American Tower (AMT) Q4 2020 Earnings Call Transcript

American Tower (AMT -0.26%)
Q4 2020 Earnings Call
Feb 25, 2021, 8:30 a.m. ET

Contents:

• Prepared Remarks
• Questions and Answers
• Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the American Tower fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 earnings conference call. As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. Following the prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions.

[Operator instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Igor Khislavsky, vice president of investor relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Igor Khislavsky -- Vice President, Investor Relations

Good morning and thank you for joining American Towers fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 earnings conference call. We post our presentation which will refer to throughout our prepared remarks under the Investor Relations tab of our website www.americantower.com. Our agenda for this morning's call will be as follows: First, I'll quickly summarize our financial results for the quarter and full-year 2020. Next, Tom Bartlett, our president, and CEO will provide a strategic update on our long-term growth trajectory.

And finally, Rod Smith, our executive vice president, CFO, and treasurer, will discuss our 2020 results and 2021 outlook. After these comments, we will open up the call for your questions. Before I begin, I'll remind you that this call will contain forward-looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Examples of these statements include our expectations regarding future growth including our 2021 outlook, capital allocation, and future operating performance, our expectations regarding the impacts of COVID-19, our expectations regarding the impacts of the AGR decision in India, our expectations regarding our pending Telxius transaction, and any other statements regarding matters that are not historical facts.

You should be aware that certain factors may affect us in the future and could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in these forward-looking statements. Such factors include the risk factors set forth in this morning's earnings press release, those set forth in our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019, as updated in our Form 10-Q for the three months ended March 31, 2020, and in other filings we make with the SEC. We urge you to consider these factors and remind you that we undertake no obligation to update the information contained in this call to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Now, please turn to Slide 4 of our presentation which highlights our financial results for the fourth quarter and full-year 2020.

During the quarter, our property revenue increased 10% to $2.1 billion. Our adjusted EBITDA grew by 13% to nearly $1.4 billion and our consolidated AFFO and consolidated AFFO per share increased by 8.9% and 8.8%, respectively, to $936 million and $2.10. On an FX-neutral basis, growth rates for property revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and consolidated AFFO per share would have been 13.4%, 15.9%, and 11.9%, respectively. Finally, net income attributable to American Tower Corporation common stockholders decreased by roughly 35% to $365 million or $0.82 per diluted common share.

The decrease included the impacts of approximately $181 million in impairment charges in the quarter across several markets, as well as the non-recurrence of certain income tax benefits in India from 2019. From a full-year perspective, our property revenue increased 6.5% to nearly $8 billion, our adjusted EBITDA grew by 8.7% to approximately $5.2 billion, and our consolidated AFFO and consolidated AFFO per share increased by 7.6% and 7.5%, respectively, to nearly $3.8 billion and $8.49. On an FX-neutral basis, full-year growth rates for property revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and consolidated AFFO per share would have been 10.8%, 12.3%, and 11.6%, respectively. Finally, net income attributable to American Tower Corporation common stockholders decreased by about 10.4% to $1.7 billion or $3.79 per diluted common share, again, impacted by the impairment charges in the fourth quarter and the non-occurrence of certain income tax benefits in India from 2019.

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Tom.

Tom Bartlett -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Igor. Good morning, everyone. As you just saw from our posted results, we finished 2020 with another strong quarter and have solid momentum heading into 2021. Globally, the secular trends in mobile that we've leveraged to deliver sustainable, long-term growth are firmly intact.

As advancing mobile technology modernizes economies, transforms the lives of billions of people, and connects us during an unprecedented pandemic, our extensive communications real estate portfolio is well-positioned to serve as the fundamental backbone of today and tomorrow's modern wireless networks and we're excited about our path forward. But before I get into our future expectations, I want to first briefly summarize our last five years of performance and highlight the key drivers of those results. As a form of a backdrop what we expect going forward. Turning to Slide 6 of our presentation, you can see that from 2015 to 2020, we've generated an 11% CAGR for consolidated property revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and consolidated AFFO per share.

These results were supported by attractive organic tenant billings growth rates which averaged 6% in the U.S. and 7% internationally. Additionally, over the last five years, we have meaningfully enhanced our global newbuild program, creating a platform that enabled us to construct nearly 5,900 sites just this past year and almost 17,000 sites since the start of 2016. Our focus on new site construction, together with our proven, disciplined M&A strategy has resulted in the addition of nearly 100,000 new sites over the last five years, further lifting our returns and growth trajectory.

Concurrently, we grew our annual common stock dividend by more than 150% from $1.81 per share in 2015 to $4.53 per share in 2020, adding another attractive element to our total return formula. The consistency of our performance over these last five years speaks to the fact that our Stand and Deliver strategy is working. The four pillars of this strategy: operational efficiency, growing our assets and capabilities, extending our platform, and driving industry leadership have continued to pay dividends across our global asset base. We firmly believe that the continued implementation of these strategic priorities will result in sustainable, long-term growth generation and that remains our focus.

In other words, while we are obviously mindful of and realize the importance of our quarterly numbers, the way that we run the company is fundamentally designed to optimize returns over a much longer planning horizon. And we believe our results speak for themselves. This philosophy is evidenced by, among other things, our strategic, long-term contracts such as the T-Mobile agreement that we signed in September. In the immediate term, that deal will result in some elevated churn.

But over the longer term, we expect it to create tremendous value for our stockholders while helping to secure a significant share of industry-leasing activity in our sites and supporting the deployment of 5G across the country. Our recently announced Telxius transaction is another good example of our Stand and Deliver construct in action. Our financial strength, proven capital allocation strategy, and objective of gaining scale in the most attractive markets globally enabled us to identify what we believe to be a unique opportunity for long-term value creation in Europe, and overall, as we expand our global platform. As is typical with our investments, this transaction is expected to be immediately accretive to consolidated AFFO per share.

However, most of the accretion in shareholder value will be realized over time as we generate lease-up, construct additional sites to round out the portfolio, and drive higher margins. Additional future upside may come, we believe, from our platform expansion initiatives, particularly in markets like Germany where we anticipate that edge computing will be important for carriers and enterprise accounts themselves as they seize the benefits of 5G. And the ability to be in a unique position to be able to provide a global platform of well over 200,000 sites in over 20 countries pro forma for Telxius to global MNOs, hyperscalers, enterprise accounts, and data center companies should drive additional value over time. Our Stand and Deliver commitment also drives our focus on industry leadership, particularly in the area of ESG, including among other things are increasing use of renewable energy, reduction of our emissions, and numerous human-capital initiatives designed to ensure that we remain as not only a preferred employer but also a positive driving force in our communities.

This was particularly relevant this past year as we enhanced our commitments to diversities throughout the company, committed funds to help counter social injustice and structural inequities, and sought additional opportunities to make a positive impact including initiatives to help bridge the digital divide through programs like our digital villages. Our culture at American Tower is extremely important to me personally, as well as the rest of our executive team. And while we clearly have more to do, I'm proud of the tremendous strides we have all made together over the last few years. Looking forward, we expect our continued execution of Stand and Deliver to result in similarly attractive, long-term sustainable growth for American Tower and compelling total returns for our stockholders.

Moving to Slide 7, you can see that the U.S. and Canada organic tenant billings growth will continue to be a critical component of our long-term success. Having said that, as I just mentioned, we will have elevated levels of U.S. churn beginning in the fourth quarter of this year and particularly in 2022 which will result in average U.S.

organic tenant billings growth rates of around 2% across the next two years. This is due to the legacy Sprint network being substantially decommissioned by T-Mobile and the fact that unlike our peers, we have been able to limit iDen-related churn to date as a result of previous master lease agreements. Adjusted to exclude these cancellations, our expected U.S. organic tenant billings growth through 2022 would average around 5%.

