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Invitation Homes Inc. (INVH 0.49%)
Q3Â 2020 Earnings Call
Oct 29, 2020, 11:00 a.m. ET
Contents:
- Prepared Remarks
- Questions and Answers
- Call Participants
Prepared Remarks:
Operator
Greetings, and welcome to the Invitation Homes Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Greg Van Winkle, Vice President of Corporate Strategy, Capital Markets and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Greg Van Winkle -- Investor Relations
Thank you. Good morning, and thank you for joining us for our Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. On today's call from Invitation Homes are Dallas Tanner, President and Chief Executive Officer; Ernie Freedman, Chief Financial Officer; and Charles Young, Chief Operating Officer. I'd like to point everyone to our third quarter 2020 earnings press release and supplemental information which we may reference on today's call.
This document can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website at www.invh.com. I'd also like to inform you that certain statements made during this call may include forward-looking statements relating to the future performance of our business, financial results, liquidity and capital resources and other nonhistorical statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual outcomes or results to differ materially from those indicated in any such statements. We described some of these risks and uncertainties in our 2019 annual report on Form 10-K, our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2020, and other filings we make with the SEC from time to time. Invitation Homes does not update forward-looking statements and expressly disclaims any obligation to do so. During this call, we may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. You can find additional information regarding these non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations of these measures to the most comparable GAAP measures, in our earnings release and supplemental information, which are available on the Investor Relations section of our website.
I'll now turn the call over to our President and Chief Executive Officer, Dallas Tanner.
Dallas B. Tanner -- President And Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Greg. We're thrilled to report yet another quarter of outstanding execution in a time when the need for high-quality, single-family rental housing is greater than ever. I'm so proud of our team for consistently meeting that demand with unparalleled resident service, which is also translating to strong results for our shareholders. There are three points I want to emphasize in my remarks today. The first is that we continued to perform extremely well during COVID, validating the strength and the stability of our business. The second is that we are more bullish than ever about the long term due to the fundamental tailwinds for our sector and Invitation Homes' unique advantages.
The third is that because of our favorable position, we're staying on offense with respect to external growth. Leveraging the power of our platform, we're having great success in finding acquisitions with compelling expected returns that also add to our economies of scale. We are opportunistically increasing our acquisition pace, and we've diversified our capital sources with the joint venture to enhance and ensure our ability to remain opportunistic over a multiyear period. I'll now elaborate on our results that continue to strengthen through the pandemic. Same-store occupancy set another record high of 97.8% in the third quarter, up 190 basis points year-over-year and 30 basis points from last quarter. Rent growth has also accelerated, indicative of the fundamental strength in our markets. New lease rate growth of 5.5% in the quarter was 130 basis points better than last year and up 280 basis points from last quarter. On this higher base of potential rents, we continued to collect through September at a rate of 98% of our historical average collection rates. The unique differentiators of our business also continue to be a benefit to expenses. As a result, we were able to deliver 3.6% same-store NOI growth in a period that continues to prove challenging for the broader economy and real estate sector. More importantly, we've continued to be a port in the storm for our residents, delivering exceptional service and genuine care that is resulting in an all-time high resident satisfaction scores. The self-show technology and virtual experience that we've been utilizing for years is allowing prospective residents to feel safe throughout the leasing process.
The freestanding nature of our assets is also allowing us to safely serve residents and maintain homes with some tweaks to our protocols for extra safety. With these safety measures in place, we have now completely worked through our backlog of work orders that had previously been deferred during the springtime. To say that our associates have been exceptional in their care for residents would be an understatement. I could not be prouder of our associates' hard work and commitment under the circumstances, and we recently recognized their effort with a special bonus for all our front-line workers and nonexecutives in our corporate and field offices. We also continue to provide COVID-specific benefits and flexibility to associates designed to promote their health and also well-being. We believe the past several quarters have battle-tested and demonstrated the durability of our business. And looking ahead, we continue to see a bright future. The millennial generation is only beginning to reach our average resident age of 39 years. And survey data indicates that COVID may be accelerating a shift in demand for denser urban housing to single-family alternatives. With limited supply of single-family homes available, we believe our sector is positioned to be a key part of housing solutions for years to come. Furthermore, we think the ease and flexibility of leasing from a professional property manager makes the value proposition even more compelling for institutional single-family rental operators, who today own less than 2% of the overall single-family rental home market.
With these tailwinds at our back, we ramped up acquisition activity in the third quarter and exceeded our expectations by deploying $175 million. The initial underwritten yield on these homes is consistent with where we were acquiring pre-COVID at 5.5% cap rates. After quarter end, we also closed a bulk acquisition in Dallas for $59 million at a 5.7% NOI cap rate on in-place rents which we see upside to as we bring these homes on to our platform. Put simply, we feel very strongly that it continues to be a great time to invest in single-family rental homes, especially with our ability to leverage our proprietary AcquisitionIQ technology and local investment teams' relationships and experience in buying across multiple channels. To diversify our capital sources in pursuit of this external growth opportunity, we have formed a joint venture with a like-minded partner that is expected to provide over $1 billion of additional dry powder for the next couple of years. This adds to the over $500 million of cash on our own balance sheet in addition to strong operating cash flow which we can use to grow our wholly owned portfolio. With these multiple capital sources available to fund our growth, we'll continue to have the opportunity to bring down our overall leverage at the same time we achieve our external growth goals. In seeking joint venture capital, our industry-leading scale, technology and experience as an operator positioned us well against the backdrop of substantial private investor demand wanting to enter the single-family rental space. We are thrilled to have partnered with a highly accomplished investor in a structure that makes great sense for our business.
