If you think that 2019 has been a year full of twists and turns for marijuana stocks, just wait. There's plenty of action remaining to be seen in the last two months of the year. And there are several big events happening this month.
Three top marijuana stocks you'll definitely want to watch closely in November are Canopy Growth (CGC -3.01%), Cronos Group (CRON 0.81%), and Cresco Labs (CRLBF -5.34%). Here's what's right around the corner for these three stocks.
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1. Canopy Growth
The biggest pot stock of them all is scheduled to announce its fiscal 2020 second-quarter results on Nov. 14. And based on the recent quarterly results for its peers, Canopy Growth's upcoming update could be very interesting.
Aurora Cannabis whiffed on its sales predictions with its Q4 update in September. HEXO caused many marijuana stocks to sink with its preliminary warning about its Q4 results and delivered results as bad as its warning. Therefore, there's likely to be significant skepticism as Canopy steps up to the plate 10 days from now.
One key thing to look for is Canopy's market share growth, or lack thereof, in its fiscal second quarter. The company lost some market share to rivals in the previous quarter. However, Canopy's increased supply in Q2 could help improve its market share.
Most investors, including a really big Canopy Growth shareholder -- Constellation Brands, will focus primarily on Canopy's progress toward eventual profitability. I don't have lofty expectations on this front, but any significant progress could light a fire beneath the stock.
2. Cronos Group
Cronos Group announces its fiscal 2019 Q3 results two days before Canopy's quarterly update. Will it be the canary in the coal mine? Maybe, but Cronos' situation is a lot different than that of Canopy Growth.
The headlines for Cronos in Q2 trumpeted that the company blew past analysts' estimates. It was only able to beat bottom-line expectations, however, because of a huge revaluation of its warrants held by tobacco giant Altria. And while Cronos handily topped analysts' revenue estimates, it brought in a grand total of 10.2 million in Canadian dollars. That's not an impressive haul.
You can pretty much count on Cronos to have another big boost to its bottom line from those Altria warrants. But that "good news" will be due to the continued drop in Cronos stock.
The key thing to watch with Cronos is its performance in the Canadian medical cannabis and adult-use recreational marijuana markets. CFO Jerry Barbato said in the company's Q2 conference call, "We expect the momentum for quarter-over-quarter revenue growth to build in the second half of the year as we ramp up production in our facilities and increase third-party purchases." We'll soon find out if that momentum is truly building.
3. Cresco Labs
There are other companies in the cannabis industry announcing results in November (Charlotte's Web and Tilray especially stand out on the list). But I suggest also keeping your eyes on another development: Cresco Labs should soon complete its pending acquisition of Origin House (ORHOF).
The antitrust waiting period for the transaction has expired. Cresco and Origin House extended the date to complete the acquisition until Nov. 15, 2019. Unless there's another extension for some reason, it's about to be a done deal.
I've liked Origin House for quite a while. The company is the leading distributor of cannabis products in the enormously important California market. It has also built up its own line of brands, in addition to reaping the rewards from its earlier investments as a cannabis royalty streaming company.
My colleague Sean Williams projects that Cresco will outsell all of the Canadian cannabis producers in 2020. I think that Sean's right and view the Origin House deal that should close any day now as enormously important for the company's long-term prospects.