As part of that growth, we expect our gross new business commencements to accelerate beyond 2020 levels given the deployment of new technology, new spectrum, and new market entrants. What's even more interesting for us in line with our focus on long-term growth is the organic trajectory beginning in 2023. As you can see in the slide, from 2023 through 2027, we expect organic tenant billings growth to accelerate to on average at least 5% on a reported basis and at least 6% excluding the impacts of the remaining legacy Sprint churn. Importantly, much of this growth is contractual in part driven by escalators on existing leases which will continue to average more than 3% per year, and in part represented by future new business that we have locked in through contractual frameworks like our agreement with T-Mobile.

Said another way, the majority of our expected baseline future organic growth in the United States through 2027 is contractually guaranteed today. This is further supported by our expectations that churn in the U.S. will be lower than historical levels once the legacy Sprint leases fully roll off in 2024. The non-contractually guaranteed components of these projections are based on the assumption that annual wireless capex in the U.S.

will be slightly higher than current levels through 2027 as 5G deployments take hold and as new spectrum like C-Band is deployed. This in many ways mirrors what has occurred in the past with new technology rollouts where capex levels have risen with each new G. We continue to believe that the carriers have a mandate to deploy 5G as quickly as possible, given it is the most cost-effective way for them to address the tremendous growing levels of mobile data traffic streaming across their networks. As a result, we expect to see meaningful incremental densification and amendment activity for the foreseeable future driving strong growth.

Importantly, we've not layered in any material assumptions around a potential new entrant outside of Dish and we have assumed only modest contributions from edge computing and other platform-expansion initiatives within these numbers. We are working diligently to unearth additional meaningful opportunities that can drive further upside to our growth rates. Turning to Slide 8, we are also reiterating our aspirational goal of delivering average annual double-digit consolidated AFFO per share growth for the next seven years, including initial guidance of around 8.5% growth for 2021. We expect the U.S.

organic growth I just referenced to to be an important component of our AFFO trajectory. In addition, similar to what we have seen in the past, our expectation is for international organic tenant billings growth rates to be at least 200 basis points higher than the U.S. over the long term, further enhancing our consolidated AFFO per share growth. Many of our international markets who are in earlier stages of technology development have little to no fixed-line penetration and require tremendous incremental investment in their wireless network infrastructure to support future densification.

The criticality of wireless in these locations has been further highlighted during the ongoing pandemic as have the limitations of current network infrastructure. As a result, we expect that as carriers ramp their network investments, our emerging market organic growth rates will continue to be very attractive. Meanwhile, in more advanced markets like Germany, we are now seeing early stages of 5G build-outs which we believe will result in a long pathway of attractive growth as well. Importantly, we expect organic growth in Germany to accelerate meaningfully over the next several years.

Furthermore, we expect recent and future M&A, together with our accelerating newbuild program to drive additional value. This includes our pending Telxius deal, several recently closed transactions in the United States, as well as the nearly 5,900 sites we constructed in 2020, and the roughly 6,500 sites we expect to build in 2021. In fact, based upon the demand we are seeing for new sites across our international business, we are targeting the construction of 40,000 to 50,000new towers over the next five years with day one NOI yields continuing to be extremely attractive. And on the M&A side, we expect there to be numerous additional opportunities for us to deploy capital toward high-quality assets with attractive counterparties and favorable economics.

As in the past, we expect M&A to be a key piece of our future growth story. Enhancing operational efficiency, another pillar of Stand and Deliver, will also be a key area for us as we seek to drive continued double-digit growth in consolidated AFFO per share. As we incrementally globalize the business, we are creating shared service centers, optimizing various back-office processes, sharpening our pencils on site-level services like energy provision, and focusing resources on further enhancing and improving our customers' experience with us, utilizing drone technology, and our instant Colo initiatives are examples of how we are both scaling more efficiently and increasing the value proposition for our customers. We remain laser-focused on driving margin improvement throughout the business which should translate into continued high conversion rates of adjusted EBITDA to consolidated AFFO.

Finally, we continue to believe that our leading investment-grade balance sheet is a key differentiator for the company and expect that it will be an important component in achieving double-digit consolidated AFFO per share growth. The investment-grade debt markets remain extremely attractive from both the rate and access perspective and we feel good about our ability to not only complete value-additive refinancing transactions but also to fund accretive M&A in the future. We remain fully committed to our investment-grade credit rating and expect it to be an important element of our future success. In conclusion, we believe that we are exceptionally well-positioned to extend our long track record of driving strong growth and attractive returns, particularly at a point in time when mobile broadband connectivity globally has never been more critical.

We have tremendous visibility into our future baseline growth trajectory, including having roughly $59 billion in contractually committed revenues supported by long-term, mutually beneficial, comprehensive master lease agreements with key tenants. We also expect to have some interesting opportunities to further enhance that baseline through platform expansion initiatives like edge computing, Power as a Service, and other potential sources of upside. Moreover, we believe that our unmatched geographic diversification of distributed sites has the potential to set us apart from the competition, particularly in the context of an increasingly global tenant base, cross-border infrastructure deployments, and an even more connected in a digitally driven world. We firmly believe we have the right strategy, the right macro tower-oriented asset base, and the right management team to move American Tower forward into the 5G era and beyond.

With that, let me turn the call over to Rod to go through our 2020 results and the details of our 2021 outlook. Rod?

Rod Smith -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer

Thanks, Tom, and good morning, everyone. I hope you and your families are all doing well. As you can see from our press release and presentation, we had another solid year and finished 2020 on a high note, posting another strong quarter of performance across our global business. This included constructing a record number of high-return new sites, completing two sizable and accretive acquisitions in the U.S., strengthening our already strong balance sheet, and achieving higher-than-previously expected consolidated AFFO per share growth.

Our mission-critical tower portfolio, ability to execute across our global footprint, disciplined, reliable, and proven approach to capital allocation and strong balance sheet all position us to achieve the long-term predictable growth that Tom referenced earlier. As part of that growth path, we expect to have a strong year in 2021. But before I get into the details of our 2021 expectations, I'll spend a few minutes on our financial results for the quarter and the full-year 2020. As you can see on Slide 10, we reached double-digit growth in property revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and consolidated AFFO in the fourth quarter on an FX-neutral basis.

Our fourth-quarter consolidated property revenue of $2.1 billion grew on a reported basis by $191 million or 10% over the prior-year period. And on an FX-neutral basis, by $256 million or 13.4%. We generated consolidated organic tenant billings growth of 4.4% including 4% in the U.S. and 5.2% in our international markets, led by Africa at 9.4% and Latin America at more than 7%.

As expected, U.S. organic tenant billings growth pulls back a bit in Q4, due primarily to the flow-through impacts of slower activity levels earlier in the year. Meanwhile, in international markets, we completed the construction of approximately 2,900 new sites which nearly doubled the previous American Tower record set in Q3 of 2020. Adjusted EBITDA growth was 13% in the quarter with adjusted EBITDA margins up by over 150 basis points year over year due to organic growth, cost controls, and straight-line benefits.

Finally, we translated that strong adjusted EBITDA growth to solid consolidated AFFO and consolidated AFFO per share growth of nearly 9% or about 12% on a currency-neutral basis. On Slide 11, you can see that our full-year consolidated property revenue growth was 6.5% including organic tenant billings growth of 4.8% and total tenant billings growth of 9.7%. In total, we outpaced our initial property revenue outlook on a currency-neutral basis by more than $130 million. Our organic tenant billings growth included 4.5% in volume growth from collocations and amendment activity with another 3.3% generated through escalators.

Churn was just under 3% and there was a negative 10-basis-point impact from other items. For the year, we commenced over $19 million in gross new monthly business with nearly $10 million of that in the U.S. Our U.S. and Canada property revenue grew nearly 8%, supported by organic tenant billings growth of 4.6%, contributions to tenant billings from new assets of less than 1%, and approximately $135 million in higher straight-line revenue.

