$90 Billion Says Apple Is Cheap

iPhone 5c. Source: Apple.

It feels like years since Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) has had a really solid earnings report. Apple has been dogged by investor pessimism for what feels like an eternity, but is realistically about 18 months. Well, the Mac maker just showed that it can still put up strong results with the best of them. We've got a lot to cover.

Let's get the pesky headline figures out of the way. Revenue came in at $45.6 billion, which turned into $10.2 billion in net income. Thanks in part to the highly accretive buyback program currently being executed, we're talking about $11.62 per share in profit. 

Bring it home, iPhone
The real star of the show was iPhone unit sales. Apple sold 43.7 million iPhones during the quarter, which is an utter blowout. The Street would have been perfectly happy with just 38 million iPhones. The China Mobile partnership is already starting to pay off, but there was plenty of iPhone strength beyond the world's largest carrier.

The iPhone outperformance was broad-based, but the iPhone 4s is faring quite well in emerging markets. That's important because prepaid markets have historically been tougher for Apple to crack with its premium gadgets, but it still sells the 3-year-old 4s at lower price points.

It's also worth noting that the majority of iPhone buyers in the mid-range are new to the platform. According to Tim Cook, 85% of 4s buyers and 69% of 5c buyers are first-time iPhone buyers, and it's common knowledge that Apple enjoys the highest customer loyalty in the industry. Furthermore, over 60% of those customers were switching from Android.

Not so bad, iPad
iPad sales came in admittedly light relative to expectations at 16.4 million. In fact, this is only the second time in the iPad's history that it posted a year-over-year decline in unit sales. Tim Cook acknowledged this and attributed it primarily to changes in channel inventory. Last year, iPad channel inventory was significantly increased, but this year it decreased.

Also, iPad mini supply was constrained when it first launched in 2012, and many of those sales were pushed out into the March quarter of 2013. The 2013 iPad launch had a better supply situation, so many of those sales were already recognized in the December quarter. On a sell-through basis, iPad sales were only down 3%, which is more approachable than the reported 16% decline on a sell-in basis.

Unsurprisingly, iPod unit sales were absolutely decimated, falling 51% to just 2.8 million. The iPod has long been in decline, and now comprises just 1.6% of trailing-12-month revenue. Those recent rumors that no iPod updates are coming this year are starting to get some legs, and those same rumors say that the iWatch could effectively replace the iPod lineup.

Biggering and biggering
Gross margin also enjoyed a very nice sequential uptick to 39.3%. That's a very healthy improvement coming off the holiday quarter, especially since Apple (among many other companies) typically loses operating leverage as revenue contracts seasonally. Yet, Apple just posted margin expansion on a smaller top line.

Source: SEC filings. Fiscal quarters shown.

Incoming CFO Luca Maestri attributed this to better-than-expected costs and improved product mix. That iPhone beat also helped too, since iPhones are among Apple's most profitable products.

Throughout 2013, investors fretted about Apple's declining margins, which were falling from "incredible" to just plain "great." Margins have not only stabilized, but are now trending higher after overcoming some of the deferral impacts from giving away free stuff.

Apple needs more cash?
Not long ago, I figured that Apple would soon need more domestic cash. After Cook disclosed a $14 billion repurchase program implemented following last quarter's drop, Apple's domestic coffers would be running relatively thin compared to its normal levels. Indeed, stateside dollars were effectively just cut in half sequentially.

Source: SEC filings. Fiscal quarters shown.

To that end, Maestri confirmed that Apple would in fact be tapping the debt markets again in the near future. The amount will be "similar" to the $17 billion that Apple issued last year. Of course, the main reason why Apple will need more domestic cash is because it is further boosting its capital return program by an additional $30 billion.

Apple gives more cash
The new program tops out at $130 billion, and is still expected to be completed by the end of 2015. The share repurchase authorization component increases from $60 billion to $90 billion. Through March, Apple had already completed 75% of the $60 billion authorization with seven quarters to go (Apple repurchased a mind-boggling $18 billion in stock during this quarter alone), so the company had to increase the total since management still believes Apple shares are undervalued at current prices. On top of that, the dividend payout will jump by 8% to $3.29. 

Some investors have been asking for an Apple stock split, and they just got their wish. Apple will be doing a 7-1 split in June. Based on current prices, that will bring the share price down to around $80. While stock splits are mathematical nonevents, they do have some practical implications.

First, the lower price makes Apple shares more accessible to individual investors, and that perceived affordability could broaden the investor base. Second, the whole discussion of Apple becoming a Dow component can now resume in full force. Historically, Apple's high share price has kept it out of the price-weighted index, since it would disproportionately affect the Dow's price swings. Now, Apple's possible inclusion in the Dow is back on the table. If added, index funds will all be obligated to buy in.

$90 billion says Apple is cheap
Overall, this was one of the best earnings reports that Apple has released in recent memory. The soft spots weren't that bad (and were easily explainable), and the strong parts will reinforce the business for years to come. Apple's hyper-growth days may be over considering the size of its current revenue base ... but Apple has been priced for value for years.

Tim Cook still thinks Apple is undervalued (and is putting $90 billion behind that notion). Do you?

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Read/Post Comments (16) | Recommend This Article (37)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On April 24, 2014, at 1:51 PM, CharlesThe3rd wrote:

    Apple is trash, but thier gimicky marketing paid off. First to 64 bit. Blah. Lame.