This structure allows for us to invest and manage properties for the JV identically to the way we invest and operate our wholly owned portfolio. Acquisitions will be sourced by our investment team on an entity-blind basis and allocate it automatically between Invitation Homes and the JV in accordance with predetermined ratios that enable both entities to simultaneously achieve their capital deployment goals. In addition, our ROFO structure makes the JV a potential pipeline for future on-balance sheet external growth when the JV reaches the end of its anticipated 5- to 8-year life. Along the way, we will earn asset management and property management fees, expected to be well in excess of any incremental costs. In closing, we are excited about what the future holds for Invitation Homes. We believe the single-family rental sector is favorably positioned within the housing market relative to other types of residential real estate. Within our uniquely positioned industry, we are differentiated from peers by three key advantages. The first is location of our homes, infill neighborhoods within high-growth markets where the supply and demand are most in our favor.
The second is our scale and market density with nearly 5,000 homes per market. The third is our local expertise and on-the-ground teams in our markets that enable us to better control the quality of our assets and the overall resident experience. We are committed to further enhancing that resident's experience in the years ahead as we grow, and we thank you for your support as we pursue our mission.
I'll now turn it over to Charles Young, our Chief Operating Officer.
Charles D. Young -- Executive Vice President And Chief Operating Officer
Thank you, Dallas. Let me reiterate our appreciation for our teams who are out there every day delivering genuine care to our residents. Their efforts have led to outstanding outcomes for both our residents and our shareholders for years. But the difference they make has shined even brighter during the pandemic. This quarter was no different. We're continuing to see the high-quality homes and genuine care we deliver contribute to residents moving in sooner and staying longer. Specifically, in the third quarter, days to reresident improved 14 days year-over-year to 26 days, and turnover fell 16% year-over-year from 8.7% to 7.3%. This drove 190 basis points year-over-year increase in occupancy to 97.8% with September marking the 11th straight month of sequential occupancy increases. At the same time, we are executing well to capture market rents. New lease rent growth, which we believe is most indicative of where fundamentals are today, accelerated to 5.5% in the third quarter, up 130 basis points year-over-year. Furthermore, new lease rent growth increased each month during the quarter. Renewal rents increased 3.3% in the third quarter, bringing same-store blended rent growth for the quarter to 4%. Same-store core revenues grew 2.4% year-over-year in the quarter, 40 basis points higher than our second quarter performance. As a result of the aforementioned occupancy increase and a 3.2% increase in average rental rate, gross rental revenues increased 5.3% year-over-year. As expected, this increase was partially offset by two factors related to COVID-19. The first was an increase in bad debt from 0.4% of gross rental income in the third quarter of 2019 to 2.1% in the third quarter of 2020, which had a 175 basis point impact on same-store core revenue growth in the quarter. The second was a significant decrease in other property income, which had a 94 basis point impact on same-store core revenue growth in the quarter, primarily attributable to our nonenforcement of late fees. Same-store core expenses increased 0.4% year-over-year. Net of resident recovery, same-store controllable expenses decreased 4.7% due primarily to lower resident turnover. Fixed expenses in the quarter increased 3.9%, primarily due to high -- higher property taxes.
This resulted in a 3.6% year-over-year increase in same-store NOI. Next, I'll cover revenue collections, which remain very healthy, even as we continue to offer flexible payment options to our residents in need. In each month of the third quarter, our cash collections totaled 97% of monthly billings compared to a pre-COVID average of 99%. We believe the strength of our revenue collections is a testament to the high quality and stability of our resident base. To put some context around that, residents moving in over the last 12 months had an average income of nearly $110,000 across approximately two wage owners on average, covering rent by 4.8 times. As we move forward, similar to the last many months, we will remain nimble and leverage our local market presence to adapt quickly to change as we focus on providing high-quality housing and service to our residents. That focus on flexibility and genuine care has served us well through the pandemic thus far, and I'm confident that it will continue to result in the best possible outcomes for our residents and shareholders as we navigate the road ahead. With that, I'll turn it over to Ernie Freedman, our Chief Financial Officer.
Ernest M. Freedman -- Executive Vice President And Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Charles. Today, I will discuss the following topics: balance sheet and liquidity, investment activity in the third quarter, financial results for the third quarter and thoughts concerning the fourth quarter of 2020. With respect to liquidity, we had almost $1.6 billion of unrestricted cash and revolver capacity as of September 30. We have no debt reaching final maturity before 2022, and over half of our assets are unencumbered. Looking ahead, we remain committed to reducing leverage. The $560 million of cash on our balance sheet, along with expected operating cash flow and disposition proceeds, gives us significant runway to continue funding acquisitions without any additional debt. In the third quarter, we used cash from our June equity raise to acquire 544 homes for $175 million. We also sold 403 homes that did not fit with our long-term strategy for gross proceeds of $115 million. As things stand today, with the compelling external growth opportunity we are seeing in our markets, we plan to remain a net acquirer for the balance of 2020 and into 2021. Next, I'll cover our financial results for the third quarter. Core FFO and AFFO per share for the third quarter increased 1.9% and 5.8% year-over-year to $0.30 and $0.24, respectively. These results were driven primarily by higher same-store NOI and lower recurring capex. As a reminder, the impact of bad debt is included in both our core FFO and AFFO results. We reserve all receivables aged greater than 30 days as security deposits from residents upon moving typically cover receivables balances aged less than 30 days. Under our bad debt policy, charges are considered due based on the terms of the original lease with past due amounts in excess of security deposits not recognized as revenue, even if a payment plan is in place with the resident. I'll now provide some thoughts on the fourth quarter of 2020. As Dallas mentioned, we feel great about the way our business is positioned for both the near- and long-term future. That said, pinpointing future results remains difficult due to uncertainty concerning the regulatory landscape and how the pandemic may continue to evolve. With two months left in 2020 though, I will provide some thoughts about how we are thinking about the conclusion of the year. First, let me discuss items impacting revenue. With strong demand continuing, we expect occupancy and leasing spreads in the fourth quarter to be as good or better than in the third quarter. Rent collections remain a source of uncertainty, but have been fairly steady in recent months at approximately 97% of billings. If collections were to continue at that same rate, we would expect bad debt to remain in the two s as a percentage of gross rental income. Finally, we expect nonenforcement of late fees to continue to be a drag on revenue growth in the fourth quarter. In each of the second and third quarters, late fee income fell by approximately $3 million year-over-year. As we continue to provide flexibility to residents, we would expect late fees to decline similarly year-over-year in the fourth quarter. With respect to expenses, cost to maintain typically decreases seasonally from the third quarter to the fourth quarter. We'd expect a sequential decline in cost to maintain in the fourth quarter 2020 as well, but we may not see as large of a seasonal decrease as in typical years because turnover was already so low in the third quarter of 2020. That said, turnover should be beneficial from a year-over-year perspective. Taking a step back, 2020 is shaping up to be a year to be proud of with respect to both our positive impact on residents and the financial results we are producing amid challenging circumstances in the world around us. Resident satisfaction scores are at an all-time high, and we've generated year-to-date AFFO growth of 6.8% through the third quarter, in sharp contrast to many others in the real estate sector. We believe this is a result not only of the unique fundamentals of the single-family rental industry but also of our differentiated locations, scale and local expertise. With those advantages on our side, we are focused on remaining nimble to continue delivering great outcomes for our residents, communities and shareholders in our path forward. With that, let's open up the line for Q&A.