With respect to organic tenant billings growth, volume growth from collocations and amendments contributed 3.5% to the full-year growth rate. While pricing escalators contributed 3.2%, this was partially offset by churn of about 1.7% and a negative impact of roughly 30 basis points from other items. Our international property revenue grew by nearly 5% or by around 14.5% on a currency-neutral basis as meaningful network capital was again deployed globally by large multi-national tenants. International organic tenant billings growth was 5.1% with collocation and amendment revenue-driving 6.5% growth, while escalators contributed nearly 3.6%.

Other run-rate items added 20 basis points while churn, concentrated in India, was just over 5%. Finally, the day one revenue associated with the more than 23,000 sites we've added through M&A in our newbuild programs over the last two years, contributed nearly 5% to our global tenant billings growth. This includes the impact of our nearly 5,900 new builds in 2020 which generated average day one NOI yields of over 12%. Moving to Slide 12, for the year, adjusted EBITDA grew by nearly 9% with adjusted EBITDA margin increasing to 64.1%, a year-over-year expansion of over 150 basis points.

This increase was primarily driven by strong underlying revenue growth, net straight-line benefits, and continuing cost efficiencies throughout the business. On an effects-neutral basis, we exceeded our initial 2020 outlook for adjusted EBITDA by around $150 million. These adjusted EBITDA results included continuing progress in fuel management, particularly in Africa where we reduced our diesel usage by more than 45 million liters in 2020. As of the end of the year, we had more than 7,000 sites with lithium-ion batteries and over 3,000 with solar.

We also grew consolidated AFFO and consolidated AFFO per share by nearly 8% in 2020 as a result of our previously discussed growth in cash adjusted EBITDA. This growth was also supported by our disciplined capital market strategy. We avoided the credit market disruption caused by COVID-19 between March and May while taking full advantage of improved conditions thereafter. In fact, despite closing over $9 billion in M&A since the start of 2019, we were able to reduce our cash interest expense by approximately $40 million, maintenance capex by more than $10 million, and kept cash taxes flat 2020 verse 2019.

On a currency-neutral basis, these strategic efforts and effective management of our cost structure facilitated consolidated AFFO per share growth of roughly 11.6%, exceeding our initial expectations for the year by more than $0.23 per share. Now, let's take a look at our expectations for 2021. Before we dig into the numbers, I'd like to summarize a few of the key high-level assumptions surrounding our projections. First, both in the U.S.

and in our international markets, we expect gross new business additions to our recurring monthly run rate to be above 2020 levels. This is due to a mix of contractually -committed revenue growth particularly in the U.S. and continued solid demand for tower space internationally. Carriers are expected to deploy new technologies and new spectrum while identifying their networks to keep up with rapidly growing mobile data usage around the world.

Second, we expect churn to be somewhat elevated this year due to a combination of T-Mobile lease cancellations in the U.S. primarily in the fourth quarter, and hold-over churn in India. In the U.S., we expect that churn will be just over 3% for the full year including 6.5% in Q4 specifically. This includes scheduled cancellations as part of our agreement with T-Mobile, some legacy Sprint and Clearwire churn outside of the MLA, and normal course cancellations of around 2%.

Of the roughly $375 million in total annualized legacy Sprint churn that we expect over the next four years, more than 50% or just under $200 million will hit our run rate in 2021, with the vast majority churning off October 1. Given this is an annualized number, we will incur a quarter of the impact in 2021 with three-quarters of it coming in 2022. In India, we expect churn to be roughly 11% in 2021 which is down about 3% versus 2020 but still higher than historical levels. Similar to 2020, this churn is primarily being driven by hold over consolidation impacts in the effects of the AGR case.

We continue to work closely with the Indian wireless carriers as they plan for the future and are optimistic that churn rates in India will continue to trend down over the next several years. Finally, I would note that we have excluded the impacts of our pending Telxius transaction and its associated financings from our outlook for historical practice. We continue to expect the deal to close in multiple tranches beginning late in the second quarter, and we'll plan to layer on the deal impact into the future outlook update. As a reminder, we expect Telxius assets to be immediately accretive to consolidated AFFO per share.

Taking these assumptions into account, as you can see on Slide 13, we expect consolidated property revenue to grow by nearly 8% at the midpoint of our outlook, supported by solid overall levels of organic new business and contributions from new assets. Our U.S. and Canada property revenue is expected to grow by 8% with anticipated international property revenue growth of 7.5%, including an approximately 1% positive impact from foreign currency translation. We expect organic new business to, again, be a critical component of our overall growth in 2021.

And on a consolidated basis, our outlook assumes more than $23 million of gross new business monthly run rate added across our tower, and debt assets in 2021, up about 20% as compared to 2020. Turning to Slide 14. In the U.S. and Canada, we are projecting organic tenant billings growth of around 3% as 5G deployments continue to gather steam and network densification efforts progress.

On a gross basis, we expect monthly new business run rate added in 2021 to exceed what we added in 2020 by more than 15%. However, we will see elevated churn from T-Mobile beginning in Q4 and we will also see some carryover effects from slower activity levels in 2020, particularly earlier in the year. As a result, our organic tenant billings growth in the U.S. and Canada is expected to be lower than last year.

I would note that these projections don't include significant contributions from Dish, nor do they assume material C-Band deployments until quite late in the year. As we saw in the recently concluded C-Band auction, there is a huge premium being placed on mid-band spectrum by the carriers, and we continue to expect that the majority of mid-band deployments will be on macro tower sites. We're enthusiastic about the potential impact of these deployments on our U.S. and Canada growth, particularly in 2022 and beyond.

Moving on to Latin America, we expect organic tenant billings growth of around 7% for the year, broadly in line with what we saw in 2020. Demand trends remain solid with carriers focused on improving and extending 4G networks as mobile data usage accelerates. Additionally, we expect escalators across the region to be around 130 basis points higher than last year due primarily to certain contractual arrangements in Brazil on some of the tenant leases. Partially offsetting these items is expected churn of nearly 3% in the region due primarily to a settlement agreement we reached with Brazil related to legacy Nextel leases and some Telefonica churn in Mexico in the second half of the year.

On the inorganic side, we expect to further accelerate our newbuild program and anticipate constructing around 600 sites, a year-over-year increase of almost 50%. Incorporating contributions from these new sites, we expect Latin America tenant billings to grow by around 7.5% for the full year. Meanwhile, in Africa, 2021 organic tenants billings growth is expected to be more than 8%. We anticipate gross new business monthly run rate added to be up roughly 70% year over year with Nigeria leading the way in terms of higher activity levels.

Partially offsetting this are escalators that we anticipate will be around 70 basis points lower than last year and churn of about 3%, up about 140 basis points versus 2020. The escalators are largely a function of local CPI, while the slightly elevated churn primarily reflects some carrier consolidation in South Africa. We also expect another year of significant newbuild activity in Africa with 1,300 new builds planned for 2021. In total, we expect to drive tenant billings growth of more than 13% in the region.

In Europe, we expect organic tenant billings growth of over 3% in 2021, up from 2.2% in 2020. The acceleration is being driven by the combination of higher levels of expected new business and slightly lower churn as carriers advance their network deployments. We are starting to see some of the growth that drives our optimism around the Telxius assets in our existing European business. Germany's gross organic tenant billings growth in Q4 of 2020 was nearly 7% and is expected to continue at that level into 2021 with further accelerations anticipating in future years.

Finally, in India, we expect organic tenant billings growth to be roughly flat in 2021, broadly similar to what we saw in 2020. While we believe the wireless industry consolidation process is essentially complete, there remains some uncertainty with respect to the exact path forward post AGR. As a result, our outlook for 2021 incorporates the expectation that we will again see higher than historical levels of churn. In addition, while new monthly run rate added from new business is expected to be slightly up versus 2020 due to the activity being mostly in the second half of the year, it will not fully impact our organic growth in 2021.

As a result, although we expect churn to be 11%, down from nearly 14% in 2020, overall organic tenant billings growth is projected to be similar. Long term, we remain optimistic with respect to our India business. There is a tremendous amount of work that needs to be done to bring networks across the country up to 4G standards, and our portfolio is well-positioned to capture that activity. From a structural perspective, we think there is a path to an eventual return to high typical organic tenant billings growth rates in the high single-digits.

