We've got lots of stock talk in this podcast as we play the game that educates, amuses, and enriches us all. And, it's the 25th edition, so we've brought back two returning champions to play against each other! In the end we're all winners on Rule Breaker Investing's "Market Cap Game Show."
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This video was recorded on Sept. 20, 2023.
David Gardner: The price per share of a stock tells you almost nothing. It's the price to buy one share of the stock. But how many shares does the company have outstanding? In math, we multiply two multiplicands together, but the price per share is only one multiplicand. If you don't know the other one, you can't do any meaningful math or figure out much of the world around you. Fools with a capital F know that you need to know the shares outstanding and then multiply that by the price per share, and now you know the actual full value of the company, its full price tag, its market capitalization, market cap. Well, to teach this lesson inexorably and unforgettably, we invented a game. That's what I do. The date was August 9th, 2017 the Market Cap Game Show was born and we've been playing every quarter since. Oh, and you're playing, too. I designed it that way so you can play along against my guest stars, against your spouse or partner, against your kids. Can you outscore my talented contestants? It's that time of the quarter. Again, 10 new stocks, three guest stars, Bill Mann, Emily Flippen, and you only on this week's Rule Breaker Investing.
Welcome back to Rule Breaker Investing. A delight to have you with us. The penultimate Wednesday of every quarter is dedicated to the Market Cap Game Show. Regular listeners are already putting their thinking caps on, their bled thinking caps methinks because regular listeners know where we're headed and you're getting ready to play along. But many new listeners may not know exactly what we're doing here. You are about to play a game. The game is all about estimating the values of companies. The market cap, the markets price tag on that company. Walmart is full of things on its shelves and they all have price tags we can see and know. But ironically, perhaps many investors don't know the real price tags of the stocks that are available on the shelves of the stock market. We have fun four times a year, this being one of them with talented guest star investors. A quiz show around the market caps of some of our favorite stocks. I mean, what could pull bigger ratings? You are playing along with us too. For each of the 10 stocks we're playing with this week. You as a player can listen to my guest stars make their best guesses at the market caps of some fun stocks, and you my players at home will simply decide that you either agree with the guesses made by Bill Mann and Emily Flippen or that you disagree. If you make the right call, give yourself a point. We play with 10 stocks, so a perfect score rarely achieved is 10 points. You up for it? Dear listeners, this is the 25th Market Cap Game Show, the Silver Jubilee show. I think we are officially now a tradition. To celebrate this tradition, I have two returning champions to introduce. First, Bill Mann, welcome back to the Market Cap Game Show. Bill, you won last time, three months ago in June you are our returning champion. Two questions for you, Bill. First, what do you do these days around the Motley Fool? Second, what else have you won in your life? When else have you been a champion?
Bill Mann: David, thanks for having me. I am the host of the morning show which is a show for Motley Fool subscribers. It's a live show. You can come and interact with a large number of our analysts, including Emily, who comes on.
Emily Flippen: Occasionally.
David Gardner: Never enough.
Bill Mann: No, never enough. I am also the lead advisor for Motley Fool's Firecrackers recommendation service, and for Global Partners and for Value Hunters.
David Gardner: Thank you, Bill. Well described and it seems like, are you dodging my question about what else you've won in life?
Bill Mann: I just wanted you to set me up I think.
David Gardner: Bill, what else have you won in life? What else? Have you been a champion?
Bill Mann: I guess I need to tell you about the Lance Crumbley Cup. Our families gather with a couple of other families and we play these minute to win at games. One time I went into a trophy store and I asked them, do you have a trophy that someone ordered that they never picked up? They're like, yes. They hand a cup and it just says Lance Crumbley on the bottom. We compete for the Lance Crumbley Cup and I will have you know that the man family is the reigning champion and the holders of the Lance Crumbley Cup.
David Gardner: How is this earned from one year to the next?
Bill Mann: They're called Minute To Win It game. It's things like who can get an Oreo from your forehead to your mouth fastest without using your hands, who can keep a balloon up in the air longest while being shot with a squirt gun. Things of this nature.
David Gardner: That is fantastic, Bill. I'm thinking there's a chance that Lance Crumbley is listening right now.
Bill Mann: He's like, "I've got to pick up my cup."
David Gardner: There's an even smaller chance that he might try to reclaim his cup because you've finally come public with this.
Bill Mann: That's right. It is a distinct honor to bear the Lance Crumbley Cup and we do try to uphold the tradition. Lance, if you are out there, thank you for forgetting to pick up your cup.
David Gardner: Emily Flippen, welcome back to the Market Cap Game Show for the first time in a couple of years. Emily, you are also a past champion and over our 25 shows you featured in several of them. Thank you first. Emily, what do you do these days around the Motley Fool? Second, what else have you won in your life? When else have you been a champion?
Emily Flippen: Well, thanks for having me, David, and it's a reminder about, oh, how the mighty have fallen here. Hopefully, I can redeem myself after my couple of years absence from the show. But I'm looking at Bill right now, and he's smiling and a little bit of doubt is creeping up in me. But the good news is, is that I don't normally have to compete with Bill on a day to day basis here at the Fool 'cause I work on Stock Advisor and Blast Off, so two more kind of growth-oriented investing services. Lots of Fools probably start off with Stock Advisors. Definitely a good place to dip your toes in and the last time I won anything, this is hard because I have this terrible flaw where everything I really love and I care about, I tend to lose. Everything I really put my effort in don't tend to do that well. But I always win the most random things that I could not care less about and the thing that comes to mind is my family's March Madness tournaments, the flip and family tournament, we have a little trophy and every single year we pick our teams. I don't watch sports at all, so I pick teams based off how much I like the mascots, whether or not, I have good impressions with the university, whatever it be. I have won now for three or four years in a row just based on absolutely nothing. I guess maybe the March Madness tournament.
David Gardner: That is wonderful. I mean, many of us play March Madness tournaments for years and don't win. Emily, it sounds as if this happens fairly frequently in the Flippen family tournament.
Emily Flippen: To be fair, it's not a particularly competitive pool.
David Gardner: I like that you do it. But I'm very sad about this idea that the things that you really care about go away.
Emily Flippen: The benefit to that though is that I'm always trying to be better. There's never a peak for which I can fall off.
David Gardner: I love it.
Emily Flippen: Away something to be striking.
David Gardner: Never settle. Okay. Well, Fools, let's get started on this Silver Jubilee edition of the Market Cap Game Show. I'm excited. Stock number 1, Bill Mann. One of the coolest things about American business to me anyway, but I know to you too is the stories of corporations that have been around for a long time. They started as some form of caterpillar, nearly unrecognizable to us today because we only know and see the butterfly. Bill, for you, does any company come to mind where you know enough about the corporate history to relate how they got started and how they might be doing something totally different right now?
Bill Mann: One of my favorite stories like that is Nokia, which started out as a boot-maker.
Emily Flippen: What?
Bill Mann: Yeah, exactly. Finnish cellular company and maybe its best days are behind it at this point. Maybe it's old, slightly tattered butterfly at this point. But they made toilet paper, they made televisions, and got into cellular networks and cellular phones very very late in the company's history.
David Gardner: Sounds like they've got a plan B if the whole cellphone thing doesn't really work out, back to boots and our Omega is our Alpha.
Bill Mann: Would you not absolutely rock some Nokia boots?
