Apple's (AAPL -0.35%) upcoming product, the first new device category launch since the Apple Watch was announced in 2014, was no closely held secret. Rumors have been abundant about development of a virtual reality (VR) or mixed reality headset -- a medium that would bring users into the so-called metaverse, or a 3D rendering of the internet. The wait is over. Vision Pro has been revealed.
The only problem is it won't be available until 2024, and it carries a hefty price tag of $3,499. Facebook parent Meta Platforms (META 0.43%) likely feels safe with its own new headset announcement, the Quest 3, available later in 2023 for $499.
Nevertheless, Meta's efforts to date haven't set off widespread adoption of the metaverse. Could Apple's VR headset reignite the buzz?
Apple's long road to Vision Pro
Apple product fans have had to wait a long time since a brand new type of device was introduced. It's been over eight years since Beats Electronics and Beats Music were acquired, and the Apple Watch made its debut.
Data source: Apple. Image by author.
Over this span of time, Apple's power as a superior investment hasn't diminished, but revenue growth has certainly slowed.
Data by YCharts.
The timing of Vision Pro is thus timely, and not just because Apple needs another product to fuel growth. The world has changed drastically in the last few years, and digital work and play are now a ubiquitous part of daily life. Thus the desire (from some) for the metaverse, which creates a 3D digital experience that mimics the real world, rather than requiring users to bounce from one screen to another throughout the day.
But in the aftermath of the pandemic, there's been pushback against the metaverse and total immersion in digital experiences. Where Meta has failed to gain widespread acceptance, Apple hopes to propel VR to the next level -- much like it did for the smartphone industry in 2007. Vision Pro aims to do this by allowing users to choose how "immersed" they are -- from a camera-based portrayal of the space they are in filled in with apps, to a full virtually rendered environment of their choosing.
Apple gets some help from partners
Video games and entertainment are often the gateway to VR, and Apple is taking a similar approach here. The company showed off how Vision Pro emulates a big screen TV for viewing photos, videos, and TV and movie content. There will also be a new App Store specifically for Vision Pro,
Disney (DIS -0.04%) CEO Bob Iger also joined the event to talk up the device. Disney+ will be available on Vision Pro at product launch, as well as interactive content built using Disney's sizable library of IP (from classic Disney animation to Star Wars to the Marvel superhero universe).
And on the video game front, Vision Pro developers can tap into video game and 3D content creation platform Unity Software (U 3.47%). Shares of Unity rocketed more than 20% higher on the announcement. Unity's business has been dealing with issues in recent years, so the partnership was viewed as a positive development for the software company.
Apple says other companies are developing 3D apps for Vision Pro for play and work, including Microsoft's Office work suite and Adobe's creativity, design, and content editing software.
The Apple advantage
Many of the features on Vision Pro aren't exactly new. Meta has already released some sort of iteration of most of the capabilities on Apple's headset. In fact, one could argue that Vision Pro's need to remain plugged in throughout the day, or rely on a battery that provides only up to two hours of use, is a serious hindrance. Meta's current-gen headset, Quest 2, has been rated at two to three hours of battery life (Quest 3 battery life details haven't been released yet).
Nevertheless, though Meta has more than 3.8 billion monthly active users via its social media apps (Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp), that hasn't translated to widespread headset sales. Apple, on the other hand, has a global installed base of more than 2 billion devices in operation.
And therein lies the real Apple advantage, in my opinion. Apple users are fans, they're locked into a large ecosystem of existing devices spanning PCs to phones to earbuds and watches, and they regularly refresh these devices with a new purchase. An increasing number of businesses are adopting Apple hardware too. It wouldn't take many of these devoted fans and businesses making a Vision Pro purchase to jump-start a successful new device segment for Apple -- especially not when each headset costs $3,499 a pop!
At full price, it would take only 1.9 million Vision Pro sales to match revenue from the iPad last quarter (Apple reportedly shipped about 10.8 million iPads in Q1 calendar year 2023, bringing in revenue of $6.67 billion).
But will Vision Pro rekindle the metaverse buzz? Probably not at its steep price point. Vision Pro could be a nice profitable addition to the Apple family that can reward shareholders, but the world still feels years away from mainstream mixed reality device adoption. For now, this seems like a virtual experience for a select group of early adopters, more than a watershed moment like the iPhone was.