What is less clear is the specific timing of that growth acceleration, which will depend on a number of factors in the marketplace. As we learn more and as the trajectory becomes clear, we will plan to keep you all updated. Turning to Slide 15. At the midpoint of our outlook, we expect adjusted EBITDA to grow by almost $485 million or nearly 9.5%.

This includes continued high margin flow-through of organic growth, as well as the impacts of accretive M&A transactions completed in 2020, along with built-to-suit activity and a full year of our recent MLA agreement with T-Mobile. In addition, we expect to target areas in our business where we can take additional efficiencies, including power and fuel where we are continuing to invest in more efficient equipment and renewable energy solutions. Our cash SG&A expense as a percent of total property revenue is expected to be around 7.3%, down from just over 8% in 2020, and we anticipate further reductions in the future. Finally, our adjusted EBITDA expectations include an estimated positive impact of around $27 million from the effects of FX translation.

Moving to the next slide, we expect to convert our adjusted EBITDA growth into year-over-year growth and consolidated AFFO of around $322 million or 8.5%. This includes $358 million from FX neutral cash adjusted EBITDA growth, benefits from lower cash interest costs due to the recent refinancing initiatives, and about $23 million in favorable translational FX impacts. Partially offsetting these items is a $62 million increase in FX neutral cash taxes versus the prior year, as well as a slight increase in total maintenance capex. On a per-share basis, we expect consolidated AFFO growth to be nearly 8.5% for the year, setting the stage for us to achieve double-digit per share growth if we drive some outperformance versus current expectations.

Moving on to Slide 17, let's review our capital deployment in 2020 and our expectations for 2021. In 2020, we deployed about $2 billion for our dividend while spending roughly $1.1 billion on capex, with more than 85% of that being discretionary. Part of that discretionary spend was to build nearly 5,900 sites throughout our global footprint, a new record for American Tower. We spent around $5.5 billion, including the assumption of debt, to acquire new assets and additional stakes in our Africa and India businesses from JV partners.

And we also dedicated about $56 million to buybacks. In total, we deployed nearly $9 billion in 2020, a record year for American Tower, while staying within our leverage targets and simultaneously strengthening the balance sheet. We, again, expect to deploy capital in a consistent balanced manner in 2021. This includes $1.4 billion committed to capex, again, largely discretionary, and about $2.3 billion allocated toward our dividend, assuming a growth rate of around 15% and subject to board approval.

Included in our discretionary capex spend is the expected construction of 6,500 new sites worldwide, an increase of more than 600 sites compared to 2020. Day-one NOI yields on these builds are expected to continue to average more than 10%. In newbuild, capex remains as our highest-return investment with solid anchor tenant credit quality. In addition, and as I'll talk more in a minute, we expect to close our pending Telxius acquisition this year for total consideration of about $9.4 billion.

Including this transaction, we expect that roughly 90% of our total capital deployment in 2021 will be in investment-grade-rated geographies with investment-grade carriers. As you can see on the right side of the slide, our disciplined capital allocation strategy, coupled with solid operational execution and a strong balance sheet, has enabled us to drive consistent reoccurring long-term growth in consolidated AFFO per share, and we expect more of the same this year. In fact, in 2021, we expect our 2020 investments in newbuilds and M&A to generate around $0.15 in incremental consolidated AFFO per share. We continue to believe that both consolidated AFFO per share growth and attractive returns on invested capital are critical to our creation of long-term sustainable stockholder value.

Now, turning to Slide 18, I will discuss our financing plans for the pending Telxius acquisition. As a reminder, this transaction is transformational for our European business as it delivers significant scale in key markets, is expected to drive some of the highest organic tenant billings growth rates available in the region, and based on our analysis, represents the best portfolio of tower assets that has come to market in Europe. The total consideration will be approximately $9.4 billion, and we anticipate completing the purchase in 2021 through multiple closings. We expect the first closing to consist of a large portion of the European assets in late Q2, with the remaining assets in Europe and Latin America closing in late Q3.

Of course, this timeline may shift as the regulatory process unfolds. As we communicated when we announced the deal, we plan to finance the transaction in a manner consistent with maintaining our investment-grade credit rating. We anticipate this will include bringing our net leverage, which stood at five times at the end of 2020, up to the high five times range temporarily. Importantly, we are committed to organically delevering back down to a level consistent with our stated financial policy of three to five times net leverage over a multi-year period.

On the debt funding front, we expect to utilize a combination of our recently upsized revolving credit facilities and new euro-denominated term loans and plan to opportunistically consider long-term sources, including senior unsecured notes. The balance of the total consideration is expected to be funded with equity, which may include common stock issuances, mandatory convertible preferred instruments, and or private capital, raised through the sale of minority stakes of our European subsidiary to one or more private investment partners. On the private capital side, we are currently engaged in discussions with a select group of premier strategic investors, who not only can provide capital but also have considerable experience in telecommunications infrastructure in the European region specifically. We are encouraged by our progress on this front, and if terms are sufficiently attractive, are optimistic that we can complement a public equity issuance with a high-quality strategic private capital raise.

As always, through this process, we remain disciplined and focused on minimizing dilution to our common stockholders while optimizing our long-term value creation objectives. On Slide 19, and in summary, 2020 was a very strong resilient year for American Tower, with solid organic growth, operational efficiencies providing high conversion rates, record newbuild activity, accretive M&A, and continued value creation for our shareholders. Looking forward, we are excited about the long-term potential of our business. Our comprehensive portfolio is well-positioned to capture meaningful lease-up as new spectrum assets and new network technologies are deployed globally.

In the U.S., activity is ramping up, and we expect to continue to create significant value through the master lease agreements with key tenants. We stand ready to quickly integrate the new Telxius assets this year and leverage our expanded European presence for significant future growth which will complement our operations in other less mature markets. Taking into account continued strong tailwinds from secular growth trends in mobile, we expect to be able to deliver attractive sustainable growth in revenues and cash flows for years to come while driving compelling total stockholder returns. And with that, Operator, will you please open the line for questions.

Questions & Answers:

Operator

Thank you. [Operator instructions] And one moment please for your first question. Your first question comes from the line of Brett Feldman. Please go ahead.

Brett Feldman -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Yes, thank you for taking the question, and -- and just a few about the outlook you provided for domestic organic tenant billings growth. First, you mentioned that you do expect that gross activity is likely to increase from here. One of your peers outlined a view that that will begin in the second half of this year. I'm wondering if that's the same assumption you've embedded in your outlook? I'm also curious how sensitive your outlook is to that? I think, at this point, you have an MLA with all of your major customers, and so perhaps the -- the variability here is narrower.

And then just on churn, I think you suggested a non-Sprint churn was going to be in the 2% range this year, which is a bit above trend. I'm wondering if there's anything you need to focus on? And then I believe T-Mobile has indicated they're going to be shutting down the Sprint CDMA network I think starting next year. I -- is that captured in your churn assumptions as well? Thank you.

Rod Smith -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer

Thanks, Brett. So I'll take that. This is Rod Smith. Thanks for the question.

So with regards to our U.S. organic tenant billings growth as we roll into 2021, let me get a couple of the component drivers that will be -- that will be factors, including the new business. So as you saw in the presentation, we expect to have organic tenant billings growth of around 3% for 2021. That's down from about 4.6% in 2020.

There's a few factors driving that. The first one is that our monthly run rate new biz is anticipated to increase by about 50% year over year. So that's -- that's going to -- going to drive some growth there in our organic tenant billings growth. That obviously is being offset by a couple of factors.

One is, as you mentioned, the Sprint churn. So we do expect to begin to -- the Sprint churn in Q3 of 2021. And as you saw in the presentations and some of our prepared remarks, we are expecting over the next four years to have about $375 million of annualized Sprint churn. The vast majority, that ends up coming in in the beginning in the fourth quarter of 2021.