David Gardner: I would. Well, stock number 1 got started 96 years ago, just a few miles from Fool studios as an A&W Root Beer stand. This isn't the quiz. The quiz is actually the market cap as you know Bill. But do you happen to know what company I'm talking about?
Bill Mann: You may be talking about Pepsi-Cola.
David Gardner: I'm not. But I thought of Pepsi Cola as starting in North Carolina.
Bill Mann: Sure. But a lot of times the corporate origins of companies are a little bit different. You what you're saying is that was a terrible guess?
David Gardner: No, it was a fun guess. But I'll now tell you, since I'm about to ask you the market cap, I might as well tell you the company Marriott Corporation, Marriott International. I'll have a little bit more about this in a second, but let's cut to the chase here, Bill. What is your best market cap range for Marriott International, ticker symbol MAR?
Bill Mann: I'm going to say that Marriott International is somewhere between 49 and 67 billion in market cap.
David Gardner: Forty-nine to sixty-seven billion dollars of market cap. Bill Mann says, players at home, and Emily Flippen. Emily, have you stated in Marriott property? There are dozens of brands now, but based on your knowledge, have you recently hung out with the Marriott's?
Emily Flippen: Yeah, I'm sure I have. But I will say I stay in Airbnb a lot more than I do.
David Gardner: That is a threat to the Marriott International Corporation at this point, but I don't think they are suffering too much. But yeah, I understand Airbnb.
Emily Flippen: It's funny because when I'm thinking about this market cap, I'm acutely aware of the fact that Marriott is smaller than Airbnb, at least as of the last time that I compared the two.
David Gardner: Very interesting. The question then to you and our listeners at home is, do you want to agree with Bill Mann's market cap range of 49-67 billion or do you want to disagree?
Emily Flippen: I think Bill is probably right on the money, somewhere around 60 billion. I think if he went wrong, he went too small. If I was giving a range, I probably would have gone a little bit higher. But I'm going to air on the side of caution and say Bill is probably right about right in that range, yes.
David Gardner: Indeed, Emily, you get a plus one because you called it right, and man, did Bill Mann call it right. A good range, although pretty broad. I think Emily really deserves the point because she said 60 billion. As we record from Fool studios, it's clocking in 59.85 billion this Tuesday morning. Sometimes it feels unfair to me in this game that somebody comes up with a good answer and someone else just goes, I agree and they get point. But this time I feel like Emily earned it.
Bill Mann: I like the fact that it's almost exactly at the 50% in between my rate.
David Gardner: I agree with that. Almost exactly, 11 on the downside, seven on the upside. Those who are math inclined might disagree, Bill.
Bill Mann: It was a valiant zero point is what I would say.
David Gardner: The Marriott Corporation, get this, was founded by John Willard Marriott in 1927 when he and his wife Alice opened a root beer stand in Washington, DC. Marriott was convinced that the city needed a place to get a cool drink. After returning to Utah and graduating from the University of Utah, Marriott purchased the rights to franchise A&W Root Beer stand in Columbia Heights here in DC. The first summer saw brisk business, but as cold weather approached, Wikipedia says as cold weather approached, they realized the seasonal nature of their business and they received permission from A&W to start selling food. He named the restaurant Hot Shoppes. That's a brand I remember as a DC school kid growing up in the '70s. Anyway, decades earlier, Marriott bought the vacant lot next to one of his Hot Shoppes, removed the curb, and began offering the first drive-in service on the East Coast. In 1953, Hot Shoppes became a public company. I got to go a little bit further with this. Its first hotel, the Twin Bridges Motor Hotel, was in Arlington, Virginia. It opened in 1957. It cost nine dollars per night, plus an extra buck for every person that was in the car. [laughs] Its second hotel, the Key Bridge Marriott in Roslyn, Virginia, opened the same year. It was Marriott International's longest continuously operating hotel until its closure in July of 2021. That big old Marriott that was right across from the district via Key Bridge. I grew up looking at it and going to it. Hot Shoppes, by the way, was renamed the Marriott Corporation in 1967. I have to go just a little bit further and then cut me please.
Bill Mann: No, this is so good. I drove past the Key Bridge Marriott building this morning. They're waiting to see what else is going to go in there.
David Gardner: To me, the company is successful enough and big enough. Why give away the flagship? Why end that? I know probably it wasn't the best location and COVID.
Bill Mann: A little tired.
David Gardner: It could have benefited from it real fast. [laughs] Fair, and many hearing us right now have never seen this before, but those in and around DC or who visited the Washington, DC area maybe can picture this old hotel. Anyway, my last fun fact, in 1976, the company opened two theme parks named Marriott's Great America in California and in Illinois. I'll stop, but we may just talk about those before we're done. Anyway, Emily, one; Bill, nothing. Let's go to stock number 2. Emily Flippen and I initially knew you as a Motley Fool intern, then later as a Motley Fool stock analyst. Then not too long after that, I learned you were a gamer. Then you beat me at Terraforming Mars, which is one of the best board games of the past 10 years. I knew you were a good gamer, but now I know you and others in the world will shortly know you as an adventure gamer because when CBS's show Survivor debuts next week, and while you are on the show, you are in the competition, am I right?
Emily Flippen: Yes. On Season 45 of Survivor, which I guess is appearing next week, it snuck up on me.
David Gardner: Yeah, September 27th, I believe, is the Wednesday night debut of the show. Well, I'm going to want to ask you more about this later in the show, but for now, let's get back to stock number 2. You are an adventure gamer. Now, at least in my mind, a new phrase that I don't think Survivor even uses. But anyway, you're an adventure gamer but.
Bill Mann: TM.
David Gardner: [laughs] Why not? I think we got it. It started here. Have you been a video gamer?
Emily Flippen: I do greatly enjoy video games, which will make a potential loss here, especially embarrassing.
David Gardner: Could you just share a couple of the games that you enjoy now or have enjoyed in the past?
Emily Flippen: Yes, I love playing cooperative games with my friends. Since the pandemic, that has been probably the most common way that we have interacted. Any team-based, team-building games are fair game to me and my friend group.
David Gardner: Do you have multiple going on at once? Are these asynchronous, are you checking in too many times during the day to play the game?
Emily Flippen: We'll do one game at a time. We've tried the asynchronous games that go on too long, but right now we're doing Age of Empires II.
David Gardner: Excellent.
Emily Flippen: Which is extremely old game, but we revisit it.
David Gardner: That's not that old, Bill. That's an American classic. Anyway, I'm delighted to know that. First-person shooters, Emily?
Emily Flippen: Occasionally. I'm embarrassed to say it, but I have played. I've played Fortnite, it's no Age of Empires, but it gets the job done.
Bill Mann: It's pretty fun. [laughs]
David Gardner: At least on this show, you should not be embarrassed. You should be pounding your chest with pride. Call of Duty?
Emily Flippen: I've never played Call of Duty.
David Gardner: Iconic. World of Warcraft?
Emily Flippen: Of course played the World of Warcraft. I think I know where this is going.
