Netflix (NFLX 1.74%) has an important first-quarter report coming up. An early rise in 2012 was undone by seasonal weakness over the summer, and soft guidance in that year's April report triggered that plunge.

What's different this time? What will it take to keep Netflix shares north of a 75% year-to-date rise -- and should investors even root for that?

In this video, Fool contributor Anders Bylund explains what will move Netflix stock on Monday, perhaps opening a juicy buy-in window.