Mattel (MAT -0.60%) stock has climbed 20% this year. Despite today's tough economic environment, the toy maker has managed to increase market share and confirm the strength of its top brands, such as Barbie. And speaking of the world's most famous doll, she's about to hit the big screen in her very own live-action movie.
The movie, Barbie, is set for release on July 21. Meanwhile, Mattel has been increasing its promotional activities to get everyone excited about the event -- and the doll.
Though Mattel shares have gained this year, they're still far from the record highs of about a decade ago. Could the new movie be the catalyst Mattel stock needs to return to those levels?
Image source: Mattel.
Barbie, the doll
First, let's talk about Barbie, the doll. She's won over kids for decades with her fun accessories and clothing -- and the world Mattel has built for her. I'm talking about everything from the hair salon and Dreamhouse to Barbies reflecting the kids and adults around us. Earlier this year, Mattel released its first Barbie with Down syndrome "to allow even more children to see themselves in Barbie," the company said.
This strategy has worked. Barbie today is the No. 1 doll worldwide, according to consumer research firm Circana. And Mattel isn't just counting on Barbie appealing to children: Adults also love Barbie. (As someone who wouldn't dream of giving away her Barbie collection, I can tell you this firsthand.)
It's no surprise, then, that Mattel supported the idea of a Barbie movie that doesn't target kids, the main audience for Barbie dolls. After all, the movie Barbie is rated PG-13 in the U.S.
Mattel said in its first-quarter earnings call that the Barbie brand continues to hold a lot of potential, thanks to the core audience of children who play with the doll -- and the older audience who collect Barbies.
The youngest Barbie fans won't be rushing to theaters later this month. But many of the former kids who played with Barbie might -- and they also might then buy merchandise from clothing to dolls inspired by the movie. A quick look at Mattel Creations -- the company's e-commerce platform targeting collectors -- shows that certain items linked to the movie already are sold out.
Mattel said any licensing opportunities are all margin accretive. This means they'll gradually add to the profit that the company makes from its intellectual property.
Top 3 brands
It's clear Barbie, the movie, could result in a sales boost for Mattel. But could it truly be a game changer for the stock?
Barbie is a major product at Mattel. It's one of the company's top three brands along with Hot Wheels and Fisher-Price. But it's still key to look at the company as a whole -- and not just focus on one brand.
In the most recent earnings report, Mattel's revenue fell as toy retailers struggled with inventory levels. Retailers started the year with too much inventory -- and this meant they didn't order more items from toy makers. Higher costs also hurt Mattel's bottom line.
These are temporary challenges, though. It's important to look at Mattel through a long-term lens -- and when you do, the view is brighter. Even though earnings have come down from a peak, they've generally grown over the past few years. Return on invested capital also has increased, showing Mattel's investments are paying off.
MAT Return on Invested Capital data by YCharts.
Mattel buys back shares
The company also recently began repurchasing its own shares for the first time in nine years. This is a clear sign that Mattel is confident about its future. The company says it will buy back more shares this year. Its current authorization allows for buybacks of $169 million.
Meanwhile, the stock is trading for only 14 times forward earnings estimates. This looks cheap considering the company's earnings track record -- and prospects, thanks to its strong portfolio of brands.
That brings us back to Barbie, the top brand. Barbie, the movie, won't be a game changer for Mattel by itself. The stock isn't likely to soar overnight and reach its peak levels.
But the movie could offer revenue a lift -- and amid today's vast selection of toys, it could help Barbie stand out. So, Barbie may add to Mattel's positive long-term picture. And that means right now may be a great time to get in on this top consumer goods stock.