David Gardner: Excellent. Yes, you do. Activision Blizzard, ticker symbol ATVI, which is in the process I think of finally being bought out by Microsoft. I was checking the press releases mid-January 2022, Satya Nadella announced the deal to buy Activision Blizzard. That's more than a year and a half ago. Here we are in September. But forget about whether the deal will finally be consummated. I think it will, and which day will actually happen when my shares disappear forever and I have to pay capital gains because I'm getting paid out. Forget about all that. All that really matters right now. Emily Flippen is your market cap specified range for Activision Blizzard, ticker symbol ATVI
Emily Flippen: I know it's extremely close to the buyout price. I'm horribly embarrassed right now because I have two numbers in mind. One is the share price because I have been [laughs] closely watching the share price as it converges to the buyout price, and one is the market cap and I cannot for the [laughs] life of me remember which one is which, but I'm not going to give Bill any more hints other than that. If my market cap is off, please excuse my guess because it's very likely that maybe I'm thinking of the share price.
David Gardner: We will excuse that and it's hard for me to do that because I inveigh against just the share price at the start of each of these Market Cap Game Shows. But I do forgive you, Emily and all three of us know, and many others watching and a lot of Motley Fool members own Activision Blizzard stock. The stock has barely budged for weeks and weeks, it's just sitting there changing by pennies with each passing day awaiting the final consummation of the buyout. Emily, what is your market cap range?
Emily Flippen: Sixty-six and a half billion to 70 billion.
David Gardner: Sixty-six and a half billion to 70 billion, one of the tighter market cap ranges ever given for a large-cap stock on this show. Players at home, Bill Mann, agree or disagree with Emily's range of $66.5-70 billion.
Bill Mann: It's higher than that, so I will disagree.
David Gardner: Bill ties the game. Not higher by much, but Bill apparently knows this stuff. I'm impressed. The market cap for Activision Blizzard 72.67 billion. Just a couple of billion above Emily's.
Emily Flippen: I thought the buyout price was 69 billion.
Bill Mann: It's like 77.
Emily Flippen: That's off the share price at 90 something and change.
David Gardner: I love your expression, Emily. You were shocked. Almost looking slightly horrified. Check it. I might have this wrong, but I rarely get these numbers wrong, double-checking them before each show. I think I've got that right. You were close, but Bill and some of our players at home were closer by saying disagree. Emily, you've got a news flash.
Emily Flippen: I did. You saw it all over my face because I'm sitting here it hitting myself. I'm remembering now that I think I had my buyout price for Activision correct at somewhere around 69 billion, but they did issue a special dividend for shareholders in exchange for the delays that were caused by the regulatory survey which is probably resulting in some of that extra money.
Bill Mann: It made all the difference.
Emily Flippen: It made all the difference.
David Gardner: Mainly Activision just had to satisfy various European objectors. It does seem as if Europe doesn't like some of our big American companies. It seems regularly, this is a little bit of a cynics opinion to shake down Google and others that seem to be dominating various aspects of European e-commerce. It's always these American bad guys who are having to constantly pay a few billion here, a few billion there to France or the UK. Am I being cynical, Bill?
Bill Mann: You're being cynical, but you're in the neighborhood. European antitrust standards are a little bit different from the US in that the US you have to show harm to the end consumer, and in Europe you have to show a competitive advantage. It's a little different but if you think about it, what is Europe getting out of American companies being more and more dominant? Not much. Maybe they are shaking down a little. [laughs]
David Gardner: Thank you for that. Occasionally, it's not just a game show. We provide analysis. Thank you, Bill. Score at 1-1. Let's move on to stock number 3. Bill Mann, you've traveled many places in the world. Let's skip over popular destinations like London or Tokyo. Bill, share one or two of the more remote or unusual places that you visited.
Bill Mann: Maybe the most remote place that I visited is the Sultanate of Brunei, which is not on.
David Gardner: Never been. What called you to the Sultanate? A diplomatic mission?
Bill Mann: CIA. Next question. Go ahead.
David Gardner: You're not supposed to say that.
Bill Mann: Did I say that out loud? That was a mistake. I was on a flight. I was going from Manila to Singapore, and there were a number of ways that I could get from Manila to Singapore. I noticed that one was through the Sultanate of Brunei. I thought this sounds like a thing that would be interesting. I flew through there and I had a very long layover and there was a guy there with a desk that said free bus tour. I went over and I said I'd like the bus tour. The guy goes, "You know there's no bus." I said, "Well, what do you got?" He goes, "Come around front." He picked me up in his car and drove me all around the Sultanate of Brunei.
David Gardner: Nice.
Bill Mann: It was a blast.
David Gardner: You've been to some unusual airports. Are you a connoisseur of airports, Bill?
Bill Mann: There is no such thing as an actual connoisseur of airports. [laughs] There's a reason why as pleasant as an airport has not become the usual lexicon of the English language. [laughs]
David Gardner: I guess you're right. We do have reviews of a lot of things these days. We have reviews of restaurants, we have reviews of plays, we have Yelp reviews of every business going on out there. One thing I don't see, by the way, I think this would be awesome wedding reviews. How great would it be to be the wedding reviewer, a columnist at a prominent city paper, sitting there passively aggressively reviewing other people's weddings? [laughs] Maybe not, but airports, these are phenomena today. These are malls. These are critical nexus. I think there's an opportunity for somebody listening to us right now to become an airport reviewer. I'm sure they're out there.
Bill Mann: Actually, the airports are ranked, and Seoul ranks very highly and Singapore ranks very high.
David Gardner: I'm going to say you are a connoisseur of airports, you're saying what you just said. Guilty as charged. Bill, have you been to the Cancun Airport?
Bill Mann: Never. Never.
David Gardner: Well, that's a shame because Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, which bears the ticker symbol ASR, operates nine Mexican airports. I'm going to give a little bit of help to all my players, those at home as well. It is the third largest airport services company by passenger traffic in Mexico. If that helps you, Bill, as you're thinking through your market cap range, not for the Sultanate of Brunei Airport, but for Grupo Aeroportuario. [laughs] Let me say it again.
Bill Mann: You should leave this.
David Gardner: This is hard. Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, ticker symbol ASR.
Bill Mann: We usually just call it ASUR just because you don't want to hear my Spanish accent.
David Gardner: ASUR. Bill, market cap range.
Bill Mann: They also own the airport in Puerto Rico and they own several Colombian airports as well. It's an interesting company. They have a right to operate the airports for a long period of time, and some of the logistics things that are being added to airports now I think are really interesting. I'm delaying so that I can think of a number.
David Gardner: Yeah. I'll delay a little bit further. Wasn't there a political effort recently, president of Mexico, to take over some of the Mexican airports?
Bill Mann: Yeah. It really has to do with the fact that the airport in Mexico City is not fit for standard for a city of that size. This company is not at risk of having that.
David Gardner: I checked the stock graph, I didn't see a big drop-down that day.
Bill Mann: No.
David Gardner: Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste.
Bill Mann: I'm sorry, I didn't catch that.
David Gardner: I'm not going to do it again. I think I speak Spanish with a vaguely Italian accent. Market cap range, Bill.
Bill Mann: What is that, German? It is in between nine billion dollars and $11 billion.
David Gardner: Pretty tight market cap range. I never know how much either of my talented contestants is going to know about the company. I am randomizing from the full 500, that's what I call the 500 most popular stocks that Motley Fool members can see on our screener, on our website for members. We rank stocks by our expected return and their popularity. I look at the top 500 because I figure those are the fun ones to talk about, and this is one of them. I feel like, Bill, you have quite a lot of knowledge about ASUR. Have you previously recommended the stock?
Bill Mann: Absolutely.
