Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

This Could Be a New Billion-Dollar Market for Moderna

By Adria Cimino - Apr 3, 2021 at 6:00AM

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

We're looking at 15% of the U.S. population.

In this Motley Fool Live video recorded on March 26, healthcare and cannabis bureau chief Corinne Cardina and contributor Adria Cimino discuss Moderna's (MRNA 4.12%) coronavirus vaccine trial in kids -- and what that population may mean for revenue.

Corinne Cardina: Let's talk a little bit about Moderna. Some exciting news, especially for people who have young children. Moderna is now testing its vaccine in the pediatric population. It just announced that it has dosed its first participants in a phase 2/3 study that is planning to enroll almost 7,000 healthy kids, younger than age 12. It's being conducted in partnership with several government agencies, including agencies that fall under the National Institutes of Health and the Department of Health and Human Services. Is Moderna the only company testing on kids, and what is the potential market opportunity in the pediatric vaccination landscape?

Adria Cimino: We've actually seen a lot of action here in just the past few weeks. Moderna was the first to announce this study in children ages 6 months through 11 years old. Just recently, Pfizer (PFE 0.50%) announced a trial in the same age group. Pfizer's a couple of weeks behind, I would say, but they are really running on the same schedule. Also, Moderna and Pfizer are both doing a teen trial, and they're both fully enrolled. They're both making progress there as well. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ -0.89%) plans to do a study in teens, and then after that, in younger kids, but they haven't started that yet. But we can keep an eye out for that. That maybe will be soon. AstraZeneca (AZN 1.93%) also started a trial in February, I believe, in ages 6 through 17. They're also working on younger age groups. Now, as far as the latest trial from Moderna, the actually the really young kids, this is a big market opportunity. Fifteen percent of the U.S. population is under 12. That's about 48 million individuals. If we do the math on it according to how much Moderna is charging the U.S., we can say that Moderna can make $1.5 billion in sales on this particular group of individuals. Of course, that's just the U.S., it's not even counting other countries. It's definitely something that would be very interesting for the company. Now, there's an importance of getting kids vaccinated. I know a lot of the severe cases of COVID, of course, have been older people and a lot of children are asymptomatic and we say it doesn't infect them very much. But this is really a step to reaching herd immunity. The idea that we need at least between 60%, people say between 60% and 90% of the population -- experts are saying probably about 70% of the population to be either vaccinated or have been exposed to the virus, been sick. This is really an essential step to get these kids vaccinated. Of course, as far as transmission, there's no proof that vaccination prevents asymptomatic transmission. But the idea is if fewer people are sick, it reduces the amount of viral shedding into the environment, people coughing and sneezing. It's more of an opportunity -- more of a risk for other people to get COVID when there's more viral shedding into the community. The idea of vaccinating children is going to cut down on that risk as well.

Invest Smarter with The Motley Fool

Join Over 1 Million Premium Members Receiving…

  • New Stock Picks Each Month
  • Detailed Analysis of Companies
  • Model Portfolios
  • Live Streaming During Market Hours
  • And Much More
Get Started Now

Stocks Mentioned

Moderna, Inc. Stock Quote
Moderna, Inc.
$143.38 (4.12%) $5.67
Pfizer Inc. Stock Quote
Pfizer Inc.
$50.65 (0.50%) $0.25
Johnson & Johnson Stock Quote
Johnson & Johnson
$173.94 (-0.89%) $-1.56
AstraZeneca PLC Stock Quote
AstraZeneca PLC
$64.54 (1.93%) $1.22

*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.

Related Articles

Motley Fool Returns

Motley Fool Stock Advisor

Market-beating stocks from our award-winning service.

Stock Advisor Returns
S&P 500 Returns

Calculated by average return of all stock recommendations since inception of the Stock Advisor service in February of 2002. Returns as of 05/19/2022.

Discounted offers are only available to new members. Stock Advisor list price is $199 per year.

Premium Investing Services

Invest better with The Motley Fool. Get stock recommendations, portfolio guidance, and more from The Motley Fool's premium services.