Questions and Answers:
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Nick Joseph from Citi.
Nicholas Gregory Joseph -- Citigroup Inc. -- Analyst
Thanks. Dallas, clearly, the transaction market is attracting a lot of capital. So if you think about the amount of capital that's chasing deals, both from an institutional perspective but also from end users, how do you think that ultimately impacts going-in cap rates? And would you expect to see some compression there going forward?
Dallas B. Tanner -- President And Chief Executive Officer, Director
We've asked ourselves the same question, Nick, in terms of how to think about expectations through the end of the year and also early next. What we've kind of found has kind of been the case for the last couple of years, is that we've been able to, in that sweet spot, call it, mid-5s from a going-in stabilized NOI cap rate, that's been pretty achievable. Now you've certainly seen some ebb and flow, and this year has been a little bit different than normal given that the transaction volume from the end user is going much further into the year than normal. But we keep thinking we might need to underwrite maybe a little bit of some expectations around cap rate compression, but they haven't. And in large part, it's because rate on the leasing side is following pari passu with the home price appreciation that we're seeing in the marketplace. So overall, it still feels really healthy. We'll see somewhere around six million transactions in the U.S. this year, which is in line with what expectations were going into the beginning of the year. And certainly, the months of supply is something we're going to keep our eye on because it is pretty low right now, given where we are at this point in the year.
Nicholas Gregory Joseph -- Citigroup Inc. -- Analyst
Thanks, and then maybe just the flip side of that disposition. You've continued to sell assets. Obviously, it sounds like external growth is focused, but how should we think about disposition activity over the next few quarters?
Dallas B. Tanner -- President And Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. We would expect to still be culling pieces and parts of the portfolio that don't line up, and we'll do that. That's ordinary course for us. We've been doing that for eight years. We have said and signaled in the past that we think dispositions ultimately will be a little bit lower than where we've been traditionally. And I'd expect that to be the case. The good news is, is that when we do go out and try to sell, given the low supply, we're getting excellent pricing. And whether that's selling something vacant or small portfolios that we might sell to a smaller operator, pricing there has been excellent and multiple offers and all the -- everything you'd want to see from a selling perspective.
Nicholas Gregory Joseph -- Citigroup Inc. -- Analyst
So is the trailing, call it, $125 million a quarter a good run rate, at least in the near term?
Ernest M. Freedman -- Executive Vice President And Chief Financial Officer
Yes. Nick, this is Ernie. I think over the next period of time, you can see us kind of land in the $50 million to $100 million range each quarter going forward, which would be about 1% to 1.5%, maybe 2% of our portfolio. That feels like for the foreseeable future where we'll be.
Nicholas Gregory Joseph -- Citigroup Inc. -- Analyst
Thank you very much.
Operator
The next question comes from Alua Askarbek from Bank of America.
Alua Noyan Askarbek -- BofA Merrill Lynch -- Analyst
Thanks for taking my questions. So just to start off, looking at the renewal rates, it looks like they dropped 20 basis points from 2Q. Is it because renters are negotiating their leases more? Or is this just leases that became effective after being signed earlier in the pandemic?
Charles D. Young -- Executive Vice President And Chief Operating Officer
Yes. Thanks for the question. This is Charles. When you think about renewal growth, a lot of it is the fact that we price renewals about 90 days before expiration. And so you're going out -- when the pandemic hit in March, you're going out at rates that we were being very cautious as the pandemic unfolded. And we gave our teams a little bit more room to negotiate. And so as you look at how it's transpired, we hit our low point on the renewal side in June and July when you think about where we were 90 days prior to that. But what's been great is we've gone out at a little higher rates, and we've had our teams negotiate since then a little tighter on that as to the actual. And you've seen each month since then, we're accelerating on renewal growth. And those trends continue today. So I think some of it is just us being thoughtful, trying to solve for occupancy, position of power. And then on the flip side, when we do flip because we're in a strong occupancy position, the new lease growth is -- has been really strong. So we think renewals will continue to get better as things stabilize.
Alua Noyan Askarbek -- BofA Merrill Lynch -- Analyst
Got it. And where are renewals going out right now for November and December, if you guys can share that?