David Gardner: I mean, I'm not going to say, Emily, you should default agree with Bill's range of 9-11 billion. Because when people know that you know that they know there's a whole princess bride thing that happens here where you may not exactly say the number because they might go the other way and that might kill you. But that's not going to happen on this show. There's no poison.
Bill Mann: You are involved in the land war in Asia.
Emily Flippen: Yeah. I think Bill is playing a little bit of mind games with this range. I think Bill knows that this is a Stock Advisor recommendation, one that I should be somewhat familiar.
David Gardner: I didn't know, thank you.
Emily Flippen: But I think he's also acutely aware of the fact that I would not be able to give a two billion dollar range for this company, and he's playing upon my insecurities thinking that I will take the easy road out and default agree with him. But what Bill doesn't know is I'm a contrarian at heart, and I think his range is too high, so I'm disagreeing.
David Gardner: Damn. I must say you absolutely nailed it. Maybe even the logic, too, but it is too high. We do know Bill knows his stuff. He was awfully close, but I'm not going to say the name anymore, $7.70 billion for ticker symbol ASR, the airport people of Sureste, Bill
Bill Mann: High five.
David Gardner: Yeah. I mean, I'm glad that I was going to see that because Bill did a great job breaking it down, clearly knows this stuff. Emily then brilliantly looked through what she thought Bill's logic was. I'm assuming she's right. I don't know if she actually. Bill, was that going on in your head? Were you misleading Emily and our listeners at home?
Bill Mann: I knew it was super close, actually. I knew 11 was high and I knew nine was going to be one side or the other of the number.
David Gardner: Good. Let me update the standings. Emily, two; Bill, one. Onto stock number 4. Emily Flippen, I know you grew up in Texas, and I remember it wasn't exactly Dallas-Fort Worth or Houston but a little farther out. Where again?
Emily Flippen: McKinney, Texas, just north of Dallas.
David Gardner: Just north of Dallas. McKinney, Texas. Emily, would you briefly brag about your hometown?
Emily Flippen: [laughs] What to brag about McKinney, Texas. It is conveniently located in that weird middle ground between Texas and Oklahoma. Not much to do out there, lots of cows, but increasingly people. The moment I had the chance when I turned 18, I did get out.
David Gardner: I feel like this is a little bit of a Texas thing to do. Give us one solid reason that McKinney is better than Dallas.
Emily Flippen: There's so many reasons. Well, you give me that.
David Gardner: We'll save one because I'm about to ask about Houston as well. We're going after Dallas and Houston, but go ahead and start with Dallas.
Emily Flippen: Well, I will say this. Dallas, it's too businessy. Not much to do if you're a young person, although this might have changed in recent years. It's a little bit corporate, it's a little bit stuffy. McKinney is suburban, but at least it recognizes that it's suburban.
David Gardner: Excellent. What about Houston? Why is McKinney, Texas clearly better than Houston?
Emily Flippen: The armpit of Texas. At least you don't have the humidity.
David Gardner: Ouch. That's a lot of Motley Fool members who just went out there. [laughs] Dare I ask Austin? Does McKinney exceed Austin in any way, shape, or form?
Emily Flippen: Yeah. McKinney exceeds Austin in current day. Now Austin 20 years ago, hard to beat that.
Bill Mann: Austin has grown so much that McKinney might actually be a suburb of Austin.
David Gardner: [laughs] McKinney may or may not have been a farm town. You did say cows. By the way, was the Survivor season set on a farm? This go around. Did you have any farming tasks?
Emily Flippen: Yeah. I was luckily able to avoid the cows, the cowboys, the lassoing. None of that struck my way. [laughs]
David Gardner: I know you can't talk too much about a show that has yet to debut, but are you able to share maybe a little bit of a challenge, or mini game, or interaction that you had? Can you talk about that or not?
Emily Flippen: I can't. I'm so sorry. [laughs]
David Gardner: Great. I totally understand. But you have confirmed that there's no farming.
Emily Flippen: Yes. I think that's safe. It is filmed in Fiji. I can safely say it's filmed in Fiji. I did not interact with any Texas livestock during my time there.
Bill Mann: That would be an incredible show. [laughs]
David Gardner: Well, farms are on my mind because, well, Tractor Supply Company, ticker symbol TSCO. Tractor Supply, which is one of the better retailers in America at this point, seems to have been fairly Amazon-proof in that it has grown over the course of time. I'm happy to say minor spoiler alert, that I recommended the stock just checking it on Stock Advisor on February 17th of 2017. Here we are, 6.5 years later, it has tripled. The S&P 500 is up 90% over those 6.5 years. That's fun, just to note on its own, but this has been a good performer. Emily, I realize that you work for Stock Advisor. I also realize you're not expected to know every single stock we have under coverage, especially one that I may have picked 6.5 years ago.
Emily Flippen: I have two separate numbers that are circling around in my head right now, and I debating whether or not I create my range wide enough to fit them both.
David Gardner: Yeah.
Emily Flippen: Or if I pick one and then let Bill try to figure it out.
David Gardner: You're doing exactly what we want on game shows as now a professional game show, as we want people articulating their thoughts. You're doing this really well. Have you ever appeared on any other game shows besides the Market Cap Game Show?
Emily Flippen: I have not. But I will say I did a number of job interviews when I graduated from college, a lot for consulting companies, and they would always ask complicated questions for which I would do exactly what I'm doing now. Just explain what's going through my head. I'm giving them absolutely no answers. I got numerous job offers for just explaining what was happening in that black box head of mine.
David Gardner: That is a pro tip. Thank you. That's why I do this show. Thank you, Emily Flippen. Oh my gosh, it's a throwdown. This is one of the relatively new rules for the Market Cap Game Show. Bill knows this, remembers this from last time. Emily, a couple of years ago, I don't think we were doing throwdown, but here's how it works. It's not just Emily who's going to be sharing her range of market cap as she continues to process what she thinks about the Tractor Supply company. It's both of you. Two of the 10 stocks randomly have a slightly different mini game. Tractor Supply is the first this show, and here's how it works. Bill and Emily will now each independently write down their best guess at the market cap range for the stock for them. Here's how we score it. If one of them is right and the other is wrong, that is if the stock falls within one of their ranges but not the other, then of course the person who got it right gets plus one. If they both get it right, if it's within both of their ranges, whoever has the tighter correct range gets plus one. If neither of them gets the stock within their range and Bill, I think you and Jim Mueller managed to achieve this last show.
Bill Mann: We did it?
David Gardner: If neither gets the range right, whoever gets closer to the actual market cap gets that plus one. Now for my players at home, I've made this really simple. I've simplified this for the first time with this show. Players at home after each contestant names their range, all you have to do is just pick the one you think is better. Name, Emily or name, Bill. Simple as that you'll score with them. Players, are you ready?
Bill Mann: I believe I am.
David Gardner: Excellent. Their pens are starting to hit the post. It notes that we rock here around Fool HQ and I have too many of these all around my study at home. Tractor Supply, again, a live Stock Advisor recommendation. A company founded by the way, in Chicago in 1938 as a mail order catalog that sold tractor parts. This is what you'd expect. This is not a caterpillar to a butterfly story Bill Mann. There's no A&W Root Beer stand here. I will say they've moved from Chicago to Brentwood, Tennessee, where they're headquartered now.
Bill Mann: Seems like a more logical place for a retailer that specializes in gentleman farmers would be.
