Dendreon: Cash Out or Keep Riding Up?

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Dendreon (Nasdaq: DNDN) shares closed Friday at $26.08. The last time they closed that high was, well, never. It wasn't April 2007 when Provenge was last up for approval at the Food and Drug Administration. Nor was it way back in September 2000, a few months after the company came public. Nope, last Friday was the company's highest close. And now, from the closing price of $2.61 back on March 6, almost exactly the recent low for the broader market, the stock has risen 899%.

The question is, what to do now?

Last week, we published two articles presenting conflicting views. One Fool writer, Daniel Harrison, with memories of the last time Provenge approval was a "sure thing" running through his mind, thought that now would be an excellent time to lock in those huge gains. The other Fool writer, Brian Orelli, believes the company could be worth a lot more than it is today, assuming Provenge is approved sometime next year.

What you as a biotech investor must decide is which of those two writers is right and why. Ignoring the hype (and the hope) that Provenge has, what is your honest assessment of the prospects for Dendreon? What are the chances that Provenge will be approved by the FDA? If that happens, what might sales and earnings look like a couple of years down the line and how would the stock price respond? If FDA approval does not happen, what would the stock price look like? (I would guess ugly.)

Biotech investors can be just as emotional as those who invested during the dot-com bubble when people made and lost fortunes. But, like biotech, only a few companies, such as Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN), survived to be decent longer-term investments. Amgen (Nasdaq: AMGN) comes to mind as a biotech example.

Getting back to emotions, my own father died of prostate cancer (as many others have) and I am rooting as hard as I can for Provenge's success. But that alone should not make an investment thesis. I've learned the hard way that investing because of a great story can lead to losing a lot of money. Thus, my own medically related investments are more along the lines of Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) rather than drug developer Exelixis (Nasdaq: EXEL) or Dendreon.

But that's me. Today, we want to hear from you. Let us know what you think should be done today with an investment in Dendreon. Please, pick one of the choices below, and then add a comment explaining your choice.