Charles D. Young -- Executive Vice President And Chief Operating Officer
Yes, no problem. So November, December, we're going out in the kind of low 5s to mid-5s. And then we're just starting to look at January, and we're actually going out to mid- to high 5s. So like I said, we're going out a bit more aggressive to capture market rents, and then we're asking our teams to continue to work with folks, but also kind of tighten that negotiation band up. We've had a little bit more spread than normal because of the pandemic.
Alua Noyan Askarbek -- BofA Merrill Lynch -- Analyst
Great. Thank you.
Operator
The next question comes from Douglas Harter from Credit Suisse.
Douglas Michael Harter -- Credit Suisse AG -- Analyst
Thanks. I guess, as you layer in the JV capital to be deployed, how should we think about the pace of acquisitions in the coming quarters?
Ernest M. Freedman -- Executive Vice President And Chief Financial Officer
Yes, Doug, this is Ernie. I think we see a real opportunity, especially coming off of how we did in the third quarter. And I'll turn it over to Dallas, but for a second here just give you a little sense for how October shaped out. We talked about in the earnings release, a bulk acquisition, but that was just a portion of what we did in October. I think our goal as we go into next year is roughly a 50-50 split between balance sheet activity and JV activity. And we're seeing the opportunity to potentially ramp up our overall acquisition pace and, again, roughly half would go in the JV, half will go on the balance sheet. But Dallas, why don't you give a quick highlight on October, so folks can get a sense for -- it may be a one-off month, but it's been a very strong month for us in October?
Dallas B. Tanner -- President And Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. And just for clarity, remember, we took off about three months of buying activity in the pandemic. So when we turned things back on toward the middle end of June, you obviously have a little bit of a lag between when you start to close properties. And we've historically said we feel pretty comfortable between that $200 million and $250 million a quarter. But to Ernie's point, in October, we're likely to close about $150 million worth of new property. So our fourth quarter could be a little bit bigger. And then I would say that as we monitor the path of progress going forward, what supply looks and feels like, there's certainly an ability to outperform that $250 million a quarter if we see the opportunity in front of us.
Ernest M. Freedman -- Executive Vice President And Chief Financial Officer
Yes. So $59 million of that $150 million was the bulk transaction we talked about in the earnings release, but we've seen the one-off acquisition pace keep ramping up each month during the last few months. So we're feeling really good as we go into next year.
Douglas Michael Harter -- Credit Suisse AG -- Analyst
And then just, I guess, does the October volume kind of get split between the JV and the balance sheet? Or I guess, when do we start to see that split?
Ernest M. Freedman -- Executive Vice President And Chief Financial Officer
Yes. We haven't closed into the JV yet. We're finalizing our financing for the JV. I do expect before the year is done that you will see some assets close into the JV, probably later in November or certainly in December. But as of right now, everything is still closing on the balance sheet.
Douglas Michael Harter -- Credit Suisse AG -- Analyst
Right. Thank you.
Operator
The next question comes from Dennis McGill from Zelman & Associates.
Dennis Patrick McGill -- Zelman & Associates -- Analyst
Good morning. Thanks guys. First question just has to do with more on the expense side. This is maybe more just a general directional question. But do you have any sense of how many of your tenants are in work-from-home mode now? And then more bigger picture, as you roll forward, let's say, 12 or 18 months, do you have any thought to what an elevated level of work from home would mean for maintenance and service expenses, either good or bad?
Charles D. Young -- Executive Vice President And Chief Operating Officer
Yes. Dennis, it's Charles here. We don't have any specific data that says how many are working for home. But anecdotally, many of us are. And I think it's clear that there's more use on our homes than we've had in the past. And -- but there's also the benefit of lower turnover because people want to stay in their homes, they're appreciating that we have the extra space and extra bedroom and people can functionally work from home and take care of the kids and all that. So we're going to continue to monitor it. I think at the end of the day, there may be a little bit more wear and tear, but it's going to be hard to quantify, but we're also seeing lower turnover that's helping us. So I think it's going to balance itself out. We'll see where it goes over time, but we're going to continue to monitor that. We're now going into homes. We're doing all of our work orders, as Dallas said in his prepared -- in our prepared remarks, and we're completely caught up on any deferred work orders. So we're going to keep running our ProCare program and make sure that we're servicing our homes when residents need it. So time will tell. But as you can expect, I would think most people are working from home like the rest of the economy. That will get less and less over time as the economy starts to open back up.
Dennis Patrick McGill -- Zelman & Associates -- Analyst
Got it. And then on the property tax side, I think it's been relatively stable in this 5%, 6% range. We're seeing really aggressive price appreciation in the marketplace now, especially on a seasonal adjusted basis, and I imagine that's going to take some time to come through. But what would you consider to be the typical lag of, let's say, price appreciation today? And when you might have to see that come through on the property tax side? And any preliminary conversations or expectations you'd have about how that might filter through would be helpful.
Ernest M. Freedman -- Executive Vice President And Chief Financial Officer
Yes, Dennis, this is Ernie. And unfortunately, the downside of home price appreciation, which is such a positive for us, is, it is likely we'll continue to see assessments that are greater than inflation and have greater than inflationary pressure on a real estate tax. It typically takes about 12 to 18 months forward to cycle through. We're in pretty constant communication across the country. It's different times in different cycles. But we're in a pretty constant communication around -- across the country with folks with regards to what's happening in the localities, working with our experts as well as working with the local assessors to see what we can do. And so that should be a constant part of our business. It's our biggest expense, and we have a good team in place, good support around the country. But my guess is, what you're seeing now, you'll see flow through, probably not in 2021 tax bills, but if not 2021, 2022.
