Foolish Forecast: It's Time to Wow Us, Boeing

Recs

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Someone remind me: What is it you're supposed to do in case of a crash landing? Duck and cover? Stop, drop, and roll? Whatever calisthenics you practice, I doubt they'll make Boeing's (NYSE: BA) Q3 earnings report (due out Wednesday) look any better. But at least you can be prepared.

What analysts say:

  • Buy, sell, or waffle? Thirty-five analysts keep Boeing on their radar, but don't think that makes it a "popular" stock. Only six of 'em rate Boeing a buy, while 25 say it's just a hold, and four think it's time to sell.
  • Revenue. Yet the numbers aren't all bad. Analysts predict 12.4% sales growth to $17.2 billion.
  • Earnings. They predict a reversal of last year's profits, for a $2.12-per-share loss.

What management says:
Give Boeing this much -- its press department is no wallflower. Hardly a week goes by without Boeing making news in one way or another. In recent weeks, we've seen the restart of last year's KC-X contest between Boeing and Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), congressional wrangling over the C-17 transport, and a series of delivery delays in high-profile airliners like the 747-8 freighter and the 787 Dreamliner.

What management does:
Yet from a numerical perspective, we also saw Boeing begin a turnaround in the second quarter. Across the board, gross, operating, and net margins, all of which had seemingly been in freefall, ticked up in Q2:

Margins

March 2008

June 2008

September 2008

December 2008

March 2009

June 2009

Gross

19.8%

19.2%

18.7%

17.3%

16.2%

16.6%

Operating

9.1%

8.7%

8.2%

6.1%

4.8%

5.3%

Net

6.6%

6.3%

5.8%

4.4%

3.4%

3.6%

All data courtesy of Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. Data reflects trailing-12-month performance for the quarters ended in the named months.

One Fool says:
Analysts' projected loss for Q3 should hit the eject button on that trend and halt Boeing stock's recent outperformance of even this hugely bullish market -- or will it?

After all, one side effect of Boeing's headline-making ways is that this company's woes are well-known. In contrast, if Boeing has any pleasant surprises in store for us Wednesday, those could easily move the stock. For example, management recently reaffirmed that it will put a 787 in the air by year-end.

If Boeing can stick to its schedule -- or even better, provide a more specific date for the 787 -- that would be brilliant news for customers like Delta (NYSE: DAL), Continental (NYSE: CAL), and AMR (NYSE: AMR). It would also reassure 787 suppliers like Honeywell (NYSE: HON) and United Technologies (NYSE: UTX) that orders are on the way.

And the loudest cheering of all? That would come from Boeing's long-suffering shareholders. So while it's a big "if" ... fingers crossed.

What do you think Boeing's headline announcement will be Wednesday? Will the company confirm a deadline for the 787 test flight? Reveal which 7-model it'll submit for the KC-X competition? Promise a (gasp!) profit in 2010? Scroll down and sound off.

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Fool contributor Rich Smith is one of those long-suffering shareholders -- he owns shares of Boeing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On October 19, 2009, at 6:59 PM, busterbuddy wrote:

    I owe Boeing. But I'd not count on Being Wowed. There are fundmental reasons why it is taking the time it is taking to build the 787. And that time is whatever time it takes. Best to understand that.

    Don't count on being WOWED.

  • Report this Comment On October 20, 2009, at 7:14 AM, praizinplace wrote:

    keep at fool! Your trash just motivates everyone to buy what you bad mouth. It's comical to watch, but I suppose you are doing a great service to investors in a sick, twisted, horribly inaccurate way! Boeing is and has been a buy for some time...just ask me, I bought when it was around $30...hmmm now lets see...what did BA close at yesterday? Nearly doubled my money within 1 year? Oh, that's right.

  • Report this Comment On October 22, 2009, at 11:55 AM, FBEditorial wrote:

    Run down of the Q3 earnings call here:

    http://www.fleetbuzzeditorial.com/2009/10/21/boeing3q-earnin...

    Of course, most one-trick blinded ponies forget that the 787 is not the be-all and end-all for Boeing.

    First flight will happen when it happens. Revenues may dip next year, but I've been one of the few to say that from the start, largely due to the 777 production cuts.

    The real moves will come in Q4 next year when 787's have to be delivered.

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