So we'll see churn beginning in the fourth quarter, that'll represent about $200 million of annualized run rate that'll begin to come off or come off in Q -- in Q4 of 2020. That has a drag on organic tenant billings growth of almost 100 basis points. So that explains a big chunk of that step down between year over year. The next piece that I would highlight is the activity levels coming out of 2020.

So everyone knows there was kind of a slowdown in -- from T-Mobile and Sprint in 2020, began in 2019, and -- and went into 2020. That slowdown has a flow-through effect into 2021, which also impact our growth rates. And -- and that is going to impact the beginning of the year, the first half of the year more than the second half of the year. So that's why we're consistent with what you may have heard from some other folks.

And then the final piece is this, the size of our base is getting bigger and that usually brings down growth by about 20 bps. So we have that as well. And then I would -- the final point I would make on the organic tenant billings growth is our -- our organic tenant billings growth is not that sensitive to the timing of activity. You need in other network decommissioning of this.

It's mostly made up of -- of contracts that have minimum levels of activity and predefined churn reductions and those sorts of things. So there's not a lot of variability in our numbers from that perspective. And then in terms of the Sprint, I guess I addressed the Sprint churn numbers. So I think that -- that probably addresses that part of your question, Brett.

Brett Feldman -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

OK. And then was there anything outside of Sprint churn? It sounded like that might be a little higher this year. I wasn't sure if that was a one -- a one-shot deal or something else.

Rod Smith -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer

Yeah, no. I think the way you framed it up is correct. So we expect churn -- normal churn to be within that 1% to 2% range, pretty consistent, nothing abnormal there. And then the Sprint churn, again, that begins in Q4, we'll have about 100-basis-point hit.

So when you think about that, all in, our annual churn will be in the range of 3%, a little bit above what our normal range is. And again, as you see the quarters unfold in 2021, the fourth quarter will be where you'll see that kind of that big bump up in the churn numbers. And then, of course, that will -- will take one quarter of that in 2021, and then there'll be flow-through effects from that churn into 2022 where we'll get three quarters of that churn in 2022. And that, of course, will have a flow-through negative impact on the 2022 growth numbers.

Brett Feldman -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

And -- and it's correct --

Rod Smith -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer

And gross new business is accelerating as we head into 2021, and we expect that to continue into 2022. It's really that the churn had a partially or fully offset that in 2021 or 2022.

Brett Feldman -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Got it. And just to be clear, all of this T-Mobile [Inaudible] is currently the churn, it captures everything you expect them to do with the integration, including anything you're doing with the CDMA -- CDMA network?

Tom Bartlett -- President and Chief Executive Officer

That's correct.

Rod Smith -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer

That's correct. Yup, it's all predefined and contracted.

Tom Bartlett -- President and Chief Executive Officer

And actually, Brett, I -- I -- I would just add, as -- as I've mentioned before, when we get through this churn, because -- and then we had this really locked in kind of growth rates with our key customers, we would expect the churn really to fall off quite a bit, significantly actually, and they kind of at the '23 to 20 -- '24 to '27 kind of timeframe, which is reflective in some of the growth rates that -- that I laid out for our long-term perspective.

Brett Feldman -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Rollins. Please go ahead.

Michael Rollins -- Citigroup -- Analyst

Thanks, and good morning. Tom, if I could just briefly follow up on a comment that you just made. You talked about the committed growth that you have with key customers. You also talked about that earlier in the call when you were talking about the Slide 7, 2023 to 2027 growth.

So are there additional long-term deals that you've recently renewed or entered into with carriers other than T-Mobile that is contributing to that visibility into that long-term guidance? And then just secondly, one of the questions that's come up is how to think about AFFO per share growth when you're experiencing the peak churn from the Sprint deal in 2022? Is there anything that investors should be mindful of as you're looking for that long-term target you described, but coming out of '21 and into '22 with that elevated Sprint churn that -- that you and the team were just describing?

Tom Bartlett -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, no. Hey, Michael, thanks for the questions. With regards to your first comment, I mean there are no new MLAs that -- I mean we already have MLAs in place with the major carriers, so there's nothing else that's -- that's driving that, which I think is what your question was. The -- the most significant MLA that we've recently made is clearly with -- with T-Mobile.

And so that's what's really impacting if you will. And as I -- as I mentioned, over two-thirds of over the -- the planning period that we're talking about, two-thirds of our growth rates are -- are locked in. And so we have a tremendous visibility in terms of what that's going to look like. And as I mentioned, we have $59 billion or $60 billion already contractually committed revenue on the books.

So that gives us I think some really good comfort in terms of what we would expect. On top of that, we will also have the -- the large Telxius transaction that will kick in, as Rod said, throughout the year. And so we'll have that benefit continuing forward, which kind of gets into your -- your second question. We've looked at -- as I mentioned in my comments, for the last five years, we're talking about double-digit growth rates in terms of AFFO per share.

I'm compensated candidly on the bulk on -- on AFFO per share growth, as well as return on invested capital. So those are two critical benchmarks for myself and -- and my team. So we obviously spend a lot of time working through all of the elements of those. In 2022, yeah, there is going to be the -- the trough of the -- the T-Mobile churn that we're going to see.

We know what it is. We're working on opportunities now to be able to mitigate a lot of that as we go into 2022. We put out an initial guide for 2021 at that 8.5% level. We are all hoping that we're going to be able to improve on that for 2021, particularly as we bring on that kind of the Telxius transaction.

And then we -- we're -- we're working through what 2022 will look like, but clearly are committed to driving that double-digit AFFO per share growth over the -- the long period of -- of time as we've done in the past. And so we've had historically consolidations going on. As you know, we've had consolidation churn in India over the past. No doubt that the -- the T-Mobile Sprint churn is a large item for us that we need to address.

But -- but our teams are working on it diligently right now and -- and we're trying to -- to work through that. And -- but clearly, we are committed to driving that double-digit kind of growth.

Michael Rollins -- Citigroup -- Analyst

Thanks. And just one other quick follow-up. Rod, when you're talking about the AFFO per share expectation for growth in 2021, you referred to the possibility of upside opportunities. Are those operational, financial in nature? What would be the factors? And there's a line on the slide that talks about the potential path to double-digit growth if upside opportunities to initial outlook materialize.

Thanks.

Rod Smith -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer

Yeah, Mike. I think there's a lot of -- there's a lot of additional opportunities there. Certainly, some of our operational driving down expenses, bringing up our margins. We continue to kind of work on that on a regular basis.

There are potential for additional acquisitions, as well as integrating the acquisitions that we've already announced, particularly the InSite transaction and the Telxius to drive additional growth. Capital markets activity and where rates go can certainly be interesting to us as we continue to pay down higher-cost debt and -- and replace it with lower-cost debt. Those sorts of things. As well as driving business through new business around the globe certainly could -- could help.

So there's a number of things. And -- and we always remain focused on trying to drive upside relative to our plans and outlook. So we'll just continue to do that.

Michael Rollins -- Citigroup -- Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ric Prentiss. Please go ahead.

Ric Prentiss -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Thanks. Good morning, guys. I hope you continue to do well.

Tom Bartlett -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Hey, Ric.

Ric Prentiss -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Hey.

Rod Smith -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer

Good morning, Ric.

Ric Prentiss -- Raymond James -- Analyst

First, appreciate all the details, short-term, long-term guidance, really helps set the table here as far as what we're looking at. I think a couple of the extra questions. First, you mentioned Dish is fairly modest as far as in the '21 guidance. What should we think about -- will you be able to get your fair share of -- of Dish leases with or without an MLA?

Tom Bartlett -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Next question.

Ric Prentiss -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Pretty clear.

Rod Smith -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer

Yeah. And I'll also confirm, Ric, that --

Tom Bartlett -- President and Chief Executive Officer

No, hey, Ric, I mean I don't -- I don't -- I don't mean to be a wise guy. We have. I mean if -- if you take a look at over the last several years, particularly in the United States, we've -- we've gained more than our fair share of -- of business from our -- from our customers, and it's -- it's a -- it's a function of a number of things. And it's also a function of the contracts that we --we have in place with them.