Dennis Patrick McGill -- Zelman & Associates -- Analyst
Ernie, would you expect that there's going to be added pressure from just municipal budget shortfalls on rate on top of just the value pressure?
Ernest M. Freedman -- Executive Vice President And Chief Financial Officer
Well, Dennis, there could be, but at the same time, remember that they're happy passing on those same assessments and increases to all the people who vote in those local jurisdictions because we get taxed the same way as end users. And so I think, in general, there's going to be pressures in some jurisdictions. Now the good news is, the jurisdictions who are the biggest pressures and where's the biggest fiscal challenges are probably in markets where we're not invested any. A lot of the markets in the Northeast were very few, and few of the dollars invested in the Midwest and some of those markets. So I think other parts of the country will see even more pressure there. But my guess is broader commercial real estate owners will have more pressure than residential owners for the fact that if we get a higher tax bill, so does everyone else in the neighborhood who votes and lives in that jurisdiction.
Dennis Patrick McGill -- Zelman & Associates -- Analyst
Alright. Well, thank you guys. Good luck.
Operator
Next question comes from Rich Hill from Morgan Stanley.
Richard Hill -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst
I want to come back to the breadcrumbs that you were kind enough to give us both for 4Q and 2021. I want to, first of all, start with the headwinds on bad debt. At some point, you're going to anniversary, and at some point, you're going to be collecting more rent, in line with what you've historically collected. So as we think about 2021, is there a scenario where those headwinds actually become tailwinds in the second half of the year?
Ernest M. Freedman -- Executive Vice President And Chief Financial Officer
I think, certainly, as things normalize, now it's hard to predict when that's going to normalize, and we hope it's in 2021, that we'll get back to, I would hope, bad debt numbers that we used to have in the past, which were 40 to 50 basis points. So I think that's certainly a possibility. It's very hard to predict right now when that may happen, but that would certainly be an expectation at some point as we work our way through this cycle.
Richard Hill -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst
Got it. And then the second portion of that is the leasing growth that you're seeing. I think you said 5% for renewals. Everything that we're seeing on the new lease side suggests that it can continue to accelerate higher from what you reported in 3Q. So as I'm thinking about 2020, 2021, it just seems to me that the bad debt headwind goes away, the lease growth continues to rise. And so there's a real healthy path for maybe meaningful increased acceleration in same-store rev. And I'm not asking you to guide, but I'm just trying to make sure our methodology is correct as we think about that.
Ernest M. Freedman -- Executive Vice President And Chief Financial Officer
Well, certainly, as we're finishing out the fourth quarter here, we're seeing acceleration in a lot of important factors in a favorable way on the same-store side. In October, we're anticipating our renewal growth rate is going to be higher than it was in September. We're expecting the new lease rate to be higher than it was in September. And occupancy is actually going to tick up probably about five or 10 basis points as we finish out the month. So we're -- and we finished at 97.9% for September. It looks like October is going to get to 98%. As they always say, trees don't grow to the sky, Rich, but things are certainly set favorably from us from a supply and demand perspective. And we're seeing this in a time where typically you wouldn't see it. We're out of peak season right now. So -- I've been in the residential space for a long time and have not seen accelerating fundamentals this late after peak season. So that all sets up very favorably for us. On the flip side, we're in a challenging environment. And it's not known exactly how the pandemic is -- how it's going to play out, whether local regulatory rules change on us and in terms of how we can run our business and things like that. But we're certainly feeling very good about how we did through the third quarter and fortunate where we're at, team has worked really hard. It's setting us up for a good fourth quarter that as we gave the breadcrumbs, it feels a lot like how the third quarter will be or may be a little bit better on the same-store metrics, as I talked about in the prepared remarks. I just -- I want to be cautious about getting too far ahead of ourselves about what 90, 180, 360 days out may look like.
Richard Hill -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst
Understood. You and I had different I appreciate that. Thanks guys. Nice quarter.
Operator
The next question comes from Haendel St. Juste from Mizuho.
Haendel Emmanuel St. Juste -- Mizuho Securities USA -- Analyst
Good morning. I guess my first question is on the pricing power in the portfolio. The continued acceleration in pricing power this year has been pretty remarkable. You're pushing rents at levels you were a year ago and deeper into the years than you typically would, while still managing to grow occupancy 11 months in a row. So -- and it sounds like by your comments that you're still -- that you're willing to push maybe even a little harder on the rate [that] here going into the year-end. So I guess, I'm curious, sounds like the demand is strong, so perhaps some color on maybe some application levels and how they compare to maybe a year ago? But also, how are we thinking about occupancy? Are you willing to perhaps trade a bit of occupancy here to sustain that 4%-ish type of blended rate growth? And then as we look into next year, the world returning a bit to maybe a more normal place or at least on a path to more normal post vaccine, how concerned are you about maybe some of that occupancy degradation or other operating headwinds? Thanks.
Ernest M. Freedman -- Executive Vice President And Chief Financial Officer
Haendel, you always seem to do a good job at asking multiple questions at once. So we will make sure we try and them. So let me turn over to Charles to see if we can get through each of those items you brought up.
