Novavax (NVAX 3.54%) soared early in the coronavirus vaccine race. The stock climbed more than 2,700% in 2020.

But as the biotech company fell behind in the race, so did its shares. Novavax launched a vaccine -- but about a year after rivals Pfizer and Moderna, so it lost out on lots of the initial early pandemic revenue.

Today, it may look like all three companies are on equal footing. They each are preparing potential vaccines targeting the latest coronavirus variant -- with the goal of launching products for the upcoming fall vaccination season. This is positive. Still, there's one thing bears know about Novavax that bulls don't.

The bull case

First, let's talk about the bull case. Novavax is on track to provide an updated vaccine this fall. And the company is the only one to offer a protein-based vaccine. Both Pfizer and Moderna sell messenger RNA vaccines.

Some people may prefer going with a vaccine that uses the older, more established technology of a protein-based vaccine. And that could boost the use of Novavax's product.

Novavax also is developing a combined coronavirus and flu candidate and has reported positive phase 2 data. If the program is successful, this could be a big product a few years from now.

Finally, Novavax shares have dropped nearly 80% over the past year. That's left the stock trading at 0.5 times sales, down from more than 4.5 times sales a year ago. The bulls see this as an opportunity to get in on Novavax for a bargain.

But here's what the bears know. Demand for Novavax's vaccine hasn't been robust. Yes, Pfizer and Moderna did get a head start in the market. But unvaccinated people or those needing a booster haven't rushed out to specifically get a Novavax shot.

So far, about 89,000 Novavax doses have been administered in the U.S. Let's compare that to the updated boosters of Pfizer and Moderna, since they launched more recently than the original vaccines. Healthcare workers have administered about 36 million Pfizer boosters and 20 million Moderna boosters.

A value trap?

All of this shows Novavax so far hasn't stood out among its rivals. The bears know this and are wary about Novavax picking up a great deal of market share during the fall vaccination season. That suggests Novavax shares aren't necessarily cheap right now -- and instead could be a value trap.

It's also important to note that Novavax has been worried about its future. The company early last month announced a restructuring plan that involves cutting about 25% of the global workforce. The company said its plan should cut research and general expenses by as much as 50% next year, compared to 2022.

This aggressive effort could be what Novavax needs to halt cash burn and make its way toward profitability. But it may not bring the enormous gains some expect.

For instance, using the percent change formula, we can see Wall Street forecasts a more than a 170% increase for Novavax stock in the coming 12 months. The shares are trading for about $8 today, and the average analyst price target is $22. As mentioned above, this looks very optimistic, considering the challenges Novavax faces right now.

What does this mean for investors? Unless you're a high-risk investor, you're better off avoiding Novavax right now. Instead, it's a good idea to keep this biotech player on your watch list and wait for two things.

First, I'd like to see trends in general coronavirus vaccine demand this fall -- and see if Novavax can gain share. Second, I'll be looking for signs in upcoming earnings reports that the cost-cutting efforts are bearing fruit. Until then, it's a good idea to stick with the bears when it comes to this biotech stock.