I like to think it's also a function of the level of service that we're providing and -- and the quality assets that we have. But what we have been able to -- to demonstrate that kind of outperformance. And you know, we stand ready to support Dish, and however, they're going to be rolling out their network. And we know that we know the teams well and they're -- they're smart team.

You know, Dave Mayo is a smart guy, smart operator and we're working very closely with them and so we're looking forward to it. And as I said, kind of given the location and given the quality assets, I am confident that we will gain at least our fair share of activity from -- from Dish.

Ric Prentiss -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Great. And I think in your prepared remarks you also mentioned that you've not layered in any new entrant beside Dish. Is that an allusion to maybe cable operators starting to deploy some CBRS or what might that come and also imply?

Tom Bartlett -- President and Chief Executive Officer

You know, it -- it kind of covers the waterfront, right? I mean, it -- who -- who knows. I mean, yes, clearly whether there are cable cos or some of those that might be looking to move off of some of their MVNO. We see that happening in other markets. You know, we see that happening in Germany, for example, and having you know has a strong relationship with Telefonica is going to be looking to -- to build out their network in -- in Germany.

So, it's so hard to say who might be looking to do that. I think, with the -- with the deployment and the new technology. Who knows even whether the hyperscalers or whom -- who might else be coming into the -- to the marketplace wouldn't -- wouldn't surprise me and I don't think it would surprise you either. So, it's kind of a blanket statement that we just don't know what we don't know relative to other players coming into the market.

So, we haven't included them clearly in any of our forecasts.

Ric Prentiss -- Raymond James -- Analyst

And speaking of the MVNOs in Germany, any thoughts about timing to get some agreements in place with a holistic approach in Germany, given the new portfolio and particularly the rooftops are getting?

Tom Bartlett -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. You know, we've been -- we've been working with all of the players in the market for several years, obviously, and -- and most recently since we have a new potential entrant into the market. Just as with every other one of our customers working very closely, I think, that the -- the assets that we now have, the presence that we now have in Germany gives us a really good platform to be able to support this existing MVNO and new build in -- in Germany. And I think, it's right, yeah.

You know, we're really excited about some of the organic growth that we expect to see in the region particularly in -- in Germany as they've just gotten through their 5G spectrums and as we see new entrants coming into the marketplace. And now, you know, with the presence that we have there, particularly with the rooftops, we now have that dense urban area covered which we didn't have before. So, I think it really positions as well to be able to capture new business.

Ric Prentiss -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Makes sense. The last one for me is a modest edge assumption. When does edge become real and is it going to tie up the same in the U.S. as it is in Europe and other markets?

Tom Bartlett -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I clearly see it advancing in the United States first. But candidly, I almost see the opportunity for it to be even greater outside of the United States. And that's where I think that the, you know, your pro forma for Telxius where, you know, 220,000 sites. We're looking to build 40,000 to 50,000 more sites over the next several years.

You know, we have a massive global platform, Ric, which I think is really going to be -- puts us in a really unique spot to be able to offer that global platform to hyperscalers, datacenter companies, even global MNOs who are looking for that kind of a ubiquitous tie -- type of a capability. And so, you know, that's what we're looking and trying to build here. You know, this is not 2021, you know, real big revenue opportunity. You know, I think, it's going to take a few years, but we have MOUs in place with several companies in the United States working with them on different kind of value propositions, a different type of market entries, we have proof of concepts that we're bringing -- we're dropping in front of the major MNOs.

And so, we're very excited on it -- about it. We're -- we're spending a lot of think time working through this and working with potential partners. This is not something that we would be looking to bring entirely on our own. So, I do see this as a -- an opportunity to be partnering with a number of other players to bring.

And I think that even in our own market in the United States in our portfolio, you know, there probably 4,000 to 5,000 sites that we've identified where we think that we can bring in several shelters into a -- into a site being able to offer up, you know, 20 to 30 cabs with a -- with a 100 to 300, 400 kilowatts of power. And -- and so, I think, we're uniquely positioned to be able to do this not just in the United States but -- but globally. But I do think it'll be, you know, start in the United States. But as I said, I think, our global reach really puts us in a unique position to be able to offer a high-value prop to potential customers.

Ric Prentiss -- Raymond James -- Analyst

That's great. Thanks, guys. Stay well and I look forward to the moment I can see you again in person.

Tom Bartlett -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Absolutely, Ric. You too.

Rod Smith -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer

Yeah, thanks. Thanks, Ric.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Simon Flannery. Please go ahead.

Simon Flannery -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Great. Thank you very much. Rod, could you just talk a little bit more about the balance of the Sprint churn? You said, $200 million in October 1. The other 175, do you have clarity on when that peels off? Is that in '22, '23? Any specifics around that would be great.

And then, Tom, maybe just come back to India if you could talk about pricing trends there and capital raising and the ability to maybe move past and return to more normal growth in '22 and beyond?

Rod Smith -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer

Sure.

Unknown speaker

Broadway is starting coming all --

Operator

Just a second.

Rod Smith -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer

Yeah, sounds good. So, good morning, Simon. So, the Sprint churn is expected to be around $375 million and that's an annualized number as I stated in the prepared remarks and in the last -- the last Q&A. We expect about $200 million of that annualized number or about 53% to roll -- roll up in Q4 2021.

The balance will be spread across 2022, '23, and '24 and, I guess, in broad percentages that you can think about 16% of that total $375 million rolling off in 2022, an additional 13% coming off in 2023, and then another 19% coming off in 2024 and then that'll be the end of the Sprint churn.

Simon Flannery -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

OK. Great. That's helpful. Thank you.

Tom Bartlett -- President and Chief Executive Officer

And then, you know, Simon, on India, you know, as Rod said and I alluded to as well, we continue to remain really positive on the market overall. It's a work in progress as you all know. We're looking at, you know, growth -- gross growth in the market, a double-digit. The challenge is the churn.

And -- and it's coming down on a year-over-year basis and we will -- it will continue to come down and that's what we need to be working on with our -- our carriers particularly Vodafone in the -- in the region. And -- and we are working on that as we speak. And so, over -- over the longer period of time, I would expect that churn to be coming down and for us to be early, be able to start to drive the positive net organic growth. I mean, if you take a look at our overall international markets, you know, we're growing 79% in Latin America, and Africa, Europe.

As I mentioned before and with -- with Ric, you know, we really see some nice growth, I think, that we're going to be experiencing there. So it is India, it is that focus on that particular market that we need to drive, that will bring up the overall, clearly, the growth rate in the international space and there are a number of things that have to happen in the marketplace which we see happening. They just don't happen very quickly. You know, clearly, the -- the government is committed to digital India -- to their digital India program.

I think the pandemic has made that even more obvious because, you know, so many Indians there are looking for telehealth services and they need that broadband connection. So, you know, everything that we're hearing, we're seeing is -- is really giving me even more and more comfort, that the government is going to be supporting the carriers to really being able to identify the overall network. And we're seeing that, we're seeing in the build programs, clearly, we're seeing that from -- from all of the three major carriers in the marketplace. We're starting to see price increases in the market, which I think is positive really power -- positive.

We're also seeing our -- our customers, in particular Vodafone, you know, looking to identify different areas to be able to infuse capital. I also just saw yesterday, from an AGR perspective, that the government is now relooking at some of the new calculations that -- that the carriers were being opposed on that they were going to have to pay over the next 10 years or so. So, again, I think that's just indicative of the fact that the -- the government very much wants, you know, each and every one of the carriers to survive and to participate to their own digitization that's going on within -- within the marketplace. But you know, we got more work to do.

We've got to work through the contract that we have in place particularly with Vodafone to try to nip the -- some of that churn. But as I said, we're seeing the growth in the marketplace which I think is what we've always seen is that opportunity. And so now, we need to work on that -- the churn, which is exactly what we're doing.

