Problems with the efficient frontier
The efficient frontier is built on several assumptions, which means it may not reflect the reality of the situation.
First of all, expected returns, standard deviations, and asset class correlations are typically based on historical data. There’s no guarantee that the future will look like the past. In fact, it very likely won’t look exactly the same.
Second, the efficient frontier calculation assumes security returns follow a normal distribution, where nearly all returns fall within three standard deviations of the mean. In fact, some asset classes may produce returns much further away from the mean in some periods.
The efficient frontier should be considered more of a guide than a set-in-stone fact for investors to follow.