  • Report this Comment On April 24, 2014, at 5:18 PM, TheRealRacc wrote:

    For AAPL, it really is all about marketing. Competition has caught up to their devices and ecosystem. But still, people don't mind filling the AAPL coffers with their (possibly not-so) hard-earned money.

    On Bloomberg radio yesterday, we already have pundits talking of the $1 trillion market cap. Can someone please, in real terms, explain how this is possible? All we need to do is get each person on the planet to donate $1.14 to AAPL. Whose with me?

  • Report this Comment On April 24, 2014, at 5:19 PM, TheRealRacc wrote:

    Or $71. If investing were as easy as math...

  • Report this Comment On April 24, 2014, at 5:27 PM, lenglish2 wrote:

    This article, and another I read, mention the dividend increase but don't say how the split will affect that. Will they still pay $3.29/share after the split?

  • Report this Comment On April 24, 2014, at 7:10 PM, BarrySta wrote:

    @lenglish2, it's one thing to wonder if the dividend will return the same percentage as today's, but if they paid the same dollar-amount dividend after the split, it would be yield 16%! Um, I don't think so.

  • Report this Comment On April 24, 2014, at 9:36 PM, RipRagge wrote:

    @lenglish2 – The dividend should be adjusted for the split. $3.29 split seven ways is about $0.47 per share.

    @All you folks trashing Apple, thank you. I'm planning to add a few shares before the split. Your brand of stupidity helps keep the price down. I've been buying AAPL since 1999, and you guys have been a great help to me.

  • Report this Comment On April 24, 2014, at 9:38 PM, chrischamb1 wrote:

    I've just gotta love you morons who continue to bash Apple and try to predict it's ultimate doom like a bunch of amateur Nostradamus's!! Keep shorting Apple and keep trying to talk-up Samsucks and see how that works out for you.....

  • Report this Comment On April 24, 2014, at 9:53 PM, dbtheonly wrote:

    $560 ($567.77 close) divided by 7 gets us the $80.

    Traditionally the dividend is split as well so the 7 shares combined will keep the same dividend as the pre-split.

  • Report this Comment On April 24, 2014, at 10:54 PM, DukeMontrose wrote:

    This superb presentation persuades this fool to submit an unusual recommendation. A SWITCH from AMZN - recent price $338 into AAPL.- $568.

    Switch recommendations earned this fool a partnership in one of those rule-breaking investment boutique - an enduring concept of marketing investment ideas - eons ago.

    Our foolish customers told us that for every 100 recos they get only 3 sell recos - and just a single SWITCH. (Do we have the start of foolish fun here?)

    My most recent previous reco, some 3 years ago = a SWITCH from RIMM to SDRL. Get 3 shares of SDRL for 1 share of RIMM. Both high tech, SDRL barely known, RIMM the darling of Wall Street.

    When well over $100, iRIMM has acquired a ridiculous PER = not as ridiculous as AMZN's is now.

    The fashionista gurus were horrified. But sooner than later = I expected later than sooner = SUDDENLY .....RIMM swooned..

    Not even a name change to the more sexy BlackBerry saved it from falling into the single digits - to this day in languishes below $10.

    Please stay tuned as I plan to report foolish fallow ups on this trade, during the rest of this year + beyond.

  • Report this Comment On April 24, 2014, at 10:58 PM, DukeMontrose wrote:

    As a PS to my previous note =

    This fool's SWITCH reco above has the additional advantage of side stepping the dilemma of TIMING AMZN's inevitable swoon = (from above the moon into the stratosphere?)

  • Report this Comment On April 24, 2014, at 11:06 PM, Goddessofmusic wrote:

    Those who continue to diss Apple have obviously never owned Apple/Mac products. Onward and upward. (22-year loyal customer and member of a happy Apple Family)

  • Report this Comment On April 24, 2014, at 11:06 PM, Goddessofmusic wrote:

    P.S. Buying Apple stock has been my best investment!

  • Report this Comment On April 25, 2014, at 12:41 AM, rdadler wrote:

    Buying Apple stock in 2005 at $37 was one of my best investments ever! No only will my profits provide me with amazing free Apple products for a few lifetimes but a few nice sports cars as well.

    Both are amazing to drive and those who criticize the Apple ecosystem have clearly not used their products...

    Even my 80 year old father who I convinced a few months ago to change his dying PC for a Mac is now finally comfortable with technology! He takes free classes at the Apple store and this week bought himself an iPhone 5s and an iPad as well!

  • Report this Comment On April 25, 2014, at 8:12 AM, ellaerdos wrote:

    I'm w/RipRagge. A big thank you to the folks that keep trashing Apple, Every time you do and the price goes down I buy a few shares.

    .7)

  • Report this Comment On April 26, 2014, at 8:40 AM, cmalek wrote:

    Will someone please explain to me the logic of buying shares back and then splitting the stock 7-1??? Besides making the stock more accessible.

    Of course, after the split EPS is not going to be a lofty $11.62 but a measly $1.66.

  • Report this Comment On July 13, 2014, at 1:44 AM, chrisdesousa wrote:

    cmalek,

    although EPS will "decrease" ... the company did not change in value. It's still the same company post-split.

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