David Gardner: Yeah. They have a lot of sales these days just for pet owners as well. It's not just for farmers and you're both not, has either of you been to a Tractor Supply company store?
Emily Flippen: I went as an excuse to do some stock research a number of years back and was just amazed. [laughs] It really it's a lifestyle. That's the only way I can use to describe this fast.
Bill Mann: Yeah, I've been to one as well and I was taken by, it was one of those places where many of the items are big ticket and they are doing a lot of commerce in each store.
David Gardner: It's clearly working and it's time to find out your market cap ranges. We're going to turn to Emily. First Emily, what have you written down on your green posted note?
Emily Flippen: I wrote down 15 billion to 21.5 billion.
David Gardner: Fifteen billion to 21.5 billion. Bill, what about you?
Bill Mann: Seventeen billion to 24 billion.
David Gardner: Wow. Really pretty cool meeting of the minds. This is really interesting. One of you is going to get a point, the other was close, but does not get the point players at home. Now is your time. Are you with Emily or are you with Bill? I'm going to give you three seconds to articulate out loud the name of the person that you're choosing. You're locked in as well. The correct answer is the market cap for the Tractor Supply Company is 22.99 billion. That is within Bill's wider range of 17-24 billion, just outside Emily's 15-21.5. Plus one, Bill Mann.
Emily Flippen: Good job.
Bill Mann: I can't believe I got that one right. I had no idea.
Emily Flippen: Really?
Bill Mann: I had no idea.
David Gardner: Well, you did widen the range a little bit.
Bill Mann: I did.
David Gardner: Suggests a little bit of a lack of confidence. But you widened it.
Bill Mann: Thank you, David. [laughs]
David Gardner: Yeah. You know what, we don't always need to assert with confidence to win. Sometimes we go in unsure and we win because we brought humility. Bill, humility, a word regularly used right next to Bill Mann's name on one side of the shot. [laughs]
Bill Mann: Humble I am. [laughs] I'm awesome at humble.
David Gardner: I don't think you need to be humble. After scoring a plus one, bringing the game to Bill to Emily two players at home. Do you have four? You could have four at home. You may be winning. Let's go to stock number 5. Bill, does the name John Moschitta conjure up any memories? John Moschitta, Jr.
Bill Mann: It does not. Does he owe me money?
David Gardner: Probably not, although I couldn't ultimately say. John Moschitta at various points has been called the world's fastest talker. In fact, he's in the Guinness book for speaking 586 words per minute. How fast do you type, 586 words per minute? Taquilalia, by the way, is extremely rapid speech. John Moschitta, Jr. did a famous commercial for this company in the 1980s speaking, you can look it up on YouTube. Just google FedEx 1980s commercials and you can't miss John Moschitta talking incredibly fast landing finally with the tag line, when it absolutely, positively has to be there overnight, which this company, stock number 5, FedEx, was rocking in the 1980s. Do you remember those ads?
Bill Mann: Absolutely, yeah. I remember those ads.
David Gardner: Yeah. John Moschitta had a run where he was on some talk shows and other things. I think he voiced some characters for movies and still living and he's 12 years older than I am. John Moschitta he turned 69 on August 6th of this year. He is an American. Other names he's known by fast talking guys, some people have called him Motor Mouth in the past, John Moschitta. But we're turning our gaze back to Federal Express. Once the Federal Express company now FedEx, ticker symbol FDX, when it, Bill, absolutely positively has to be there overnight. The Internet, by the way, was invented in between the 1980s and now. So a lot of things, the email, for example.
Bill Mann: Like overnight. [laughs] So that's slow.
David Gardner: [laughs] Yeah. Regularly, I'm clicking something on Amazon today, it's like OK, God, you're going to get 7:00-10:00 PM I'm like, I don't even need a night-time delivery of this thing, but I guess somebody's going to bring it and they do.
Bill Mann: They do.
David Gardner: Sometimes maybe they use FedEx, but Amazon has its own logistics going on these days as well. FedEx, Bill, your market cap range.
Bill Mann: I know that they have had a fairly extraordinary amount of competition from companies that at one point in time they were providing service to. It is a coo-petition environment with a lot of these companies that have in-house logistics and companies like UPS and FedEx. I believe that the range is 76 billion to 89 billion.
David Gardner: Seventy-six billion to 89 billion players at home. Players at home are observing both of you. That's part of what happens on this show. We listen and we learn from you, and we now know that you're tied two to two so there's not strong reason to necessarily agree with either of my talented contestants. They're deadlocked right now at two to two and 76-89 billion, Emily, I see you staring. I was going to say off into space, but it's really at our wall and [laughs] you're thinking deeply about this. What are your thoughts in terms of Bill being right or wrong?
Emily Flippen: It's a hard game because when you don't know, and in my case, I don't know with FedEx. I should know, another Stock Advisor recommendation, but I don't. I only have Bill's behavior to go off of, so I'm staring at the wall trying to evaluate the [laughs] laugh that Bill has.
David Gardner: You're not playing FedEx, you're playing Bill.
Emily Flippen: I'm playing Bill. How you have to play the Market Cap Game Show. You don't know the market cap, you need to know your opponent. But I will say the market cap range Bill gave was tighter than I would have expected. Smaller than I would have expected. But Bill has been incredibly accurate and incredibly tight with his market caps and I did very little preparation for today's show. I'm starting to get the sense that Bill might have over-prepared for today's show. I'm going to do the opposite of what I did last time. Do I want to, though?
Bill Mann: You do. I don't know. I can't remember. I'm terrible.
Emily Flippen: No, I think it's too small. I think FedEx is larger than $89-86 billion.
David Gardner: He said 76-89 and listeners at home, you're making the call right along with Emily right now to agree or disagree.
Emily Flippen: It's such a tight range, but I can't help but feel, my gut is telling me FedEx is bigger. I'm going to have to disagree.
David Gardner: Plus one for Emily and yet you didn't even have it right. [laughs] It's smaller, but that's part of the beauty of the Market Cap Game Show and players at home.
Emily Flippen: Undeserved point.
David Gardner: Players at home, if you disagreed with Bill's range, give yourself a plus one. The market cap for FedEx is $63.76 billion. This is a stock, by the way, that over the last 25 years, it's been up, it's been down. You would think, it's lived through a golden age where all of a sudden we're all delivering a lot more than they once were. They used to be delivering documents, competing against the fax machine for being absolutely positively there overnight. But these days the Internet came along, they're helped and hurt simultaneously. This stock has basically tracked the market since the late '80s. For periods it's been ahead of the S&P 500 return, but more recently it's been a little bit below. It's just about dead on with the market over these many years, which means it's a good investment by the way, if you just left it in there, I think there's a dividend there. You're getting paid and you're not actually jumping your money in and out of the market so you're getting all of that markets returned by patiently buying and holding what I think is a great American global company, one with a smaller market cap than either of you thought, $63.76 billion. Again, if you disagreed with Bill, give yourself plus one. Emily, as we move to the halftime follies, you're up three-two.
Onto stock number 6, Emily, tough question for you, but as a speech and debating champion, which you didn't mention earlier. But anyway, I know that's part of your past. You're used to shrugging off tough questions like water off a duck's back. Do you believe the age of crypto is now in the rearview mirror or is still ahead visible through the windshield down the freeway?