Simon Flannery -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Great. Thanks, Tom.

Tom Bartlett -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Pleasure, Simon.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Barden. Please go ahead.

David Barden -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Hey, guys, thanks so much for taking the question. I guess, Tom, it -- it wasn't too long ago that, you know, the same-store sales organic growth rate domestically was 6% and the belief that the international market would grow to 4% premium to that, you know, out of 10. And now, we have kind of a seven-year outlook, which thank you for that, for the U.S. to grow at 4% and for the international market to grow 2% more than that.

So, now it's at 6% And, I guess, the question then becomes -- two questions. One, can you just aggregate that 6% growth into organic growth, inflation-based escalators, and new builds relative to the U.S.? And then, can you desegregate it regionally with respect to, you know, which regions are going to be driving more than 6%? And, I guess, to your question -- you're going to answer to Simon's question is now, you know, maybe India is on the lower end of that 6% if that population is correct. Thank you so much.

Tom Bartlett -- President and Chief Executive Officer

OK. Hey, David. Well, thanks for that question. Let me -- let me take a -- I'll start it and then I'm sure Rod and either I might be able to fill in some of the pieces.

But as I talked about it, I mean, to be -- you're -- you're right we talked about kind of 6% to 8% kind of growth rate console -- on a consolidated basis. Right? If you -- if you go back a number of years. Now, we are twice the size of the business that we were back then. So, growth on a base of that size does get to be a little bit more challenging but if even take a look at the numbers that I laid out for the U.S., that this is just organic.

Right? And so, it's not -- it does not include the -- our built-to-suit programs in the United States. You know, the big -- big item there is -- is the Sprint churn. And so, that's why we kind of laid it out looking at the next couple of years. And then, even layering in on top of, OK, what would that growth look like perhaps without that Sprint churn.

And that's where it goes next couple of years being on average in the United States organically a couple of percent, but being up in that 5% range to the extent that we did not have it. And then, you go out longer-term '23 to '27 in the United States where, you know, would be greater or equal to 5% and then without a greater equal to 6%. So, it's kind of getting back and particularly if you didn't weigh in the fact that the business is so much bigger. You know, it's getting back to those ranges and -- and, you know, and we're looking at some of that growth coming from some of our platform extension issues but not -- not in any significant way.

I mean, it's largely from pure organic growth coming from our contractually committed master lease agreements that we have with our -- with our customers. You know, on the international side, we didn't necessarily come out with kind of long-term growth projections for them other than saying that you know we would expect it to be a couple of 100 basis points higher than what we're seeing in the United States. So, given that, you know, you would look at, you know, the '23 to '27 kind of average up in that 7%, 8% normalized without the kind of, you know, without the impact of the churn in the United States. So, you know, it's working really rather consistent with some of those growth rates that we laid out several years ago.

And as I said that, you know, we do have a -- a big -- a much bigger base of business. You know, what's also exciting though is on the build-to-suit program, you know, that's driving, you know, $10 million of new revenue for us each and every year. We do have, and I do expect as I mentioned, a kind of four sites on adding 40,000 to 50,000 new build-to-suits over the next five years. We set records kind of every month every year in terms of the building of these.

And you know, double-digit NOI, so it's a really good return of capital for us and with good tenants. So, it really provides upside to our overall growth rate that we expect going -- going forward. You know, with the -- with the -- the Telxius deal and the heavier European presence we're getting a little bit more of a presence in even the developed markets. And -- and I would expect, as I mentioned, I think it was to Ric, you know, that you know up 6% kind of growth rates.

You know, we're kind of being expected from my perspective in Germany and -- and, you know, I think. that there's really a lot of opportunities there. So again, just kind of stepping back, I don't think they're inconsistent with what we've said in the past. We are bigger business.

We did -- we do have a big Sprint churn event which will impact us over the next couple of years which is to no one's surprise kicking in really the fourth quarter here. We talked about that right out of the gate ended up being, you know, churn and that kind of four percentage range if you will of our -- of our business. And it really did land on that and, I think, we've been able to put in place a long-term contract with -- with T-Mobile who are really in a very good position from a spectrum perspective and a build from perspective. And I think, we're going to be very aggressive and -- and so given the kind of master lease agreement we have in place with them, you know, I'm -- I'm really excited about that kind of strategic relationship that we have with them to be able to explore new stuff and -- and new areas of business.

So, it's kind of a long rambling answer for a question but -- but I think it's pretty consistent.

David Barden -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

OK.

Rod Smith -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer

Yes. And Tom, maybe I'll just add a couple of -- David, maybe I just that a couple of quick points here. When you look at the -- the out years of the U.S. organic common billings growth number, the normalized to the Sprint churn, we say, you know, greater than or equal to 6% between 2023 and 2027.

When you get beyond that -- that big churn event in 2022. The high-level pieces of that we maintain at 3% escalator in our business. So, that's a piece of that 6%. We expect new business to drive 4% to 5% in that range and then churn outside of Sprint would be back down into that between 1% and 2%.

That's how you get to that 6% over that '23 to '27 timeframe.

David Barden -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

OK. Right. Thanks, Rod, and thanks, Tom. Appreciate it.

Rod Smith -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer

Thanks, Dave.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Nick Del Deo. Please go ahead.

Nick Del Deo -- MoffettNathanson LLC -- Analyst

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question.

Rod Smith -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer

Hey, Nick.

Nick Del Deo -- MoffettNathanson LLC -- Analyst

Hey. First one in Europe and then one in India. You know, in Europe, Orange is just talking about trying to get some other carriers that haven't sold their towers yet to kind of join forces and -- and kind of create a pan-European carrier control tower co, you know, maybe akin to what's happened in China. Now, obviously, a lot to happen for that to be realized but if it did, you know, do you feel like that would affect the growth outlook or appeal of European markets for independents like you?

Tom Bartlett -- President and Chief Executive Officer

No. You know, we -- we -- and by the way, Orange is a great customer of ours right now. We're doing a lot of business with -- with them. Candidly, we've -- we've, you know, seen captives working around the world including even in the United States back in -- back in the day.

And so, we've -- we've operated and we've seen the results and the impacts and I think in many -- in some cases, it bring some stability in certain -- certain respects. But -- but we wouldn't expect that to -- to impact growth rates at all.

Nick Del Deo -- MoffettNathanson LLC -- Analyst

OK. OK. And then, you know, India. You know, obviously, emphasis for you over the next decade is going to be new builds which is great to hear a lot of that's going to take place in India.

You've also been decommissioning a lot of sites in India over the last several years. I assume, you know, sites that are naked when the ground lease came up. Can you talk about that dynamic at all? How many more sites in India you think are left to be decommissioned and when we should start to see, you know, kind of aggregate tower growth in that market?

Tom Bartlett -- President and Chief Executive Officer

You know, we -- we do -- we evaluate that every month every year. And a lot of it is a function of the consolidation that's gone on in the marketplace over the last several years. And so, you know, when something like that happens we look at the sites we look at the opportunities to put new customers on -- on those sites and we evaluate them over, you know, a couple of year period to really gonna get a sense of whether there is an opportunity to -- to lease back up as you said kind of those naked sites. And so, I would expect that the consolidation churn -- what's happened in the market probably in the next couple of years to, you know, you will see those types of things.

You can't say -- it's relatively overall, relatively insignificant to the portfolio overall, but it is part of our just our normal impairment analysis that we -- we go through. And -- and as you well know with lease accounting it's not just the property itself, it's also the land itself that we're evaluating as well given the debts on the balance sheet.

Nick Del Deo -- MoffettNathanson LLC -- Analyst

OK. Got it. And, you know, maybe one -- one quickie if I can. You noted in expectation of the Australian dollar tax rate in your guidance.

Do you have something in the works in that market?

Tom Bartlett -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Actually, with the recent acquisition of Insight, we picked up some land. It's -- it's immaterial really but --

Nick Del Deo -- MoffettNathanson LLC -- Analyst

Oh, OK.

