The tech industry has been working through a glut of PC (personal computer) and smartphone inventories since the second half of 2022. Following a massive upgrade cycle fueled by the work-from-home movement in late 2020 through 2021, the chip shortage loosened up last year just in time for consumer demand to cool off (inflation being but one reason for this). 

PC makers responded by reducing shipments to retail partners until the excess inventory was reduced by consumer purchasing. One standout winner during this mess last year was Apple (AAPL 2.48%), but it appears the downturn finally came for the iPhone and Mac company.

Does this mean it's time to sell Apple stock? 

Apple Macs plunge more than peers?

According to data from tech research firm IDC, global PC shipments in first-quarter 2023 fell a whopping 29% year over year to 56.9 million. This isn't just a dip below COVID-era highs (80.2 million global PC shipments in Q1 2022, and over 90 million global shipments during the fourth-quarter holiday shopping frenzy of 2021 and 2020). If IDC's preliminary Q1 2023 figures are correct, 56.9 million PCs would represent a 4% decline from 59.2 million shipments in Q1 2019, and a 6% decline from 60.6 million PCs in Q1 2018.

Indeed, this is a steep pullback from the rampant consumer tech spending spree over the last couple of years.

But what may be especially concerning for investors is to see Apple PCs (like Macs and MacBook laptops) fall precipitously, at least according to IDC. The research company's preliminary estimate is that Q1 2023 Apple Mac shipments plunged 40% year over year to just 4.1 million units. That's a far steeper drop than the other top PC makers on the list: Lenovo, HP, Dell Technologies, and ASUS.  

Don't panic just yet

There's a caveat to Apple's PC shipments plunging far more than its peers, though. Macs and MacBooks are premium personal computers, but people are still willing to shell out the extra cash for the Apple emblem. According to IDC's estimates, Apple still commands the No. 4 spot as far as global PC market share goes, behind Lenovo, HP, and Dell.  

Apple's market share of Q1 2023 PC shipments was 7.2%. Though that's down from its low-teens percentage market share high reached at points in 2022, Apple is nevertheless holding on to its progress. In Q1 2019, before the pandemic started, Apple was in the No. 5 position in market share. At that time, it only shipped 3.9 million Macs and MacBooks, according to IDC estimates, giving it a global PC market share of only 6.6%.

Quarter-to-quarter shipments can be noisy and distracting. Thus, though Apple PC revenue might be in for some pain when the next quarter's financials are released (the report comes out May 4, 2023), it appears that Apple is still selling more PCs than it was pre-pandemic -- and commanding greater leadership than it was four years ago. If you own Apple stock, there's no need to panic. 

The market saw this coming already

There's another reason to keep it cool: We already knew Apple Mac and MacBook sales were getting hit pretty hard. 

During the last earnings call in February 2023 (for the three-month period ended December 2022), Apple said Mac revenue had fallen 29% year over year to $7.74 billion. The reason, besides a hard-hit global consumer, was a tough comparison to the year prior thanks to the MacBook Pros featuring the brand new in-house designed Apple M-series chip. Apple is now on its second-gen M2 chip, but that isn't having the same dramatic upside as the initial M-series processor release.  

Apple CFO Luca Maestri also said to expect Mac revenue to fall by a year-over-year double-digit percentage again in the first few months of 2023, for similar reasons to last quarter. No surprises, then, at IDC's ugly-looking estimates.

It's also worth remembering that the iPhone matters most. iPhone sales made up 56% of Apple revenue at the end of 2022. And regardless of what devices are selling (iPhones, Macs, iPads, Watch, etc.), Apple keeps expanding its total "installed base" of devices in operation, which is the fuel that keeps its stable-growth "services" segment headed higher. Apple said it had reached over 2 billion devices in its installed base during the final months of 2022, double the figure seven years ago.

Apple stock has rallied 23% so far in 2023, and is just 12% off all-time highs reached a little over a year ago. If you're an Apple shareholder, there's no reason to panic-sell the stock now.