Emily Flippen: I think it's still ahead. It doesn't mean I'm a big fan, but I think it's still ahead of us. Yeah.
David Gardner: Any crypto purchases on your part over the last several years?
Emily Flippen: I tried to match my recommendations with my own portfolio and in Blast Off, I, alongside Aaron Bush, did recommend both Ethereum and Bitcoin and sticking with both of those. I did purchase them. Not big fans of those investments, but I still own both of them.
David Gardner: Any NFTs of your own, did you ever dip into that market?
Emily Flippen: Absolutely not.
David Gardner: Why not?
Emily Flippen: I really don't like to buy things that I can't conceptualize, and I have a hard time conceptualizing them.
David Gardner: Were any of your Survivor competitors seemingly into maybe even obsessed with crypto?
Emily Flippen: Not that I'm aware of.
David Gardner: Well, this company came public in April of 2021 when Bitcoin was $55,000 a Bitcoin and is now $25,000 a Bitcoin. Coinbase Global, ticker symbol COIN and I'm looking at your expression. Viewers at home can't see this, Emily. I'm not trying to tilt their answer, but you don't look confident. You look a little bit surprised.
Bill Mann: Horrified, I think of the word.
Emily Flippen: I'm kicking myself because I wear my emotions on my face, and I forgot that this is a competition. So now Bill knows my cards here.
David Gardner: All right, and so do listeners at home. They're entitled, too. Emily, I'm going to ask you for your market cap range for Coinbase Global. Their ticker symbol is COIN.
Emily Flippen: If my memory serves, and this is a long time ago, I think this company went public at something like a $50 billion valuation. It was up there for a long while, and that might even be on the low end. I would imagine it's much lower today. The share price has moved in lockstep along with the price of Bitcoin, given how much of their revenues are derived from retail traders and how much retail traders tend to trade based off the price of Bitcoin.
David Gardner: I want to say prior to any numbers that I agree with, all of the things you just said there.
Emily Flippen: This is me covering my basis.
David Gardner: You're barking up the right tree right now.
Emily Flippen: Yes. This is me trying to explain to our listeners that I understand the fundamentals of Coinbase's business, even if I may not understand its market cap. For that reason, I'm going to give a decently wide range. I'm going to say $15-23 billion.
David Gardner: $15-23 billion. Bill Mann, players at home, do you want to agree or disagree?
Bill Mann: I'm going to agree with Emily that it is within that range.
David Gardner: We're tied because Bill, you're right, and Emily, that was a pretty darn good call for somebody who seemed to be swimming around looking for a life preserver briefly as you thought through that, but the market cap is 19.57 billion. This stock by the way down 75% from its IPO less than three years later. It's been some hard times for the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States by trading volume. Before we move on to stock number 7, Bill, do you have any thoughts you'd like to share on crypto? Emily has already given her view that we're not looking in the rearview mirror, we're looking through the front of the windshield.
Bill Mann: I'm not a fan. Maybe that makes me an old guy, old guys shouts at clouds. [laughs]
David Gardner: No, it doesn't make you an old guy. You're allowed to have an opinion, however old you are.
Bill Mann: There are certain places where a cryptocurrency is going to be highly beneficial and that is again, as an internationalist places where their currencies tend to be devalued very quickly. I have yet to see a use case globally that really balances out the amount of power and resources that are used to generate most cryptocurrencies.
David Gardner: All right, fair enough. We're going to leave that right there. This is not the crypto show, this is the Market Cap Game Show. Let's go into stock number 7. If I've been toting this up right, I believe it's three to three. Some of our players at home may have four or more at this point. If you do, I think you should definitely post that out on X. Let's move on to stock number 7. Bill, I just asked Emily a tough question, and so now you get a tough question. Are you ready?
Bill Mann: I'm worried.
David Gardner: What's the best, and I mean the best streaming show?
Bill Mann: It's The Bear.
David Gardner: The Bear?
Bill Mann: Have you watched The Bear?
David Gardner: I have not yet. There's so many shows, but give a skinny, give us 30 seconds of why The Bear is the best streaming show.
Bill Mann: It is about a classically trained chef who has come back from a three-star.
David Gardner: I have watched the first episode, keep going.
Bill Mann: A three star restaurant to take over his family's failing Chicago restaurant with a not small number of dysfunctional employees, a place that is beloved, but it is operating by the skin of its teeth and making it up as it goes along. The character development in this show is as good as I have seen in any show in years.
David Gardner: I love it. French Laundry I think he was that storied California restaurant, I think he came back. This is all fiction, this is not a documentary.
Bill Mann: Which is rough because in one of the episodes, they basically give his, the executive chef at the restaurant, he had been a very bad reputation. I think they've been a little cagey about which one it actually was. But it's uplifting and yet stressful, you feel all the time like things are just about to fall apart, it is wonderful.
David Gardner: I have watched the first episode and I can't even remember which of my streaming services that I click on my Roku or my PS 5. Where does it stream again?
Bill Mann: I think it's Hulu. I'm in the same boat.
David Gardner: We'll leave that one right there. I love it. Before I ask you about Netflix's market cap, Bill, and even tougher question, what's the most overrated streaming show? What's the one that, in your mind, too many people clearly have just gotten wrong, confused, or seduced by?
Bill Mann: I really could not watch The Tiger King when it came out. Can I say something maybe even more controversial?
David Gardner: Yes.
Bill Mann: I liked it, but I think that the love for Ted Lasso was pretty overdone. I didn't think there was great character development. I loved all of the characters and I watched every second of it, but I felt like it was a little thinner than the reputation the show left with.
David Gardner: Well, Netflix did not feature Ted Lasso, did feature the Tiger King, does not feature The Bear, but Netflix is stock number 7. Bill Mann, your market cap range for this streaming juggernaut. Netflix, ticker symbol NFL, means something else this time of year, NFLX.
Bill Mann: Netflix is a key member in our morning show, MANAMANA set of stocks, which is our own take on the most important company. You'd think I would have the market cap directly at hand. I know it is the smallest of those eight companies. I believe that it is somewhere between $130 billion and $166 billion.
David Gardner: 130-166. Emily Flippen, players at home, agree or disagree?
Emily Flippen: This might ironically be one that I'm the most off on too. It'd be hilarious if I'm closer on something like Tractor Supply than on Netflix.
Bill Mann: It moves so much.
Emily Flippen: It genuinely does, and I think that's part of the reason why it's hard to keep your pulse on a lot of these, I will call the mega-cap companies, Netflix being one of them. But the number that was coming up in my head was much closer to 200 billion. So for that reason, I'm going to disagree.
David Gardner: Plus one for Emily, it is 176.97 billion, about, well, 11 billion higher than the top end of Bill's range 130-166, 177 billion, basically. Well done, Emily, plus one. Emily, four; Bill three. We've got three stocks left.
Bill Mann: Feeling the pressure.
David Gardner: Netflix, by the way, a 200-bagger and counting for Stock Advisor members since 2004, and a lot of us, I am anyway, still holding. Onto stock number 8. Emily, for stock number 8, here's what the CEO said of their earnings as reported earlier this month. You tell me to stop when you know the company. You ready?
Emily Flippen: I'm ready.