Tom Bartlett -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, we do now have -- yeah, we do now have some presence in -- in Australia. Minimal.

Nick Del Deo -- MoffettNathanson LLC -- Analyst

OK. OK, great. Thank you, Tom.

Tom Bartlett -- President and Chief Executive Officer

You bet.

Operator

And one moment please for your next question. Your next question comes from the line of Tim Horan. Please go ahead.

Tim Horan -- Oppenheimer & Co. Inc -- Analyst

Thanks, guys. On the AFFO per share growth of double-digit. I'm just having a tough time getting there. The last kind of few years have been growing organically and more like 7% EBITDA margin spin-off like 50 basis points a year.

Your interest expense has, you know, improved 100 basis points, you know, maybe a little bit more even. And you're talking about slower organic growth going forward. I mean, what are the other levers you can pull to get to that type of AFFO growth. I mean, do you think the interest expense can continue to improve and -- and will margin improvement acceleration here? Or any other color would be very helpful, thanks.

Tom Bartlett -- President and Chief Executive Officer

No, sure, Tim. Let me keep in mind, we've had huge FX headwinds, right? You know, if you even take a look at last year, it was like $0.25, $0.30. So we've had some huge FX headwinds going on. We do have, as Rod pointed out, you know, some M&A that's going to be kicking in in 2021 with Telxius and that will impact, you know, part of this year and then kick in largely in terms of 2022.

I also have a significant focus on our margin performance, you know. And I think, that there are a lot of really interesting opportunities for us to even further standardize and globalize some of our -- of our business. And so, I'm hopeful that we can even take our industry-leading margins to new levels. And so, you'll see even this coming year margin performance is up from last year.

And so, I would continue to expect margin improvement going forward. And then, there's just, you know, general operating leverage you know that will come. And so, we talked -- I think Rob mentioned the -- the increased flow through from revenue down to AFFO. So, we're hopeful that that will be a contributor.

And you know, even on our -- on our balance sheet, you know, we continue to look at ways from a maintenance perspective to -- to drive down our overall cost of borrowing. So, I do think that there are a number of different leverage there, Tim, that we'll be able to -- to drive that. And as I kind of said early on, and take a look at you know the last, I don't know, 10 years in terms of what we've -- we've done, you know, I think our record kind of speaks for itself in terms of the -- the underlying growth that we've been experiencing. Now, we're talking long terms, I mean, every year is going to be at those double-digit growth rates.

Well, I hope so. But you know, but -- but you can also have challenges from a year-to-year basis but -- but I'm very optimistic that we're going to be able to -- be able to drive those kinds of growth rates.

Rod Smith -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer

And can -- maybe just pulling out -- I'll add a couple of things. A quick point here on FX. The FX assumption that we have in that long-term plan is to hold the FX rates fairly steady to where they are now, you would mention that. We also expect rates to stay relatively low over that time period and I'd remind you that 80% of our debt is fixed.

So, very insulated from short-term movements in rates. We also have additional senior notes that we can continue to kind of pay down later, redeem early, and replace them with lower interest rate notes now and in the future assuming rates, you know, stay low. So, those are two of the pieces kind of at the -- at the -- put -- to put a finer point on FX and interest rates.

Tim Horan -- Oppenheimer & Co. Inc -- Analyst

That's helpful and thanks for the guidance through 2027. Are you implying or I guess do you have major MLA agreements in place through that timeframe for the most part?And do these agreements allow see band equipment to be put on the towers without any incremental payments or minimal incremental payments? Any more color around the MLAs would be great.

Tom Bartlett -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I mean the MLA, you know, I think -- I think, we've said in the past, I mean, they do cover through this -- this period of time. In relative, the fee band and technology and those types of things, Tim, I really do try to stay away from. I don't want to get into the -- the weeds on some of that activity. But -- but to answer your other question, yeah, MLAs agreements to cover through this period.

So, we have -- we do have some very good visibility into this. And I think, as Rod said, you know, two-thirds of the -- of the underlying growth there are -- are things that we actually see within the MLA themselves today.

Tim Horan -- Oppenheimer & Co. Inc -- Analyst

Thank you.

Tom Bartlett -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Sure.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Colby Synesael. Please go ahead.

Colby Synesael -- Cowen & Co. -- Analyst

Great. Thanks for fitting me in. You had mentioned equity raises, in that there's a variety of different ways in which you're looking at potentially doing that. Can you give us a sense of the total size of equity that you're looking to raise to support the acquisition of TelxiusM And then, secondly, when you think about your leverage target, how much room do you still have left in 2021 for things like buybacks or M&A or should we really kind of push those out in terms of expectations for -- for 2010 and beyond?

Rod Smith -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer

Thanks, Colby. This is Rod. I'll -- I'll take that and something add-in. So, I think, I'll start just by just reminding everyone we ended the year with leverage at about five times.

That is that at the top of our stated financial policy of three to five times. When it comes to healthiest and financing, the healthiest acquisitions, of course, we expect to do that in a manner that's consistent with maintaining our investment-grade credit rating. That's always been important to us it continues to be very important to us. And we've been engaged in a variety of fronts here since we announced that deal in terms of preparing some financing.

The first thing I would note is we do have that committed bridge led by Bank of America. We've gone further and indicated that's so we have that in place as a backstop. You've also seen us in the -- in the debt markets here in terms of the bank facilities we upsized a couple of our result -- revolvers. We also entered into a new term loan that Euro denominated, that's about $1.9 billion value.

So, we've got, you know, increased liquidity from that perspective. We did end 2022 with about $4.5 billion for almost $4.9 billion of liquidity and these are additive to that to prepare for the closings. One thing that we are comfortable with doing we've been working with the rating agencies, we've been doing a lot of internal analysis and we're comfortable increasing our leverage to the high five times as and when we close the healthiest deal, and then we'll -- we'll be committing to the levering back into within our financial policies over -- over a couple of year time period. So, you will see us with higher leverage probably for an extended time period.

And I'll let you do the math gold in terms of what that might mean in terms of how much we'll raise from debt to actually execute on the healthiest transactions. The balance of the purchase price that will remain, we'll look at a number of different equity sources, we're looking at public equity, we're looking at mandatory converts, and we're also looking at private capital and we're doing a lot of different analysis. Around that and we'll make the best decisions for our shareholders in terms of maximizing total shareholder return, maximizing AFFO per share growth, and -- and also looking to help make sure that we have a really strong balance sheet as we go into the future so we can continue to grow. So, when you think about that, one of the things we've done is we've looked very hard at raising private capital.

We've done a lot of work there, we're continuing to be engaged with just a small number of very large premier investors around the world and we maintain a high level of confidence and that -- that could be a very attractive vehicle for our shareholders. So we're continuing to explore that. And we'll -- we'll make the -- the decisions kind of along the way. And I would say when you think about private capital we are in our analysis in the way we're thinking about it we would be selling minority stakes in our European business.

It's not really related to the Telxius transaction specifically. It's the entire European business that we would look to finance potentially by adding some private capital in there. And in terms of the mix, how much private capital versus how much public equity, we'll be making those decisions here over the coming weeks and months as we kind of work through the analysis and get close to the closing. Did that hit all your points, Colby?

Colby Synesael -- Cowen & Co. -- Analyst

Yeah. Thank you.

Rod Smith -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer

Great. Great. Well, thank you everybody for joining. I think that'll do it for this morning.

Appreciate you joining, everyone.

Operator

[Operator signoff]

Duration: 88 minutes

Call participants:

Igor Khislavsky -- Vice President, Investor Relations

Tom Bartlett -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Rod Smith -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer

Brett Feldman -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Michael Rollins -- Citigroup -- Analyst

Ric Prentiss -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Simon Flannery -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Unknown speaker

David Barden -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Nick Del Deo -- MoffettNathanson LLC -- Analyst

Tim Horan -- Oppenheimer & Co. Inc -- Analyst

Colby Synesael -- Cowen & Co. -- Analyst

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