Charles D. Young -- Executive Vice President And Chief Operating Officer
Great. Haendel, I'll do my best to kind of work through it. Why don't I start with occupancy because I think it's an important note to highlight. And I think I said this on the last call. When COVID hit, we were actually running really nicely on occupancy. We were at kind of an all-time high for that period in Q1, Q2 at that time. And so we came in at a position of strength. And then we wanted to see how it all played out. And so we got a little conservative on rate and solved for that occupancy, but we quickly pivoted. And you can see now how we're pushing. But some of that occupancy gain is, yes, lower turnover; yes, it's COVID demand, but it's also been really great execution by our teams on days to reresident, where, as I mentioned, we were down 14 days in Q3, and we're down seven days overall. And that has a real push on how quickly we turned in keeping our occupancy up. So if we can continue to do that, that gives us some confidence to try to get back to some normalcy on the rate side and try to capture market rents. And so you're seeing that absolutely on the new lease side, and we ended September on new lease at 6.2%. And October seems to have the same similar demand. Again, this is very late in the season. Typically seasonality will slow down right now. So we're trying to capture that. And as I talked about in my earlier call -- earlier comments, we're trying to balance the renewal side. We're getting back to normal to a degree, but we are still instructing our teams to find that right balance. And so we're not going to push too hard into the winter here when we don't have a vaccine and we know that there may be some moments where there's going to be some uncertainty. So we're just trying to find that right balance. And keeping that occupancy high gives us a position where we feel like we can do that, and keeping days to reresident where we want to is another place to do that. And a lot of that has been driven by just getting our turn times down, pre-leasing and being really thoughtful around how we manage that side of the business.
Haendel Emmanuel St. Juste -- Mizuho Securities USA -- Analyst
Charles, thank you. I guess I wanted to ask a question on the JV as well and regarding more potential conflicts that might arise. I understand the JV is going to pursue similar assets that you will on your own balance sheet. So maybe can you talk about the mechanism for resolving any perceived conflicts on what you buy versus what perhaps the JV would buy in similar markets? And then I also understand that your new JV partner has also formed a new JV with one of your peers. So curious how that potential perception of conflict might be carved out or addressed? Thanks.
Dallas B. Tanner -- President And Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Great question, Haendel. First of all, I'll talk more about the overall structure, but there's no conflict between us and anything that they would do with that other peer. We have defined price zones that we're allowed to invest and operate in and the same for them. And so as you know, we typically buy a little more higher end, nicer product. I think the way to think about the JV is that it's incremental growth for our business at the end of the day. And I'll give you an example. In a market like Atlanta, where we have 12,500 units, we are, on balance sheet, obviously, a bit more picky about what would go into the portfolio at any given time, given that we have substantial scale and exposure in that market. We certainly see opportunities to invest in Atlanta, and the JV is a perfect vehicle for us to go in and to maybe be more active than we otherwise would on our wholly owned balance sheet, given our own capital limitations or expectations. The way that we've done it internally is that with our buying, we have basically an agnostic way for our teams to be as active as they normally are, and then we're able to allocate the properties between the balance sheet and the JV after they go into contract. And so at the ground level or at the, call it, market level, our folks aren't making those decisions as to where they go. We have predetermined ratios, as Ernie mentioned, that help us kind of delineate when and where those will go based on market parameters that we've discussed with our partners in the JV.
Haendel Emmanuel St. Juste -- Mizuho Securities USA -- Analyst
Got it. That's great, Dallas. And if I may add a follow-up to that. And what about future overall JV appetite? I guess, is this it for now? Certainly, we've heard stories of the long list of folks interested in investing in the space. So I'm just curious if -- the future JV appetite, if perhaps you'd be willing to bring in a second partner or perhaps are you more inclined to expand this current JV out? Or have -- do you have the ability to expand this one further out? Thanks.
Dallas B. Tanner -- President And Chief Executive Officer, Director
We're comfortable with the partner we have right now. I think 2020 is the perfect example of why having a flexible structure with a partner like Rockpoint is perfect for us in this environment. There's stock price volatility, yet you still see meaningful opportunities to invest and grow your own balance sheet. We have absolute flexibility as a company to take down any potential M&A on our balance sheet. We haven't given away any of those rights or anything like that. And in addition, as we see opportunities to grow, if this particular structure worked, I'm sure we could find ways to expand it if we wanted to, but we're comfortable with what we've got. And we don't want to take a focus off growing our own balance sheet as well. That is a big focus for us, and we have not negated any of that flexibility going forward.
Haendel Emmanuel St. Juste -- Mizuho Securities USA -- Analyst
Great. Thanks, Dallas.
Operator
Next question comes from Jade Rahmani from KBW.
Ryan John Tomasello -- Keefe, Bruyette -- Analyst
This is Ryan on for Jade. Thanks for taking the questions. Just looking at the build-to-rent model that a number of other players are looking to pursue or are pursuing, has your view around that strategy changed at all? Wondering if you would consider increasing your footprint there, whether through -- on balance sheet or potentially through JVs in that strategy.
Dallas B. Tanner -- President And Chief Executive Officer, Director
So about 10% of what we buy today comes from builders, more or less, in parts of communities where we'll buy a new product that's got builder warranties and everything else associated with that, that you like about that model but, again, not compromising location. I think for us, as we've done some of this and dove into it, first thing is we don't like the balance sheet risk that's associated with being a developer in today's environment. You've got rising prices, rising costs, labor challenges. We love the idea of being able to buy direct and being able to be one of the best buyers of finished homes from builders. We think that's a good opportunity for us if it lines up with our expectations around location. We are certainly open to thinking strategically with partners in the market, whether it be builders that are local or boutique in nature and finding ways to create more opportunities together. I think we are very comfortable right now in the fact that we're not out buying land, working on entitlements and running that part of the business. We feel very comfortable with our playbook that we're operating in right now.
Ryan John Tomasello -- Keefe, Bruyette -- Analyst
Great. And you mentioned you see upside in the Dallas portfolio you acquired in terms of yield. I was wondering if you can quantify that at all and maybe more broadly discuss the type of return uplift you can typically achieve by bringing on these smaller portfolios onto your more scaled platform?
