long. I think we're priced too low right now and can expect a good rebound, while the dividend adds the whip cream on top.

But here's the important question: What's your take on Johnson & Johnson? Will it show its strength in the face of recession? Get in the action by clicking over to CAPS. CAPS is absolutely free and already has more than135,000 stock pickers chipping in to find the best stocks out there.

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MedcoHealth Solutions, Netflix, and Pharmaceutical Product Development are Motley Fool Stock Advisor selections. Nokia and Wal-Mart are Motley Fool Inside Value selections. Johnson & Johnson is a Motley Fool Income Investor recommendation. Novartis is a Motley Fool Global Gains pick. Try any of these Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days. 

Fool contributor Matt Koppenheffer does not own shares of any of the companies mentioned, but he is keeping a close eye on some of these stocks through his CAPS portfolio. You can also connect with Matt on Twitter @KoppTheFool. The Fool's disclosure policy would like to work like a dog someday -- boy does that seem like the life.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On June 02, 2009, at 12:53 PM, madmilker wrote:

    People in America need to realize jus what got America in this shape…”cheap” yes so-call cheap items from a foreign land.

    quote*Wal-Mart firmly believes in local procurement. We recognize that by purchasing quality products, we can generate more job opportunities, support local manufacturing and boost economic development. Over 95% of the merchandise in our stores in China is sourced locally. We have established partnerships with nearly 20,000 suppliers in China. *end quote!

    Now! if there be 182 country’s making items for the world to buy and they have only 5% of the pie in China…duh! This company makes the nice people of China support their currency(yuan) by keeping it in their country working for the people there…. but with the “yuan” going up in value and the US dollar going down…all the foreign items that the American consumer buys thinking it is cheap has went up in price.

    People…its all about the currency and to keep a currency strong you got to keep it floating around the country you live in so it can work for you. For the past 12 years all them US dollars are being shipped overseas to a foreign bank and with the American worker not making anything for the foreigner to buy the “we the people” have to turn to the “second” largest employer in America(Uncle Sam) to sell “we the people” debt in order to get all them dollars back!

    50 years ago a foreigner would had given their left nut for a US dollar or a Hershey’s chocolate bar and today the same foreigner has got Uncle Sam and the American consumer by both all the while Hershey is moving the chocolate factory to Mexico. Wake up! America and think “MADE IN AMERICA.”

    quote*"Considering that there are over 30,000 ships at sea this morning," writes James Carlton, director of the Williams College-Mystic Seaport Maritime Studies Program, in an e-mail, "the total number of organisms and species in this global 'bioflow' on the morning your readers read your piece could be staggering - billions of individuals, and thousands of species."

    Indeed, scientists have long considered ballast water the primary way invasive aquatic organisms are introduced. From the zebra mussel's arrival in the Great Lakes, to an American jellyfish severely disrupting Black Sea fisheries, the potential costs of accidental introduction of a species to new homes can be tremendous. Aquatic invasives cost the US $9 billion yearly, according to estimates by David Pimentel, professor emeritus of ecology and evolutionary biology at Cornell University in Ithaca, N.Y. Zebra and quagga mussels (a cousin to the zebra) alone cost the $1 billion annually.*end quote!

    tat is $9 billion a year in hidden taxes to all Americans...

    cheap ain't chic and it cost America............jobs!

    quote*Now let us look at Wal-Mart again; you buy a product there, 6% goes to the employees, 10-18% is profit to the company, 25% goes to other costs and 50% goes to re-stock or the cost of goods sold. Of the 50% about 20-25% goes to China, a guess, but you get the point. Now then, how long will it take at 433 Billion dollars at year for China to have all of our money, leaving no money flow for us to circulate? At a 17 Trillion dollar economy less than 40-years minus the 1/6 they buy from us. Some say that if we keep putting money into our economy, it would take forever, but if we do not then eventually all the money flow will go. If China buys our debt then eventually they own us, no need to worry about a war, they are buying America, due in part to our own mismanaged trade, so whose fault is that? Not necessarily China, as they are doing what's in the best interests, and we should make sure that trade is not only free, but fair too.*end quote!

    http://www.worldthinktank.net/pdfs/TheFlowofTrade.pdf

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5/24/2012 4:00 PM
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