Once a relatively unknown biotech company, Moderna (MRNA 1.69%) became a household name when it became one of the first companies to offer a vaccine for the COVID-19 virus. At its peak, Moderna saw quarterly revenue of $7 billion as it sold vaccines to the world. Its stock price followed suit, reaching an all-time high of $484 in mid-2021.

As we enter the fourth quarter of 2023, times have changed for Moderna. Revenue in Q2 of 2023 was only $344 million, and the stock price is currently around $100.

But none of this was unexpected. It was clear that once the pandemic receded, vaccine-driven revenue would slow until Moderna was able to bring more products to market. In fact, this pipeline of potential vaccines and therapeutics is exactly what should have investors excited for the future.

COVID-19 revenue will remain

Through the first two quarters of 2023, Moderna has generated $2.2 billion of revenue, the vast majority of which is from its COVID-19 vaccine because that's the company's only commercially available product. Due to the expected uptick in vaccine sales this fall and winter, the company is projecting full-year revenue to be between $6 billion and $8 billion. This means the majority of 2023 revenue is yet to be recognized.

It's important to know that while revenue is expected to increase sequentially, it's likely to appear as a year-over-year decrease due to difficult comparable quarters in 2022. Moderna generated $3.4 billion in the third quarter of 2022, and $5.1 billion in the fourth.

It's likely that the company will still see revenue from COVID-19 vaccines in future quarters. It has been updating its formulations against newer strains of the virus and people continue to go for new doses, as they do for yearly flu shots.

What's next for Moderna?

Moderna's pipeline of products has doubled since 2020. As of this month, the company has 43 programs under development, including 5 in phase 3 trials. It expects four of these products to launch by 2025, and up to 15 to potentially launch within the next five years.

Note that nothing is guaranteed, and even some of the products in phase 3 trials -- the final step before approval -- could end up not making it to market. Also, three of the products in phase 3 trials are a next-generation COVID vaccine, an influenza vaccine, and a flu/COVID combination vaccine. While these may have a reasonable chance of gaining approval, considering the success of Moderna's original COVID vaccine, they'll face a lot of competition from other companies with similar offerings.

It appears that Moderna is also expecting approval of its RSV vaccine; it has started pre-launch activity, and begun manufacturing the product. Slightly further down the road is Moderna's individualized neoantigen therapy (INT), a collaboration with Merck (MRK 0.37%). INT is a way to treat cancer that is tailored to each individual patient's cancer.

The bottom line for investors

Moderna expects revenue from its respiratory products to be between $8 billion and $15 billion by 2027. Other products are anticipated to generate an additional $10 billion to $15 billion. In all, that has Moderna looking at itself as a company aiming at total revenue of somewhere around $20 billion to $30 billion. This projection is based solely on what's currently in the pipeline, and doesn't account for new products that could be developed in the future.

As always, it's smart to take management's projections with a healthy pinch of salt. These numbers could be wildly off if one or more products fail in clinical trials. However, if the projections are accurate, it's clear Moderna has plenty of room to grow.

The stock currently trades for 37 times trailing earnings, which is well above its historical average. It's also more expensive than COVID vaccine competitors Johnson and Johnson and Pfizer, which have P/E ratios of 32 and 9, respectively. Buying shares now for the long term could work out if Moderna can meet its revenue targets, but at today's valuation, the stock is not cheap.