Dallas B. Tanner -- President And Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, it's a great question. And I can also talk about the trade that we did in the first quarter in Las Vegas last year. It's interesting when we buy these portfolios where the asset quality lines up with what we want in our portfolio long term, almost nine times out of 10, we see some embedded loss-to-lease in a lot of these properties. And so for us, we're able to be either a bit more aggressive on the underwrite or feel pretty comfortable given where the current yields are that we can argue a discount on pricing and be able to go in and over the course of 12 months, pick up a lot of that embedded loss-to-lease. So in the case of the portfolio in Dallas, there's probably an easy 30 basis points of yield there if we just go in and restructure leases, whether on the renewal or as things go vacant and roll off. And we saw that in the portfolio that we did in Las Vegas last year, where I think we bought it in the kind of mid- to high 5s. And very quickly, we were in like the low 6s once we had turned all those units within a 12-month period or reestablished renewal pricing. Very quickly, we got to kind of a stabilized NOI yield in the low 6s. So that's hard to buy in a market like Las Vegas or Dallas today given the quality that we go after. So we definitely like the opportunities to buy these smaller portfolios that have been assembled and are somewhat stabilized.
Ryan John Tomasello -- Keefe, Bruyette -- Analyst
Okay great. Thanks for taking the questions.
Operator
The next question comes from Rick Skidmore from Goldman Sachs.
Richard Wynn Skidmore -- Goldman Sachs Group -- Analyst
Thank you. Just a couple of quick ones. In terms of ramping up acquisitions, do you have to scale up personnel to do that? Or can you do that in your existing head count?
Dallas B. Tanner -- President And Chief Executive Officer, Director
No. We're built for a variety of scale with the team that we have. So no, no impact on headcount.
Richard Wynn Skidmore -- Goldman Sachs Group -- Analyst
All right. And then second quick one. Just in terms of ancillary revenue, you talked about a year ago at your Investor Day ancillary revenue growth. How are you thinking about that now as you go into 2021? Thanks.
Dallas B. Tanner -- President And Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. We're well in line with our plan that we laid out at the Investor Day. We've updated both the programming and our smart rent packages as well as some of the optional opportunities for our residents. And there's a few more pilots that we'll be rolling out this year that will help expand that offering. We've also driven down our monthly cost, which will create a better spread for the business overall over the long haul. The second thing is, we've also rolled out our updated filter programs, which are now automatic as part of our leases. If you sign a new lease with us today, we will -- you get filters drop shipped to your home every 90 days that are expected to be replaced by the resident. There's a cost benefit to that for the business as well. But also on the expense side, we believe that this will have a material impact over time in helping drive down HVAC costs. And then there are a few other things that we're piloting this year that we talked about during the Investor Day, such as pest control, some -- a few other kind of ideas that we're piling out and fine-tuning before we roll out nationally. But we're well on our way to achieving some of those goals that we laid out in September of last year.
Richard Wynn Skidmore -- Goldman Sachs Group -- Analyst
Thank you.
Operator
The next question comes from Tyler Batory from Janney Capital Markets.
Tyler Anton Batory -- Janney Montgomery -- Analyst
Good morning. Thank you for taking the questions. I wanted to follow up on the acquisition topic. I'm sorry to beat a dead horse in terms of some of these questions. But any markets specifically that are looking more or less attractive in terms of some of the demand dynamics out there as you're ramping up acquisitions? Any thoughts in terms of moving into new markets, perhaps? And then last, when you're looking at the mix of where you might be sourcing acquisitions, any change there [as you're seeing] more opportunities on the bulk side or perhaps working with builders as well?
Dallas B. Tanner -- President And Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. No real change in the volume mix. I would say 70%, 80% of this is typically coming through traditional channels right now, maybe another 10% to 15% through builder relationships. And then I put 5% in kind of the iBuyer/FSBO community piece of it. I think our channels are getting better and more robust with iBuyers. We're working on algorithms and things with them that will also open up, hopefully, new product lines. We talked about sale-leaseback in the past, and that's an area that we're really focused on. In terms of market mix, no, it's the usual suspects for us. I mean we love the Sun Belt. We love the fact that our coastal presences still have a tremendous amount of demand. I mean if you look at the difference between what multifamily are seeing in California versus what we're seeing in single family, it's almost night and day. And we're seeing really good blended rates come out of both Southern and Northern California with extremely high occupancy. So those continue to be good markets for us. We want to try to buy as much product as we can in the markets like Phoenix, Denver and Dallas and continue to add to our footprints, as I mentioned before on the question around the JV, in markets like Charlotte and Atlanta. And we've continued to cull, in relationship -- in relation to your disposition question, on the margins in parts of Midwest, a little bit of South Florida, being smart about HOAs that are presenting challenges or properties that have potential capex risk down the road. And so the team has done -- the asset management group specifically has done a really nice job of putting the portfolio in the shape it is in today, so that Charles and his teams can go out and execute the numbers they are.
Tyler Anton Batory -- Janney Montgomery -- Analyst
Okay. Great. That's helpful. And as a follow-up question, curious on the capex side of things, both with reoccurring and then the initial renovation capex. Are you seeing any cost creep in terms of labor or material costs that might be impactful there?
Ernest M. Freedman -- Executive Vice President And Chief Financial Officer
No. To date, Tyler, we haven't. So fortunately, the -- our initial renovation budgets have been running on budget or slightly inside. And we continue to harden our assets at the beginning and then investing more when we acquire a home than we would have maybe seven or eight or nine years ago. So that hasn't been a price pressure for us. And on the R&M, recurring capex side, fortunately, we're locked in some good contracts for the majority of the things that we're buying for R&M. And that -- so we haven't seen any challenges really on the labor side or the cost side. But we're monitoring it very, very closely. It's the right question to ask in this environment, that there could be some pressure there, but so far, we're doing OK.
Tyler Anton Batory -- Janney Montgomery -- Analyst
Okay great. That's all for me. Thank you.
