What happened
Week to date, shares of Canada Goose Holdings (GOOS 1.17%) were down 12% through Thursday's close, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence. Another quarter of growth wasn't enough to turn the stock around this time. Year to date, Canada Goose shares are down 56%, but as disruptions in China continue, it's unclear how soon the stock might recover.
So what
Canada Goose beat Wall Street's revenue and earnings estimates in the quarter. However, weakness in China is controlling the sentiment around the stock. China's COVID-19-related restrictions and their impact on sales caused management to cut the full-year revenue outlook by $100 million. Revenue is now expected in the range of $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion, up from $1.1 billion last year.
On the bright side, demand in North America and the wholesale channel were strong. Management attributed a strong wholesale performance to its ability to fulfill orders earlier in the season and higher unit sales and price increases in Europe.
North American demand was driven by the direct-to-consumer channel, which accelerated beyond the typical level of demand this time of year.
Now what
Apparel stocks are going to fall in a bear market regardless of company performance, but the strongest brands inevitably rebound in bull markets. The stock now trades at a modest price-to-earnings ratio of 15, which looks more attractive than its year-ago multiple of over 40.
Most importantly, the company is delivering profitable growth in the quarter, with adjusted operating margin exceeding expectations. As long as the company maintains its margin stability, the stock will eventually recover. But the stock may not deliver meaningful gains off of these lows until there is growth in China, and the way things are going there, that may not happen until next year.
