ExxonMobil (XOM -0.21%) recently provided investors an early look into its upcoming third-quarter earnings report. The oil giant revealed that higher oil prices should boost its upstream earnings by $900 million to $1.3 billion in the third quarter. That should give the oil company the fuel to post strong results for the period.

Here's a look at Exxon's preliminary results and whether they signal that now's a good time to buy the oil giant. If you're interested in investing in ExxonMobil, check out this primer on how to get started.

Drilling down into Exxon's preliminary results

Exxon expects its third-quarter operating profit to be between $8.3 billion and $11.4 billion. That compares to the current analysts' consensus estimate that Exxon will earn $9.2 billion in the quarter. 

On the one hand, Exxon's profits will be well below the year-ago quarter's level of $19.7 billion when oil and gas prices were much higher and refining margins were stronger. However, its earnings should exceed last quarter's total of $7.9 billion. 

Higher oil prices fueled the sequential improvement. The global oil benchmark price, Brent, soared 30% in the quarter, rising from $72 a barrel to $97. Exxon expects the rise in crude oil to add $900 million to $1.3 billion to its bottom line in the third quarter. On top of that, it sees higher natural gas prices adding another $200 million to $600 million to its profits in the period. 

Higher oil and gas prices will help offset weaker results from its chemicals business. The company sees weaker margins affecting earnings by $400 million to $600 million. 

Overall, it looks like Exxon had a solid quarter. The oil giant will post its full quarterly report on October 27. 

Can Exxon's oil-fueled profits keep rising?

Exxon's preliminary results show the impact higher oil prices can have on its earnings. Surging crude prices should add $1 billion to its bottom line in the period.

Exxon could earn even more money if oil remains elevated in the coming quarters. That would probably give Exxon's stock the fuel to rally. However, falling crude prices would weigh on Exxon's profits and share price, so it's important to have a sense of where oil might go in the future. 

Crude has cooled off considerably since the quarter ended. It's currently down almost 10% from its recent peak, falling back into the mid-$80s. Weighing on oil has been weak gasoline demand. U.S. gasoline consumption was at a seasonally adjusted 22-year low last week. That could be driven by demand destruction following the 30% surge in crude prices during the second quarter as drivers tapped the brakes after experiencing some pain at the pump. Recent flooding in New York also likely had some impact on demand.  

There's some concern demand could face more pressure. Driving those worries is the growing angst that the U.S. could be about to enter a recession, which would likely impact demand for oil. Falling demand typically weighs on oil prices. 

However, OPEC is working to counteract any demand decline by cutting its supplies. The group recently agreed to keep their current production cuts of more than 1 million barrels per day through the end of this year. These production cuts are the primary factor fueling the more than 30% rise in crude prices during the third quarter. 

OPEC has said they could cut further if necessary to push up pricing. It wants to stabilize crude at around $90 a barrel. While that's easier said than done, especially in a deep recession, OPEC appears willing to do whatever it takes to put a firm floor under oil.

That bodes well for Exxon's future profitability. It suggests that the oil company should continue making a lot of money in the coming quarters. While a recession would likely have an impact on prices, crude might not fall too far because OPEC will probably cut additional output to prop up pricing.

Does this make Exxon stock a buy?

Exxon's profits appeared to improve by $1 billion in the third quarter. It could grow further in the future if crude remains elevated. 

However, Exxon's share price seems to reflect this possibility already. It recently hit its all-time closing high price of $120.20 per share on Sept. 27 and has fallen only about 8% from that peak because of the recent slump in oil prices. Even though shares are a bit lower, the stock isn't as cheap as it was this time last year, when its earnings were much higher. So while Exxon's stock has some upside potential if oil prices rebound, it doesn't have a great risk/reward profile right now, especially given the recession risk.