David Gardner: "I think what we're seeing in the enterprise is really an orientation to solution based purchasing. It's about, hey, I need a seat, I need 100 seats. It's more, what can you do for my business to drive efficiency? We're seeing it on a couple of fronts." I'm going to keep going. "Some businesses are trying to explore new revenue streams. We had a Fortune 15 company buy our brand folder technology to basically repower their website. That's all about expanding their online footprint." I'm going to keep going. Bill, buzz in too if you like here. "We have other companies who are trying to scale and drive down the cost of certain activities, and what's come across those is that those are not episodic purchases, those are very planful."
Bill Mann: This feels like Salesforce.
David Gardner: Good guess.
Emily Flippen: This feels like very enterprise software company.
David Gardner: I'll just finish it out with, "Those are people putting together programs and processes at scale and trying to figure out what technology can get them to the fastest point of execution, and that's what we've been selling." I'm going to stop there because it doesn't get much more interesting from now [laughs] Brandfolder was a $155 million acquisition, a tuck in for this company might help you think about the market cap a little bit. Brandfolder, by the way, is a platform to share stock and track digital assets. Yes, this is a SaaS company. I'm not going to make you guys guess. I just want you to guess the market cap for ticker symbol SMAR. The company is Smartsheet. Yes, that was not the CEO, that was me performing the CEO. It wasn't my favorite role, but I wish them the best at Smartsheet, ticker symbol SMAR. Some jargon.
Bill Mann: You did bring some gravitas to the role.
David Gardner: Thank you. I definitely don't want that role, but it's just because I've never wanted to be a CEO, that's not a job that I think would be a lot of fun. I realize a lot of people aspire to it. It's an interesting company, Smartsheet. In a lot of ways it's like taking Microsoft Excel and making it into a business process, tracking and run your whole team kind of an application. Emily, what is your best guess at the market cap range for Smartsheet ticker symbol SMAR?
Emily Flippen: This is actually a recommendation in one of the portfolios that I manage at Blast Off. It was brought to the Blast Off portfolio by Dave Meyer who is a lot more familiar with the company and probably the market cap than I am, but I'll give you a range of 8-12 billion.
David Gardner: Some round numbers to work with, Bill Mann, 8-12 billion. She didn't even add a decimal. She could have, but it seems like she chose not to. She wanted you to have some round numbers to work with, 8-12 billion. Players at home, Bill Mann agree or disagree?
Bill Mann: She decided to put me on the horns of a dilemma, is what she decided to do.
David Gardner: Did you have a round number in your head?
Bill Mann: I think it's bigger than that. I'm going to disagree, and I think it's bigger.
David Gardner: Plus one for Bill again for being on the wrong side of it, [laughs] but getting it right. It is something that happens on this show, and we love that about this show. Plus one for Bill. It was outside Emily's range, but Smartsheet is smaller as a company, the market cap for this company, $5.62 billion. I may have thrown you both off a little bit by mentioning that $155 million acquisition. I don't know if that did or not. Nine figure acquisitions imply a certain heft or size on the part of the acquisitor, and so I thought maybe I tilted you too high, but it doesn't really matter.
Emily Flippen: To be frank, I knew I did not know the market cap of this company. I had a general idea. I thought it was a little bit less than 10 billion, which is why I gave that range. But now that I'm reflecting upon some of its recent share price movements, I'm reminded about the fact that the valuation for this company, along with so many enterprise software companies has come down recently.
David Gardner: Yeah, and I will say that this company IPOed in 2018, its stock is up 120% since, so that doubles up the market averages, the market up 60% since that 2018 IPO, this company up 120%. But it's also true that it's well down from its COVID highs of 80 to its present perch, just above $40 per share. Enough about Smartsheet. Let's move on. It's 4-4, you both have to make a commitment not to tie because we'll have to have an extra round and we're running out of time, so try not to tie. Let's go to company number 9. Bill, world traveler that you are, student of foreign markets, ever been to Romania?
Bill Mann: I have. I took my children on a Dracula tour in Romania.
David Gardner: I mean, that is so rad. What a dad?
Bill Mann: It was awesome.
David Gardner: You did that?
Bill Mann: It was awesome. [laughs]
David Gardner: Did you fly to Romania just to do that or was that just a stop along the train?
Bill Mann: We had been in Austria and we flew and celebrated New Year's along with Vlad the Impaler. [laughs]
David Gardner: You are the only friend I know who could say such a thing and actually have done it, and that is pretty great, Bill. Do you know of any companies that started in Romania and are now on the New York Stock Exchange?
Bill Mann: I know of one that started in the Ukraine and it is on the New York Exchange.
David Gardner: That's not this one. We'll keep moving. UiPath, ticker symbol PATH. In April of 2021, UiPath became the first Romania-born company ever to list on the New York Stock Exchange. It was launched, by the way, in 2015 with a team of 10 people based in Bucharest.
Bill Mann: Fantastic.
David Gardner: Three to go, and it was public six years later. This is an amazing story. But forget about the story for now. Bill Mann, what is your best guess at the market cap range of UiPath, ticker symbol PATH?
Bill Mann: All that makes me wonder what I've been doing with my time, first of all. UiPath, I am going to say it is somewhere between $4.4 billion and $7.1 billion.
David Gardner: 4.4 and 7.1. Bill starting to add decimals, complicating the formula. Emily, 4.4-7.1, players at home, agree or disagree?
Emily Flippen: You are throwing me some softballs here because this is another Stock Advisor recommendation, admittedly from a team I don't work on, which is a team Everlasting on Tom's side of Stock Advisor. But I am at the risk of horribly embarrassing myself, fairly confident that it's larger than that.
David Gardner: Give Emily and those who agreed with Emily a point. Again, you're both pretty dialed in. I am really impressed by all of your market cap guesses in this show. I mean, they're not really guesses. [laughs] The correct answer is $9.92 billion, so that is in fact bigger than Bill's stated range of 4.4-7.1 Robotic process automation services, the path has been pretty much straight down for this company. I regret to say $80, $70, $60, $50, $40 a share. One year after its IPO, $30, $20, and for the past 18 months bouncing around in the teens. Really quickly before we go to our last stock, really quickly. What kinds of signs would you both be looking for in a stock like this one to perk back up business or balance sheet? I'm just curious, what are you looking at for? This is a company still a $10 billion company that was only born eight years ago. It's a remarkable story. The stock has basically gone from 80 into the teens. What sort of thing do you look at, Emily, to decide if you would buy at this point?
Emily Flippen: Well, just resiliency. I feel bad for companies like this that have big ideas born at a time where it's hard to be an unprofitable upcoming business in this market environment. You really want to just, in my opinion, see a resilient management team with a clear long-term strategy.
Bill Mann: I think that's it. I mean, a lot of times management teams, especially in a company like this that has only existed for a short period of time, they learn a ton once they have come public and it changes everything. It's why I tend to stay away from IPO's because I think that there's a learning path that does happen. I think one of the things that you want to see from a business now, just as Emily alluded to, is a management team that hasn't panicked. That is using what is a weak market period to retrench itself.
David Gardner: Thank you. I will note that this company, the stock is up 25% of the last year versus the market's 15% so it's been rattling around the teens for more than a year. But it's bouncing back a little bit. Interesting one to watch. Well, let's move on to the final stock we think, unless you tie, stock number 10. Emily, five; Bill, four. Emily, surely, like every other red-blooded American, you have some interest in some past with amusement parks, am I right?
Emily Flippen: I do love amusement parks.
David Gardner: Why do you love amusement parks?