Operator
The next question comes from John Pawlowski from Green Street.
John Joseph Pawlowski -- Green Street Advisors -- Analyst
Thanks. Just one question for me. Dallas, a follow-up on the disposition conversation. Curious in some markets that you don't think are long-term hold or you're less bullish on, is COVID kind of handing you a gift in terms of the temporary sugar high in values or propping up values, where we stare out three to five years and the values don't make sense in terms of the rent growth you can expect and you potentially pull forward a market exit or a big bulk sale?
Dallas B. Tanner -- President And Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. I think sugar rush is probably too strong of a word. I mean, truthfully, John, as I think about it, as you take a step back, we're probably undersupplied by plus or minus one million housing units today. So that's creating natural pressure on pricing, right, from a demand perspective. I think in some of these markets where we have seen, to your point, probably better pricing later in the year, totally has to do with some of the COVID-related impact. In Florida, for example, and I'm sure you're seeing some of the same things. I mean house prices are moving very quickly. And people from the Northeast moving South, they want the warm weather, they want space. A lot of bankers taking temporary residence in parts of like Florida, I know several of them. And they're buying homes and making decisions on school districts and all these things, whether it's for a 1- to 2-year step or if it's going to be longer term. I think some of that has definitely carried through on pricing power as you're going to sell assets. But taking a step back to last year this time, we weren't having any problem selling assets at the same point in time in 2019. There's plenty of demand given that supply has been pretty low year-over-year. But I mean, a little bit of a sugar rush maybe. Does that equate to maybe an opportunity, to the latter part of your question, in selling parts of markets down the road? Well, first of all, I don't see anything in our portfolio today that would suggest that we want to get out of the market completely. So I don't think it's really relevant to the way we're looking at our book today. And remember, these things, if you try to sell an entire market, will trade on some sort of a yield. So you got to be in line with where normalized price parameters would be for somebody that's looking at something of a trade of that size. So I don't think so, is the short answer to your question, but it certainly feels healthy. It feels like the lack of supply in the marketplace is being a bit exacerbated with people moving South, and you're seeing that reflect in both rate and asset pricing, for sure.
John Joseph Pawlowski -- Green Street Advisors -- Analyst
Okay. Got it. Thank you.
Operator
The next question comes from Derek Johnston from Deutsche Bank.
Derek Charles Johnston -- Deutsche Bank AG -- Analyst
Hi, everyone. How are you all doing? You've covered a lot. So I'll try to be creative. I'm trying to better understand the NAV accretion opportunity here. And given the continued and recent rise in single-family home values and even largely or especially in your markets, how do you track and what is the embedded mark-to-market of the portfolio versus when the homes were acquired? And secondly, more specific to the dispose in 3Q, can you share the gain on sales versus the initial home purchase price plus capex?
Ernest M. Freedman -- Executive Vice President And Chief Financial Officer
So Derek, we look at NAV, we look at it a couple of different ways. We do it in one way that you just kind of described, was we take it on a home by home basis. We look at the last time we got a BPO, broker price opinion. And then we roll that forward based on housing index. And we do that thing on a home by home basis, so it's a pretty large spreadsheet, to give us a sense for what do we think the homes are worth from a BPO perspective. But what we also do is we triangulate it against cap rate approach. We have a pretty good sense of where cap rates are in each of our markets because we're active buyers and we're active sellers. And we compare those two amounts, often average them, so they're not always on top of each other, to get a sense for what I think our NAV is. We certainly have had seen some great appreciation from when we bought these homes. And if you think about it, we bought 50,000 of these homes in the Invitation Homes world, mainly in 2012, 2013, 2014, and then another 30,000 homes came on the platform at fair value when we did a merger with Colony Starwood. And of course, those homes are bought at the same time, between 2012, 2013, 2014, there were some nice increases at that point. So I don't have an exact number I can share with you that what is the appreciation from a cost basis of our homes other than, if you look at our GAAP financial statements and see what our cost basis is there, I think most would agree, if you do a cap rate approach or a BPO approach, there is a significant increase in what those values are today and where that would be and certainly in the many billions of dollars in terms of the increase that's happened there. And then in terms of -- we do disclose in our GAAP financial statements the gains that we have as we sell homes. Off the top of my head, Derek, I can't give you the exact number, I'm sorry, as to -- as what it is other than we disclosed in our financial statements.
Derek Charles Johnston -- Deutsche Bank AG -- Analyst
We can look that up. Thanks, guys.
Operator
There are no more questions in the queue. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Dallas Tanner for any closing remarks.
Dallas B. Tanner -- President And Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks again for joining us today. We wish you all the best. Please stay safe. And operator, this concludes our call. [Operator Closing Remarks]
Duration: 54 minutes
Call participants:
Greg Van Winkle -- Investor Relations
Dallas B. Tanner -- President And Chief Executive Officer, Director
Charles D. Young -- Executive Vice President And Chief Operating Officer
Ernest M. Freedman -- Executive Vice President And Chief Financial Officer
Nicholas Gregory Joseph -- Citigroup Inc. -- Analyst
Alua Noyan Askarbek -- BofA Merrill Lynch -- Analyst
Douglas Michael Harter -- Credit Suisse AG -- Analyst
Dennis Patrick McGill -- Zelman & Associates -- Analyst
Richard Hill -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst
Haendel Emmanuel St. Juste -- Mizuho Securities USA -- Analyst
Ryan John Tomasello -- Keefe, Bruyette -- Analyst
Richard Wynn Skidmore -- Goldman Sachs Group -- Analyst
Tyler Anton Batory -- Janney Montgomery -- Analyst
John Joseph Pawlowski -- Green Street Advisors -- Analyst
Derek Charles Johnston -- Deutsche Bank AG -- Analyst
