Dendreon's Secret Silver Lining

In the video below, Fool analysts Max Macaluso and David Williamson discuss Dendreon (NASDAQ: DNDN  ) and one overlooked opportunity for the company ahead.

Sales for Dendreon present both an opportunity and a risk, David says. Up until some 4th quarter numbers were released by the company, it seemed Dendreon had no hope of hitting profitability without reversing its previous sales trends.

The company's restructuring under CEO John Johnson has lowered the break-even point from $500 million to $400 million. But the company cannot cut its way to success, David says.

Fortunately, it does look like it's turning around sales. It's important to see sales continue to grow. In the short term, investors need to keep close watch on sales figures.

Long term, a bright spot for Dendreon is that it faces almost no generic drug risk for its Provenge prostate cancer treatment, David says. That's not a reason to buy the company; but it is a silver lining for investors, and a bonus if sales pick up.

Dendreon's run over the past four years witnessed sub-$5 share prices skyrocket to 10-bagger status before tumbling all the way back down below $5, as its revolutionary prostate cancer vaccine Provenge became a lightning rod of debate. But where does that leave investors -- other than a bit nauseous from the roller-coaster ride? Our own David Williamson answers this question, and many more, inside our brand new premium research report on Dendreon. Inside, he details every key issue facing the company, and outlines just how Dendreon intends to regain its former glory. The report also comes with a full year of analyst updates, so claim your copy of this exclusive report today by clicking here now.


Read/Post Comments (3) | Recommend This Article (6)

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  • Report this Comment On January 19, 2013, at 8:15 PM, lebronz wrote:

    Don't be wishy-washy Dave!

    Tell your 99% mass foolish audience to BUY DNDN (but only invest what you can afford to lose!

    Be the leader for the 99% trying hard to make a living and trying to understand how the 1% get so lucky in the stock market.

    You're correct in saying that there is no threat to Provenge from a bio-similar until April, 2022.

    Remember, 30,000 men in the U.S. are newly diagnosed with mCRPC or 7500 men per quarter.

    DnDn is currently treating about a 2012 average of 860 men per quarter.

    A small move to 1076 men treated per quarter is $100M. Thats only 4,304 men per year, which is still ONLY A FRACTION OF THE TREATABLE MARKET AND I'M NOT INCLUDING THE 60,000 MEN THAT ARE CURRENTLY LIVING WITH THE DISEASE (AS THESE MEN TYPICALLY LIVE 2 YEARS AFTER mCRPC DIAGNOSIS).

    Wallstreet hedgefunds/banks are managing the strategic direction of the next Celgene now (and the stock price w/ 45 million short) with CEO JJ & Co. That was something Dr. Gold had difficulty with, but CEO JJ understands how to underpromise & overdeliver and will cater to his top 10 largest shareholders;

    especially JP Morgan who will get 42.3 million shares of dndn if the stock price climbs above the $51 conversion price by Jan 2016.

    Wallstreet destroyed innocent peoples savings/401K during 2008/2009 credit crisis and the following economic recession. Investing in Dendreon could be their lottery ticket!

    Lets hope CEO Johnson and the wallstreet hedgefunds/banks read your articles on dndn (the same ones that drove the dndn stock price down via 45 million short) since August 2011 when short interest was only 14 million)) and have some level of empathy for the average investor trying to make a buck!

    DNDN should be a peoples stock; not only for hedgefunds/banks to own.

    Leb

  • Report this Comment On January 19, 2013, at 8:17 PM, lebronz wrote:

    Good vid btw ;)

    Leb

  • Report this Comment On January 19, 2013, at 8:34 PM, lebronz wrote:

    Oh, and David,

    You can focus on quarterly sales all you want.

    If you want to be forthright with your audience; tell them what YOY sales were for Provenge in your vids:

    2010: $46.1M

    2011: $216M

    2012: $322M

    Hows that for sales growth? Just because wallstreet analysts set expectations high (along with Dr. Gold) doesn't mean there wasnt' significant year over year growth. Trends are your friend.!

    What are your guesses for YOY sales growth given the population of newly diagnosed patients each year (30K) and those living with the disease (60K) during years:

    2013

    2014

    2015

    2016

    2017

    2018

    2019

    2020

    2021

    2022

    And remember, unfortunately, the mCRPC statistics climb because of the baby boomer gen

    Leb

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