Emily Flippen: The thrill. You know what, I'm a thrill-seeker at heart. It's the adventure, it's the fun, the food, the environment, what's not to like?
David Gardner: Do you have a favorite?
Emily Flippen: Oh, that's, I mean, I was being raised in Texas. I think Six Flags is the one that comes to mind most immediately.
David Gardner: All right. Now, Selim Bassoul, former CEO of Middleby, and he served us a little bit on the board briefly here at the Motley Fool, the CEO of Six Flags, a really interesting company to be looking at right now. Changing gears for a quick sec. Emily, speaking of amusing, was being on Survivor amusing?
Emily Flippen: There's so many choice words I could use to describe my experience. I'm not sure if amusing is the one that I would though.
David Gardner: Okay. Well, no spoilers. I think since I say no spoilers, you can't actually say anything. But I'm still going to ask the question. Can you share with me a high point of greatest fun that you may have had even just during the filming. Maybe not even on the show. A high point of fun and then maybe a low point of least fun you experience on Fiji?
Emily Flippen: Oh, I love this question because I think my answer is the same for both of those questions, which is you learn a lot about yourself. I definitely came out of the experience, and I felt like I knew the good parts about Emily a lot better than I did going in, but I also knew the bad parts about Emily a lot better [laughs] than I did going in.
David Gardner: No spoilers. Again, looking forward to seeing the debut next week, Wednesday, September 27, on CBS. All right. Let's get, I asked fun for a very specific reason. I see Bill already nodding his head because the ticker symbol of Cedar Fair LLP is FUN. This company has been public for a couple of decades. It's been around for a long time. I have a fun factoid to share right at the end, but this is a throw-down round , which means both of you are getting ready to write down on the other side of your green posted note, your best guess at the market cap for Cedar Fair, ticker symbol FUN. All right. Emily, I'm going to turn to you first. What is your market cap range for Cedar Fair?
Emily Flippen: I wish you hadn't because I gave you a range of $8-20 billion. I haven't the first clue.
David Gardner: It's a wide range for a long-standing company that apparently Bill may know better. But we can't say for sure because our listeners at home have yet to make their selection. Bill, what is your range for Cedar Fair?
Bill Mann: I wrote and by the way, Cedar Fair is my favorite amusement park in the world.
David Gardner: It's in the Middle West, right?
Bill Mann: It's near Sandusky, Ohio.
David Gardner: Thank you.
Bill Mann: Absolutely fantastic, and October is coming up. They have a great October Halloween themed period of time.
David Gardner: Love it. Take the kids.
Bill Mann: Take the kids.
David Gardner: Vlad the Impaler once, Sandusky next.
Bill Mann: [laughs] That's right. I wrote $600 million to $1.3 billion.
David Gardner: All right. Listeners at home. Do you side with Emily 8-20 billion? Do you side with Bill's 600 million to 1.3 billion? Answer 3, 2, 1. Say the name. All right. You're locked in as well. Here's the answer. Cedar Fair's market cap is 2.02 billion. Actually, in between your ranges, neither of you had it. But Bill was definitely closer with his 1.3 billion top-measure Cedar Fair. By the way, October 1987-ish, so just coming out of the crash. Stock was like five dollars a share. Today it's 40, so it's been an eight-bagger. Bad news, the market's a 15-bagger [laughs] over that time. It's up 1,400% plus. This company was beating the market well as of 2018 a long run, but COVID, ouch, 55 to 15. It's bounced back to 40. But yeah, so we have a tie. Those who said Bill, you were right. We're at five to five. Quick trivia before we go to our overtime 11th stock, the famous World's Colombian Exposition of 1893, that's the World's Fair, in Chicago featured the first steel ferris wheel. A grand site was much higher than the buildings around it. Amusement park, as a phrase, would first be used four years later in 1897. I also want to note in Our Omega is our Alpha. This is a really fun coincidence since I randomize which stocks we play with, then I randomize their order, and it just so happens that in our Omega is our Alpha, because we let off with Marriott International, the former A&W Root Beer stand. I mentioned earlier in the show that in 1976, Marriott actually launched two theme parks called Marriott's Great America. Well, the one in California has been owned and operated by Cedar Fair since 2006. I just wanted to point that out. All right, we have a rare 11th stock. That's because my players are tied five to five. You at home may have already won. If you have six plus, walk away right now, end this podcast. In this podcast, you don't need to hear the end because you have already won. But Bill and Emily are tied, so we're going to go to Moderna. Moderna, of course, the COVID vaccine superstar drug maker, in the news recently for a reason I won't say because that might tilt your answer. This is a throwdown. That's the only way, sudden death, we can end the Market Cap Game Show when it's a tie. The ticker symbol is MRNA. Emily and Bill, I'm going to turn to Bill first. Bill, what is your market cap range for Moderna?
Bill Mann: I believe that it is somewhere between $31 and $41 billion.
David Gardner: Emily, 31 and 41 billion. What do you get?
Emily Flippen: Well, maybe I'm crazy, but I have a range of $65-95 billion.
David Gardner: 65-95 billion. Players at home, those who might still be tied with Bill and Emily, who didn't walk away from this podcast a minute ago.
Bill Mann: We can't. The door is locked. [laughs]
David Gardner: You're right, you can't. Is it Bill's 31-41 billion or do you want to side with Emily and her 65-95 billion? You need to say one of their names. 3, 2, 1. All right. You're locked in as well. The market cap for Moderna is 39.21 billion, inside Bill's range of 31-41. Bill Mann, you have, in overtime, won this Silver Jubilee edition of the Market Cap Game Show.
Bill Mann: I am now the holder of the Lance Crumbley Cup and the Silver Jubilee Crown. I could not be more proud. [laughs] Emily, that was super fun.
Emily Flippen: That was amazing. Congrats, Bill.
David Gardner: Thank you both. The final accounting is then this: Bill, 5.5; Emily, 5. But Bill and Emily, and I know that we're not playing this game for each other. We're playing for you. How did you score, dear Fool? Dear listener at home, we hope that you outscored all of us. The purpose of the Market Cap Game Show is to make more popular, I'm never going to say as popular as a TV reality show, but to make more popular market caps, the real value of stocks on the market that most people don't understand, except that you do understand because you just listen to us for about an hour, and I hope you scored at least a few points this week and maybe beat one or both of our competitors. Bill and Emily, you both distinguished yourselves again as worthy champions. Bill, there still is no crown, but you have the crown. Congratulations from Marriott to Cedar Fair and everything in between, with the COVID-19 vaccine thrown in. Well, again, thank you to my guests, Bill and Emily. A quick reminder next week is the Rule Breaker Investing mailbag, [email protected] our address. If you have reactions to today's show, including any past game show appearances you may have made, dear listener, perhaps thereby hangs the tail, we'd love to hear from you. Maybe you were moved in some way by my fantastic conversation with Arthur Brooks last week, or our stock stories the week before, or my authors in August. I'd love to hear your questions, reflections, stories, thoughts. Send us an email, [email protected] or you can tweet us. I mean, post to us on Twitter, I mean X, where we are @RBIPodcast. In the meantime, Emily, thank you.
Emily Flippen: Thank you.
David Gardner: Good luck in Fiji.
Emily Flippen: I appreciate it.
David Gardner: Bill, thank you.
Bill Mann: Thank you, David.
David Gardner: To our listeners at home, thank you and Fool on.
