Once upon a time, Alphabet (GOOGL +0.56%) (GOOG +0.48%) seemed invulnerable. The company maintained an insurmountable position in search and parlayed its supremacy into a pole position in the digital search market -- and no rival even came close.
Over the past several years, however, even while its search continued to dominate, it appeared Google's share of the digital advertising market had been slipping -- slowly and gradually -- but falling nonetheless. In testimony during the company's federal antitrust trial, Google executives begrudgingly admitted what many have suggested for some time: Some of the company's newest rivals are stealing market share.
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Losing market share
In federal court on Tuesday, Google's Vice President and General Manager of Advertising Jerry Dischler testified, "We are losing share to other new entrants," which includes up-and-coming rival Amazon (AMZN 0.78%). "I would not say Google search ads are a must-have for any advertiser," he said.
This is in stark contrast to what investors have come to expect. Google and Meta Platforms' (META +0.14%) Facebook have long been the undisputed champions of digital advertising. Estimates differ, but as recently as 2017, the duopoly accounted for as much as 73% of all digital advertising in the U.S., while also capturing as much as 83% of growth in the industry.
By 2022, however, Google and Meta accounted for just 48% of U.S. digital-ad spending, the first time the pair had fallen below 50% since 2014, according to Insider Intelligence (per The Wall Street Journal). Overall, growth in the digital advertising market slowed last year, up roughly 11%, according to the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB).
However, the growth wasn't evenly distributed, and individual company results were telling. In 2022, Google's ad revenue grew just 7% year over year -- slower than the overall industry. Meta Platforms fared even worse, as advertising revenue declined by 1%. During the same period, however, Amazon's digital ad revenue grew 21% year over year, outpacing the broader industry and suggesting it was stealing market share from its rivals.
The admission by Google confirms the company may be losing its edge. But the sky isn't falling.
NASDAQ: GOOGL
Key Data Points
A shifting landscape
Several factors were at play that contributed to Google's loss of market share. The economic downturn was one of the biggest contributors to its decline last year.
It's well-documented that businesses look for ways to reduce spending during financially challenging times. Advertising is a category that's easy to scale back or ramp up on short notice, dictated by market conditions. Marketers cutting back on ad spending last year no doubt weighed on Google's results.
Furthermore, Amazon's e-commerce site provides a rich source of user data, which helps improve the results of targeted advertising. The company can deliver ads to consumers at or near the time of purchase, showing shoppers precisely what they're looking for, which helps improve conversion. When advertisers are limiting their ad spending, they want the most bang for their buck, giving Amazon a temporary edge.
Should Alphabet investors be worried?
Even as competition has ramped up, Alphabet has continued to thrive. Over the past five years, revenue has grown by 121%, and net income is up 100% -- even when factoring in the worst economic conditions since 2008. At the same time, Alphabet's share price is up 132% (as of this writing), more than triple Amazon's 43% gains.
That's not to say that Google can ignore Amazon, as the company would do so at its peril. However, as economic conditions continue to improve, ad spending will return to historical norms, with Alphabet reaping the benefits. Furthermore, as its historical results suggest, Alphabet can continue to generate robust growth, even in the face of growing competition.
