Shares of Apple (AAPL 0.52%) and Alphabet (GOOG -1.96%) (GOOGL -1.97%) moved in opposite directions after their latest earnings reports. Apple's stock jumped nearly 8% on Oct. 28 after it soundly beat Wall Street's expectations, but Alphabet's stock tumbled 9% on Oct. 26 after it broadly missed analysts' expectations on both the top and bottom lines.
Apple's stock has still declined 12% this year as of this writing, but Alphabet fared much worse with a 34% drop. Let's see why Apple outperformed Alphabet by such a wide margin and if it will remain the better bear market buy.
Image source: Apple.
The key differences between Apple and Alphabet
Apple generated 79% of its revenue in its latest quarter by selling iPhones, iPads, Macs, and other hardware products and accessories. The remaining 21% came from its Services business, which houses its App Store and subscription-based services. It ended fiscal 2022 (which ended in September) with over 900 million subscribers across all of its services.
Alphabet generated 79% of its revenue in its latest quarter from Google's advertising business, which houses the ads from its core search engine, its advertising network, and YouTube. The rest of Alphabet's revenue came from Google's Cloud platform (10% of its revenues), its subscription-based services, hardware products, and other smaller businesses.
Apple's hardware business faced supply chain constraints throughout the first nine months of fiscal 2022, but that pressure eased in the fourth quarter. It was also affected by intermittent COVID-19 lockdowns in China, but its sales in the Greater China area (19% of its fiscal 2022 revenue) still increased nearly 9% for the full year.
Alphabet's main challenge is the slowdown of the digital advertising market. Its ad sales had recovered quickly from the pandemic in 2021, but inflation, rising rates, and other macro headwinds all caused companies to buy fewer ads this year. YouTube, which suffered its first year-over-year revenue decline last quarter, also struggled to keep pace with ByteDance's TikTok in the short video market. Google's Cloud business continued to grow, but it couldn't fully offset its slower ad sales.
Which tech giant is growing faster?
Apple's revenue rose 33% to $365.8 billion in fiscal 2021, driven by robust sales of the iPhone 12 (its first family of 5G devices), while its EPS surged 71%. Its growth cooled off in fiscal 2022 as it lapped those 5G upgrades and it faced persistent supply chain headwinds, but its revenue still increased 8% to $394.3 billion as its EPS rose 9%. Analysts expect its revenue and earnings to grow 4% and 5%, respectively, this year.
Those growth rates might not seem impressive, but they don't factor in any new devices -- including its long-rumored AR (augmented reality) headsets -- or services that Apple might launch in 2023. Apple ended fiscal 2022 with $169 billion in cash and marketable securities, so it could still easily expand into new markets with big investments and acquisitions.
Alphabet's revenue rose 41% to $257.6 billion in 2021 as its advertising business posted a strong post-pandemic recovery. Its EPS also increased a whopping 91%. But in the first nine months of 2022, its revenue only grew 13% year over year to $206.8 billion (and decelerated throughout all three quarters) as its EPS declined 14%. Analysts expect its revenue to rise 10% this year but for its earnings to decrease 15%.
That slowdown can be entirely attributed to the market's softening demand for digital ads. Its overseas revenues are also being gobbled up by a strong dollar, which could continue to strengthen as interest rates continue to rise. Nevertheless, analysts expect Alphabet's revenue and earnings to grow 9% and 14%, respectively, as some of those headwinds dissipate.
Alphabet ended the third quarter with $22 billion in cash and equivalents, which also gives it ample room for fresh investments and acquisitions. But for now, Alphabet plans to rein in its spending until its core advertising business recovers.
The valuations and verdict
Apple's stock outperformed Alphabet's this year because its core business seemed more resistant to the macro headwinds. But at 24 times forward earnings, Apple's stock looks a bit pricey relative to its near-term growth. Alphabet trades at just 17 times forward earnings, but that lower valuation suggests that investors aren't too optimistic about its future.
I own both of these stocks, and I think they're still great long-term investments. But if I had to buy more shares of one of these stocks right now, I'd pick Apple instead of Alphabet because its near-term growth is more predictable, it's better insulated from the macroeconomic headwinds, and it's widely expected to roll out new products and services -- which the market probably hasn't fully priced in yet -- in 2023 and beyond. Alphabet's stock might seem cheaper, but it probably won't command a higher valuation until the broader digital advertising market recovers.
